I had a similar experience last year when I started my portfolio.  Looking backward, I had chosen the worst month of the year to start a PP; I still ended the year up 4 or 5%.  It all evens out eventually, but starting out it can be painful to watch. Starting a PP in a bad month sure beats ending a...

of his predecessors in the last 100 years, so he gets a good score on that as well. I think we end here. I respect your obvious intelligence. We have different judgments and have each stated them. We are not going convince one another of the other's judgements. Vinny Sounds fine to me. [/quote] Plu...

The original PP has been the approach most doomed to fail—going back to its authoritative critics on the epic BH thread and beyond. For years it’s been—Bond bull over, Treasuries too long, too few Stocks, too much Gold (and its followers misunderstanding the role of Gold), too much money wasted in ...

Budd, you may find it helpful to take a look at your comments the last time you got nervous... See: Sep 26, 2011: Weather the Storm... ...and: Sep 28, 2011: Hey Look... ...and: Aug 11, 2011: Nauseous We all remember what happened after August, last year. The PP turned out to be the one of the best ...

I'll conclude with these questions (and you can tell me if they are valid questions to ask at all). Are these good measures for our president, who in this particular case happens to be Trump? 1. Would you want your child to marry him? 2. Would you want to be a co-worker of his? 3. And, maybe the bi...

tech, Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree. What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then? Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures. What do you consider "welfare expenditures?"  Specifically, does general infrastructure count a...

I'll conclude with these questions (and you can tell me if they are valid questions to ask at all). Are these good measures for our president, who in this particular case happens to be Trump? 1. Would you want your child to marry him? 2. Would you want to be a co-worker of his? 3. And, maybe the bi...

<snip> I'll conclude with these questions (and you can tell me if they are valid questions to ask at all). Are these good measures for our president, who in this particular case happens to be Trump? 1. Would you want your child to marry him? 2. Would you want to be a co-worker of his? 3. And, maybe...

tech, Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree. What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then? Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures. What do you consider "welfare expenditures?"  Specifically, does general infrastructure count a...

I am one of the last to be a fan of government intervention in the marketplace, but I am becoming more and more a fan of the citizen's dividend.  Drop the minimum wage and do the dividend.  It would seem to me that the dividend is far less disruptive to markets, pricing, and businesses than a minim...

I actually don't find it that hard to follow the Golden Rule, because I believe that what you do is what will be done to you, as a law of nature, although sometimes there is a time lag. Thus, being mean or vicious, or even merely disregarding the effects of my actions on others, will harm me. My re...

Child sacrifice then and now January 24, 2014 By Gene Veith Collin Garbarino tells of a controversy in archaeology about whether or not the ancient Carthaginians practiced child sacrifice, as the Romans always said they did.  Recently, evidence has arisen that they did, in fact, sacrifice children....

But weren't per-civilization mankind also deeply religious; they completely believed there were Gods watching over them (they had the fear of God).  I personally think that the Moral Law or Golden Rule is one of the strangest mysteries in the Universe.  Here is a quote from Immanuel Kant: “Two thin...

Louis C.K. - If Murder Was Legal (3:25) I like Louis so much, I made him my avatar earlier in the week. :-) Still? When the headlines came out about him in 2017, I had no idea who he was. And, this is the above is the first time I've read anyone write about him (aside from just seeing those headlin...

That's my subtitle for Scott Alexander's Considerations on Cost Disease. If you read one thing this week, make it this. Do it, then come back. Read it yet? No? Go read it! Okay, so construction, infrastructure, health care, education, and a lot of other things are getting more expensive way faster ...

fabian had a pretty good track  record back in the day with his moving average system .  his newsletter was hot . his thing was he would sacrifice the 10% at the top and bottom and you get the 80% in the middle . well markets whip sawed the model so bad it fell way behind . the markets were acting ...

well whatever works .  i never go in our out . we alter allocations a little or swap fund types but trying to bet the ranch on in or out of equity's is a game i have not played since fabians can't lose  moving average newsletter . that was until we lost  ha ha ha I was a dedicated Dick Fabian Telep...

Can I ask what presently keeps you too busy to consider a paying job in retirement?  By the way, when I mentioned that I might take on a career that pays less, I'm thinking the pay in my new career might actually be very close to zero.  Edited to add:  What sort of health insurance did you use at a...

There is a HUGE need for this for EXACTLY people with your intent -- to first provide a service and while secondarily hopefully generating some form of income for yourself. Question now nearly six years later is....did you ever do this? I know you are still a regular contributor to the forum and I ...

1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy) 2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding") 3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only t...

Nice! Of course Biden's lap dogs (or Vinny's lap cats ;) ) won't care. https://nypost.com/2020/01/18/how-five-members-of-joe-bidens-family-got-rich-through-his-connections/ Au contraire! Me and my three cats are solidly AGAINST Biden! If it came down to him against Trump, if they could vote, they'd...

Thanks for your input, PS & WiseOne! WiseOne, I like the idea of internships and am trying to push our daughter in that direction for this summer (the one between her junior and senior years of high school). PS, I'll go with options 1,3 & 4! I love the idea of gap years and think they can a...

Wow!  Sounds great.  Any big plans? Good question...how about initial reactions for now. :-) 1. Four generation cruise (almost didn't happen as my father had a quad bypass three weeks ago, but he is progressing well and can go) 2. Landscapping a new home where I'm relocating to Too young to do noth...

OK that's it, no more early retirement for me!  Today is a total loss so might as well make frivolous posts, to say that: My department chair called me into his office (causing much anxiety) to tell me he is going to start me through the tenure process !!!  Holy bejesus...did not see this coming.  ...

I feel like retirement is a worse-case scenario. It's kind of like saying "I never found a way to make money that I really enjoyed so I saved enough to stop". ... I plan to never retire. That helps me focus on short-term goals which are vastly, vastly easier to acheive because they are ne...