Many people are probably reimaging a 2008 or with these low interest rates with a potential to go negative, a japanification of the economy where the stock market will never recover and this is the 25 year ATH.

In times of deflation, indebted corporations may go bankrupt, that was why Harry Browne liked the government bonds because they can always print some more money to pay the bond holders.

We are going parabolic!!!!

I expect a crash tomorrow. Not selling anything though. The stock market is still in free fall.
Stocks down 1,2% today, that isn't an unfathomably large drop. So why are everyone panicking even more than yesterday?

I don't think it is pointless at all. Bonds are there to hedge against deflation which I am sure we will see now in 2016 as the debt and QE bubbles will be popping. When everything tanks the best asset is the fixed income, cash and bonds because everyone else will loose their shirts.

But for the long term, buy & hold portfolio, 0.96% don't fit. I'd be curious to see how Japanese PP investors have done over the past 17 years or so, their rates hit very low levels around 1999 and 2004 already. Chart of Japanese PP from 1992 to 2012: [img width=500]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jL...

A more comprehensive and up to date White paper on Adaptive Asset Allocation:
http://go.investresolve.com/AAA-2015-Download.html

I registered and downloaded, easy and very nicely described methodology. Makes me want to try it out!

And here is one of the researchers Vimeo channel: https://vimeo.com/user11908185 This kind of methodology is obviously above and beyond what Harry Browne talked about and I have no idea what he would have recommended. As far as I know, this kind of thinking wasn't developed until recently. This kind...

After a bunch of experiments I'm not sure modifying the Funnel chart is the best way to show the data, but I'm working on a new calculator to address individual annual returns compared to history more directly.  The goal is to address the question "was last year normal" in a straightforwa...

That's why I find Chart 8 to be so impressive: smoother growth, smaller drawdowns, and higher CAGR! Does anyone know how exactly to implement a 7% target risk PP?  How is the volatility calculated?  It seems that only the percentage of treasury bills was varied in that Japan example; stocks, bonds,...

That image is not the standard 4x25% Permanent Portfolio. That charts shows a portfolio that adjusts the proportions of each assets each month in tandem with rebalancing taking into account the recent volatility of each asset, rebalancing according to volatility rather than capital to try to not let...

A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or som...

Another portfolio for your site:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rTBEZSL7-4

The nice thing with an index is that it is dynamic so your holdings will change iver time to represent the best corporations.

LazyInvestor wrote: Just imagine the upside at the point when 30 yrs German bonds are paying -2.0%. You'll have great returns if you buy at 1%.

I believe bonds will stay around this level for the next 10 to 20 years, that was what they did last time after the great depression.

Another question I am mulling over, is it better to have the very volatile USD denominated TLT 20+ years bonds rather than the 2-10 years bond mutual fund available to me in Sweden.

[img width=500]http://i.imgur.com/Aif92pz.png[/img]

I noticed the Cash and Bonds mutual funds had been paying out dividends so after correcting the NAV I got this chart. The stock data is also without dividends but I can't find any data where the dividends are included so the CAGR ought to be higher and the Permanent Portfolio ought to have an  even ...

The SWE-PP is simply depositing 25% in each asset at the first day and letting it run it's course The SWE-PP (Daily rebalance) I add the change for all the assets, divide by 4 and apply that total to the portfolio value for each day. This gives a much smoother ride, of course one can not rebalance d...

jafs wrote: Why would you look at a PP portfolio without re-balancing??

The idea of re-balancing periodically is an integral part of the concept.

I haven't figured out how to do the rebalancing in a spreadsheet.

This is a Swedish Permanent Portfolio without rebalancing, Admittedly smoother than an all stock portfolio but it is still a very bumpy ride and very prolonged declines. [img width=700]http://i.imgur.com/qYb3fcx.png[/img] Dear Lord: Your image has been degunked.  :) For future reference, have a look...

I didn't suffer heavy losses in 2015 thanks to the permanent portfolio. However, it was still a difficult year of investment for me. I am still afraid to get started with my investments again. So far, I have only bought gold and bonds because the stock market has been bearish in Europe and Sweden s...

I am very comfortable using ETFs and mutual funds.

I didn't suffer heavy losses in 2015 thanks to the permanent portfolio. However, it was still a difficult year of investment for me. I am still afraid to get started with my investments again. So far, I have only bought gold and bonds because the stock market has been bearish in Europe and Sweden si...

Another feature which I would think it would be cool is to have the calculations hyperlinkable.

Probably not possible using embedded excel sheet but if a Javascript or a server side calculation was used, it could be done linkable and the the URI specify which asset and which proportions.

Value and money are two different things. Money is objective and value is subjective.
The value is determined by the preference of a person. Someone who dislikes the house or have no need for a house will value that house much lower than someone who wants the house.

Perhaps it is better to simply get a passive global index fund. That way it can re-balance itself each year if one region or the other grows in a higher rate than another.