If we're going to blame politicians for inflation we should also blame them for every other economic condition, since their decisions precipitate them. Singling inflation out doesn't make sense, and neither does the "buying inflation from the arsonist" dig against TIPS, which of course app...

I did what dualstow did: 3 month autorolled T bills in my Fidelity investment account, in 3 aliquots roughly 1 month apart. Figuring I'll add to it as new cash comes in. Sophie, it's good to hear from you! I hope you don't mind a question: do you buy T bills on the secondary market or at the auctio...

For anyone who wants to go further down the rabbit hole with TIPS I posted Tyler's blog post on Bogleheads and there's a good bit of discussion there (with Tyler participating). I especially recommend the posts from vineviz, who may be the single most savvy bond expert (among many) on that forum: h...

Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...

Tyler (as usual) has a thoughtful essay on the pros and cons of TIPS in Portfolio Charts. https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/09/27/all-about-tips-real-returns-and-inflated-expectations/#takeaways Perfect! Wish I was able to read that earlier this year before putting a bunch into DIPSX (inflation prot...

Thanks Kbg and Cortopassi for sharing your thoughts. I don't know whether my thoughts here will add any clarity or just add to the murkiness but I can certainly see why there's a thread on Bogleheads at the moment asking whether folks would go all-in on TIPS for their fixed income when/if real rates...

Why do BHs love them...they eliminate inflation risk which is a HUGE benefit. And yet I see that iShares TIPS Bond ETF is down 17.78% YTD. And yes, I get that the performance of a fund is different than buying a bond and holding it to maturity. Still, that just looks to me like another asset that i...

Corto, I buy Treasury bills, but only after I have completely maxed out my annual purchases of I-bonds. I hold short duration T-bills to maturity so I know their precise yield when I buy them. As you have discovered, investors cannot buy tax deferred T-bills through TreasuryDirect. I do not buy TIP...

My contention that there is asymmetric risk in the decision to allocate one's fixed income in nominal bonds, such as TBM, or inflation-linked bonds, such as TIPS. With individual TIPS held to maturity , their real return known with precision at the time of purchase. There is no risk to the future b...

Good post on Tipswatch about how to take advantage of the best short-term Treasury rates since 2007. Still losing ~5% to inflation but considering what's happening to every other asset class they may well be the least worse investment of 2022. https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/21/short-term-treasurys-ev...

I appreciate your insightful comments joypog! I do want to point out though that the main reason TIPS didn't perform as well as LTT's during the 2008 market crash was Lehman Brothers. This post from Adam and Movement Capital tells the sordid story: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4278351-largest-ar...

I think the better PV tool for thinking about TIPS on is the asset correlation tool (this link is goes back to 2000 so it covers two recessions). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSMX+VIPSX+CASHX+VUSTX&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=60 In a ris...

[ Completely agree on the backtests. I just ran the numbers for what was available on portfoliovisualizer, and thought there were interesting results in how close the overall final values were, but also that the TIPS didn't provide the same diversification benefit as nominals did, at least for the ...

Definitely interesting points, and something for all of us to consider. But I just continue to have a hard time digesting the fact that the market isn't accurately pricing in all known possibilities and delivering up prices that provide us with a '50/50' situation as far as which will perform bette...

Excellent new post from David Enna at Tipswatch: https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/18/this-weeks-10-year-tips-reopening-auction-is-worth-a-serious-look/ Enna is always wisely moderate in his claims and recommendations but reading between the lines here there really aren't any meaningful advantages to no...

If it's any consolation:

https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios

Hi, I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but I've found an interesting synthesis of the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly. I love the simplicity of the PP, but I'm not a fan of LTTs even though I know the arguments in their favor (liability matching, especially as TIPS, and bond conv...

Hi, I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but I've found an interesting synthesis of the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly. I love the simplicity of the PP, but I'm not a fan of LTTs even though I know the arguments in their favor (liability matching, especially as TIPS, and bond conv...

Interesting idea seajay. Perhaps also worthy of considering might be to load up on 10 year TIPS in lieu of part or all of the regular bonds. .63% + the inflation adjustment makes them considerably more attractive than iBonds (not least because of the lack of purchase limits) and quite possibly bette...

Good article confirming Tyler’s view that cash is greatly under appreciated as an inflation hedge. :

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1 ... ource=link

Clyatt’s book is actually called “Work Less, Live More” and he continues to maintain an eponymous website: http://www.workless-livemore.com/ Tyler at Portfolio Charts has a nice post about Bob on his site and also includes his Sandwich Portfolio. Bob’s a pioneer in the ER world and his book, though ...

Interesting article from a newsletter for financial advisors I follow: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/06/10/how-i-protect-against-the-coming-market-crash?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP+Newsletter+2022-06-14+5897&bt_ee=UzxCBJmJf9k5VS7MqJVxSEHH5VGa...

If you had to sell a huge chunk of your portfolio in 08-09, would you have been better off with LTTs Kbg’s new post in response to this is excellent. I also suggest reading the Morningstar article I posted the link to in my “Bills, Bonds & Cash” post in this forum. LTT’s did slightly better tha...

People should never focus on assets in a portfolio...they should focus on the portfolio...so let's do this which explains why it doesn't make much difference. Duration (making numbers up) LTTs 20 ITTs 10 Cash 0 25/25 = 50/50 for cash & bonds...20+0/2 = 10...voila...ITTs Ideal duration for ITT’s...