Search found 1365 matches
- Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:50 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 59273
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
I propose a portfolio which is a traditional permanent portfolio mix with a bitcoin variable portfolio sidecar. Hows: 24% gold 24% cash 24% stocks 24% long term bonds 4% bitcoin Turns out the back testing is amazing. Sure, the backtesting of that portfolio would be amazing at this point. It would b...
- Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:46 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Vanguard changes 3 government bond index funds and ETFs to pure Treasury indexes
- Replies: 18
- Views: 14202
Re: Vanguard changes 3 government bond index funds and ETFs to pure Treasury indexes
Sophie, I checked out your suggestion at portfoliovisualizer.com using VTSMX for stocks, VBMFX for total bond market, VFITX for intermediate Treasuries, and VUSTX for long Treasuries. The data sets go back to 1993. Using a 60/40 split to stocks and bonds, the CAGR with total bonds is 8.40%, with int...
- Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:19 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 59273
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
Could you please explain what that means. I'm slow. Thanks!Kriegsspiel wrote:The PP has a 'duration' of longer than 5 days.
- Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:01 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 59273
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
Thanks for that great, enlightening, comforting post, Sophie!
- Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:01 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1767493
Re: The GOLD scream room
I thought you said earlier that you only have 7.5% in gold. That seems like a very modest allocation. I myself feel that 25% gold is too much. I'm aiming for about 15%, with about 2/3 of that in physical as black-swan insurance and 1/3 paper gold for re-balancing.
- Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:58 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1767493
Re: The GOLD scream room
Exactly, don't forget the historical results. We haven't seen anything with the PP that is outside the bounds of historical results. Over the medium- to long-term, however, the results are pretty good. Maybe not as good as a stock-heavy portfolio, but definitely less volatile and more consistent, wh...
- Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:11 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1767493
Re: The GOLD scream room
I'm sure those international stock funds do nothing but go up forever, and never go down.
- Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:33 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1767493
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, do you ever look at historical PP returns? As with any portfolio, the PP has times when it has drawdowns. The difference to most portfolios is that the drawdowns are smaller and less time is required to recover from them. Gold/bonds don't necessarily help the PP on the very day that stocks dro...
- Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:03 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The Bond Dream Room
- Replies: 554
- Views: 367905
Re: The Bond Dream Room
I think if you backtest the PP using 10-year Treasuries instead of 30-year Treasuries, there is not a whole lot of difference in the results.
- Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:07 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
- Replies: 72
- Views: 37358
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I've trimmed back a little in stocks and moved it to cash to make myself more comfortable. Currently at about 38% in stocks overall.
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:38 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
Moda, I agree with everything you just posted. I guess I'm just slow. For me, it took this whole Trump thing for the scales to drop off my eyes. So even though he's an odious slimeball, I'm thankful for that. Also, I agree with some of his policies regardless of his personal likeability or lack ther...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:59 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
I saw this comment posted on unz.com today and agree with it 100%: "The most important thing Trump may have accomplished is unmasking the media hypocrisy and its sheer contempt towards 80% of the country. I used to believe that the journalists were reasonable people who tried to report fairly b...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:21 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump the Civil Libertarian?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 7812
Re: Trump the Civil Libertarian?
Hmmm, I wonder, has Mexico ever meddled in US elections? Has anyone ever raised a stink about that? How about Israel?
- Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:51 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
I heard the psychiatrist's diagnosis reported on a mainstream radio station. Talk about fake news. It's ridiculous that such a thing would even get reported by a supposedly reputable news source. I can't remember which station it was. Could have been CBS or NPR. Sometimes I tune in NPR to see if the...
- Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:39 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
WiseOne, I agree 100%.
- Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Out of balance
- Replies: 55
- Views: 30363
Re: Out of balance
Think for yourself all you want, but also go back and look at the predictions for many of the last years about long bonds. The "experts" have been saying they will lose value for years, and in fact what has happened is that many years they have been the biggest winner.
- Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:27 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
Because I'm not motivated just by money. America is no longer a melting pot where immigrants are getting assimilated into a common American culture. It's now just a bunch of different races that barely know each other. A few people at the top are getting very rich, and elsewhere the middle class is ...
- Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:17 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
I saw a comment on unz.com this morning that seemed like a simple, good explanation for why the establishment doesn't like Trump: "mass immigration is all about propping up the ponzi economy by increasing population and increasing consumer demand…. consumer demand is 70% or more of the economy…...
- Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:29 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
There was no need for a war with Germany and Italy in the 1940s either. War is a racket.Kriegsspiel wrote: Americans had a lot in common with Germany and Italy in the 1940s too
- Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:21 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
Right, and all this Trump-Russia hysteria is just more of the same racket, along with trying to bring down a duly elected president as you mentioned. It would seem to me that the military-industrial complex doesn't think Trump will be sufficiently hawkish to enable them to meet their growth targets...
- Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:34 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
Right, and all this Trump-Russia hysteria is just more of the same racket, along with trying to bring down a duly elected president as you mentioned. It would seem to me that the military-industrial complex doesn't think Trump will be sufficiently hawkish to enable them to meet their growth targets.
- Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:31 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
Just for fun, I quickly looked up the military spending for 2016 for the US and Russia. One was at $69 billion and the other at $611 billion. I'm pretty sure everybody knows which country has the larger budget.
An old but good book on the subject: War Is A Racket, by Major General Smedley Butler.
An old but good book on the subject: War Is A Racket, by Major General Smedley Butler.
- Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:37 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
The whole idea that Russia is a credible threat to the U.S. is laughable on its face , and thus it seems obvious to me that it's just another bogeyman manufactured by the establishment media on behalf of the military-industrial complex. In capability, or intent? Seems like a curious statement, rega...
- Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:28 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 387867
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
The whole idea that Russia is a credible threat to the U.S. is laughable on its face, and thus it seems obvious to me that it's just another bogeyman manufactured by the establishment media on behalf of the military-industrial complex.
- Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:44 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Marc De Messel Portfolio
- Replies: 19
- Views: 14381
Re: Marc De Messel Portfolio
You mean it would be worth more than $1,000 now. Just for those who haven't noticed the incredible spike in bitcoin prices lately. I bought $300 worth of bitcoin a while back, and now it's worth over $3,000. I should probably cash it in, but I can't stop wondering whether bitcoin might go to $100,00...