Search found 4658 matches

by doodle
Sun May 23, 2021 9:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Attention, Doodle!
Replies: 7
Views: 2088

Re: Attention, Doodle!

Yeah, I'm in agreement that unemployment insurance right now is unessecary and should end...same with this eviction moratorium. There are plenty of jobs out there. I've lived in three states since the pandemic started and found jobs and worked in all of them within a few days of arriving. That said,...
by doodle
Fri May 21, 2021 10:48 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: YouTuber running for CA Governor
Replies: 1
Views: 1828

YouTuber running for CA Governor

Meet Kevin running for CA Governor. This kid has a lot of fire and a huge online presence. He might be an underdog but honestly I think Californians are so fed up with what's happening in their state he might actually have a shot. No idea what party he is running under...Although definitely pro busi...
by doodle
Thu May 20, 2021 9:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Most recent David Rosenberg interview...for those interested in listening to intelligent counterpoint to the current consensus inflationary viewpoint. Is this man just an idiot? Or perhaps the markets latest obsession is simply smoke and mirrors.. https://youtu.be/7VTHEAkCxq4 Interview starts at 11 ...
by doodle
Wed May 19, 2021 9:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 69
Views: 22180

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

The "experts" also include people like warren buffet poo pooing long bonds. Anyone experienced investor who still listens to an expert thinking they have some ability to predict future ought to have their head examined. Nobody knows!!
by doodle
Wed May 19, 2021 7:24 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 69
Views: 22180

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

Screenshot_20210519-062331.png
Screenshot_20210519-062331.png (459.62 KiB) Viewed 7836 times
by doodle
Tue May 18, 2021 7:42 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Post gold standard data
Replies: 22
Views: 6457

Post gold standard data

Is this really accurate?
hhEyOouLK_Ph_YMn5hbopwc_f4tQ3RxF2l5e0i06JM4.jpg
hhEyOouLK_Ph_YMn5hbopwc_f4tQ3RxF2l5e0i06JM4.jpg (40.11 KiB) Viewed 6457 times
by doodle
Sat May 15, 2021 10:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

A couple interesting new funds from simplify asset management that address some people's concerns here.

PFIX and SVOL

Rising rates hedge and volatility hedge.



https://www.simplify.us/news-media/sim ... ind-etfs
by doodle
Sat May 15, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1195
Views: 255428

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

the one year has tlt down about 14% despite the spike.despite rebalancing-some of it , down is down The one day has tlt up about 0.94%. Shall we look at even shorter data? 1 hr? 1 minute? If you own index funds, let's break that down too. Disney stock was down 2.45% yesterday, and if you own an S&P...
by doodle
Sat May 15, 2021 8:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

If I was a stock bug I wouldn’t be 25-40% equities. You have mentioned time and again that anyone not needing to draw on retirement funds for 10 years should be 100 percent stocks. That is recency bias. And yes, the PP because of its focus on economic states will naturally fall towards one of those...
by doodle
Sat May 15, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read You've posted 3802 times. In every single convers...
by doodle
Sat May 15, 2021 7:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

The financial experts and mainstream financial pundits have been talking about rising rates and rampant inflation for well over a decade. So far it's failed to materialize. I understand that it feels like we are going to finally be headed into that environment at long last...I get that feeling as we...
by doodle
Fri May 14, 2021 4:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

So the scenario of Congressional gridlock, evelvated debt levels, waning corporate growth and profits from years of underinvestment in physical capital, expiring stimulus and a large baby boomers retirement trend leading to a revaluation of growth prospects and a repricing of stock market vs risk fr...
by doodle
Fri May 14, 2021 2:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Ok, sure...but how exactly do you expect rates to rise given that the government debt is at nearly 30 trillion and rising? Rising rates would basically lead to increased insolvency so why hold any bonds at all if you think rates are going to rise.....unless you think that spending 30% of government ...
by doodle
Fri May 14, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

It gave good results , but again 40 years of falling interest rates does not mean interest rate sensitive assets won’t be an issue if held in abundance…. Even intermediate terms bonds and 25% gold can be overly sensitive to rates and an outsized bet on them in my opinion for what it’s worth Your ar...
by doodle
Thu May 13, 2021 9:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

We think You put to much stock in what happened in Japan or Europe the way you think we look at stocks and rates Everything the Fed has done was first done by Japan....and even more. Japanese central bank goes as far as directly purchasing stocks. For people who are dead certain we are going to spi...
by doodle
Thu May 13, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Also, I'm surprised how much confidence people have here in central banks to create inflation. We haven't seen it in Japan or Europe and so far the Fed despite big talk has missed their targets for over a decade. The latest spurt is more supply chain related than anything else.
by doodle
Thu May 13, 2021 5:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Yeah but ITTs don't move like my zeros did when covid hit. As I have mentioned over and over the rebalance from long bonds to stocks during that event was huge. All these little moves are noise. Based on all the LTT doomsdaying here my guess is we will see a pop there within the next few months...j...
by doodle
Thu May 13, 2021 11:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 27986

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Yeah but ITTs don't move like my zeros did when covid hit. As I have mentioned over and over the rebalance from long bonds to stocks during that event was huge. All these little moves are noise. Based on all the LTT doomsdaying here my guess is we will see a pop there within the next few months...ju...
by doodle
Sat May 08, 2021 3:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 19310

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

Maybe thoreau was on to something... I see young men, my townsmen, whose misfortune it is to have inherited farms, houses, barns, cattle, and farming tools; for these are more easily acquired than got rid of. Better if they had been born in the open pasture and suckled by a wolf, that they might hav...
by doodle
Sat May 08, 2021 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 19310

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

Anyone else have the feeling that houses are overated and this latest mania in them is some weird kind of cultural hysteria? I mean, it's great having a place of your own to sleep and store your shit but in general houses are a pain in the ass. Everyone I've owned was like having an 20 year old cat....
by doodle
Thu May 06, 2021 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 19310

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

On the topic of housing...for the last two years more or less I've been working in construction and from my perspective the industry is way overdue for a massive evolution. I've worked everything from custom mansions to cookie cutter developments and the inefficiency across the board is staggering. ...
by doodle
Tue May 04, 2021 9:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 19310

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

The thing I see the least value in is the cash component. In HB's times it would be earning several percent interest. One really has to work extra hard for cash returns nowadays....deep cash in I and EE bonds is no brainer...both yielding about 3.5%...perhaps slightly extending out the curve to the...
by doodle
Tue May 04, 2021 8:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 19310

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

Kriegs...thanks for references I will look more into some of those names. I definitely think that Buckminster Fullers concept of doing more with less (ephemerilization) is in full effect. Combined with moderating to shrinking demographics and the end of a long term debt cycle and the future is defin...
by doodle
Mon May 03, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 19310

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

I'm not the norm currently, but more and more people are starting to realize this endless rat race debt fueled lifestyle sucks..and furthermore is gutting our planet..who knows when cultural habits start to shift. If more and more Americans came to realize the benefits to the quality of life they co...