Search found 75 matches

by stpeter
Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:36 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: SCV in the GB
Replies: 8
Views: 5330

SCV in the GB

For those of you following the Golden Butterfly portfolio: what funds or ETFs do you use for the small cap value portion of the equities barbell? I invest with Schwab and their Small-Cap Index Fund (SWSSX) is designed to track the Russell 2000, but as far as I can see its annual returns are not that...
by stpeter
Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 26489

2022 Returns

It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?
by stpeter
Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold vs. Bitcoin as Portfolio Diversifier
Replies: 1
Views: 1763

Gold vs. Bitcoin as Portfolio Diversifier

"Goldman Sachs expects gold, with its real demand drivers, to outperform the highly volatile bitcoin in the long term"...

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-12-12/
by stpeter
Sat Dec 10, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 39272

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Since 2013 (Yellen), and there's been a return to a semi-pegging, a multi-facet gold/dollar standard and as such gold has been flatish/range-bound. Not doing what otherwise might have been expected. As such the PP would seem to be performing more as-expected in other countries, whilst not so in the...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 3497

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 1:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 3497

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 3497

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve ...
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 8:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 3497

Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

With stocks, long-term bonds, and gold all down (not to mention GDP), I wonder if we're in one of those rare tight-money recessions that Harry Browne talked about...
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 8:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 9574

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Don wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:16 am I'm looking at a market crash ahead. Which asset in the PP will save us? Also, any non PP assets, possibly like TBT?
If the stock market crashes far enough (and who knows if it will?), you'll hit your rebalance bands and buy low. There's a reason this forum is called Gyroscopic Investing. :-)
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 6:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 18
Views: 4991

Re: Overseas Gold? 2022

However, being serious now. Watch the Australian Elections this year. If socialist nutcases get into Government, I would re-evaluate storing Gold here. Between the right-wing Russophiles and left-wing wokesters that have taken over both US parties...and apparently everywhere else....where the hell ...
by stpeter
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 9457

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

It's not clear to me how I-bonds are deep cash, given that they mature in 30 years. What am I missing? You mean as opposed to being deep bonds? A bond matures in 30 years and you have no option to cash out early (not including the coupon) other than selling it, and its value can gyrate wildly. The ...
by stpeter
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 9457

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

The only thing I would quibble about is that this thread belongs with Cash, rather than Bonds. ;) I struggled over that, JHogue. :-) You’re right. Even though i*Bonds are often used for deep cash and certainly not for what we know as the Bond portion of the pp, I figured “Bond” is right in the name...
by stpeter
Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid SORR?
Replies: 33
Views: 7688

Re: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid S

Dollar cost average in, twice a year, over the next 2 years, might be a prudent way to go. When I got started with the PP a while back, I DCA'd quarterly over 2 years. I rested easier that way, and to me the PP is the sleep-well-at-night portfolio so it all fit together. You have to do what you're ...
by stpeter
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent portfolio poll
Replies: 28
Views: 9990

Re: Permanent portfolio poll

4x25 with 30/20% rebalance bands. Keeping it simple. :-)
by stpeter
Sat Jan 02, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 15
Views: 6607

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

21.42%. Rebalancing in early April helped!
by stpeter
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Permanent Portfolio book: "Investing Equanimity"
Replies: 42
Views: 28313

Re: New Permanent Portfolio book: "Equanimity Investing"

Way cool, and congratulations! I'd like to point out to everyone that blue_ruin's other book looks pretty good as well: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07RV5QM1Y/ Wow, yes. Can't wait to read this book. BTW blue_ruin your Amazon author page still shows only the one book, so you might want to upd...
by stpeter
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Commercial Gold Vaults in USA
Replies: 3
Views: 2555

Re: Commercial Gold Vaults in USA

Actually, when you look at the language of the law that created the Texas Bullion Depository, the act refers to any "gold depository in Texas." That would include the Texas Bullion Depository which is owned by Texas Precious Metals. "Q: Who owns the Texas Bullion Depository? A: The T...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
Replies: 15
Views: 7799

Re: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help

Rebalance (i.e. distribute excess cash among the other assets) every so often - no need to wait until you hit the rebalancing band with cash. The whole thing above was great! Spelling it all out both concisely yet with detail. However, for we literalists out here, can you more precisely define &quo...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 95
Views: 64718

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Vinny, Just. Do. It. Not a simple task on my end, starting with having 7 different retirement accounts covering every possible different tax treatment for each of them. Whenever I'm going to do something of consequence I take my time to get all my questions answered, don't rush into it, and, conseq...
by stpeter
Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 31621

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended. Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%. Great find! The original paper is well worth reading: http://reso...
by stpeter
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 31621

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended. Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%. Great find! The original paper is well worth reading: http://reso...
by stpeter
Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars
Replies: 10
Views: 3832

Re: Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars

... Does anyone here on the forum price the four PP assets in terms of gold, not dollars? .. Ha! Not the assets, but I used to think about the equivalent of things like my home in ounces of gold. And my portfolio total. Problem is, I think of it in US$ first and then convert to gold using the spot ...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars
Replies: 10
Views: 3832

Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars

Several recent threads set me to thinking about the long-term decline in the value of the dollar (and other fiat currencies). Does anyone here on the forum price the four PP assets in terms of gold, not dollars? There's an interesting website pricedingold.com that shows you the value of, say, an S&a...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)
Replies: 17
Views: 7372

Re: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)

When I adopted the permanent portfolio about 5 years ago, I did a bunch of research and got most comfortable with SGOL, in large measure because they store their physical gold in Switzerland.
by stpeter
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 37
Views: 12086

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

It makes me wonder if the PP could hold up to a situation where the US is steadily diluted out of being the world reserve currency while the long-term debt cycle comes to an end. What's your prediction on which currency will replace the U.S. dollar? Euro? The euro area economy is even weaker than t...