Search found 516 matches

by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's had to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 7768

Re: Who's had to rebalance?

Thanks Dieter! I was going off of Tyler's one month chart: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/asset-allocation-in-the-most-painful-month/ But you're right, with such wild swings it's a moving target. SCV has indeed been getting killed and that being the case along with (to a lesser degree) the 4...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's had to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 7768

Re: Who's had to rebalance?

It's kind of you to share your thinking about this Sophie! You've long been one of the most insightful posters on the forum so reading that you're not certain either is helpful. As I mentioned earlier in this thread my thought for the moment anyway is to treat my GB allocation, which I still believe...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's had to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 7768

Re: Who's had to rebalance?

I've been looking to transfer from PP to GB for a while now. It may be time to start that process while rebalancing. I've moved in the opposite direction here - not that I have a crystal ball. But the GB tilts towards prosperity and that sure doesn't seem to be in the cards anytime soon. Not sellin...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 31
Views: 14190

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

When it comes to being a voice of financial sanity and reason in these unprecedented times you're the CDC, WHO and Dr. Anthony Fauci all rolled into one Tyler. Thank you so much.
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears
Replies: 23
Views: 10039

Re: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears

The last thing I would do with T bill money is put it in a bank! Are you serious???? If we slide into a depression and banks start failing with the federal government already having spent trillions on stimulus packages, I'm not sure the FDIC guarantee is going to mean much. I had in mind watching t...
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears
Replies: 23
Views: 10039

Re: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears

The last thing I would do with T bill money is put it in a bank! Are you serious???? If we slide into a depression and banks start failing with the federal government already having spent trillions on stimulus packages, I'm not sure the FDIC guarantee is going to mean much. I had in mind watching t...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350692

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I'd saved this from earlier in this now epically-long thread: "Per the quote below, and others from the thread,Sophie recommends 30% re-balancing bands [20% plus or minus 30% of 20% (=6%), meaning a range of 14% - 26%]. You might wonder, as I did, why she did not recommend a 40% re-balancing band, s...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350692

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Nice charts!

I’m curious about why you choose different rebalancing bands for stocks.
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350692

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Things are changing so fast it's hard to really know but my best guess in what are clearly early days for this pandemic is that we're already in recession and quite possibly headed towards something much more like the Great Depression. Even Mnuchin, who seems even more out of his depth than usual no...
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears
Replies: 23
Views: 10039

Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears

Just got this notice in my email since I had auto-rollover going for T bills there: "As we evaluate the current climate, we feel that upcoming Treasury auctions could possibly produce a negative interest rate. Participating in a Treasury auction with a negative interest rate would result in the loss...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Ok, everyone, time to go Treasury-only MMFs
Replies: 95
Views: 40363

Re: Ok, everyone, time to go Treasury-only MMFs

Wanted to point out that VUSXX isn't technically a pure Treasury MM fund. From the fund's description on Vanguard: "The fund invests solely in high-quality, short-term money market securities whose interest and principal payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Under ...
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?
Replies: 15
Views: 6086

Re: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?

And meanwhile the Fed cut interest rates to zero tonight (must've not had anything better to do on a Sunday) and the futures markets responded by indicating opening limit down.

What's the old curse about living in interesting times?
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?
Replies: 15
Views: 6086

Re: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?

OK normally I avoid cross-posting between this forum and others but this is pretty irresistible. Real all the way through as it's the reference to the performance of Dalio's "All Weather" portfolio (which of course is very PP-esque) vs. his actively-managed fund that's the kicker. https://www.bogleh...
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?
Replies: 15
Views: 6086

Re: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?

Some sage (and quite funny, provided you don't mind some wry black humor) commentary on the current situation from Jonathan Clements:

https://humbledollar.com/2020/03/grin-and-bear-it/
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?
Replies: 15
Views: 6086

Is there a more perfect "bunker" in light of Coronovirus?

There's been a bit of discussion about the simultaneous tanking of long-term Treasuries, stocks and gold last week but nothing extensive. From what I can tell the reasons for this relatively rare situation are complex and include insufficient liquidity in the Treasury market, massive redemptions fro...
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350692

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Thanks Tyler, thanks dragoncar! I'm not ready to make any changes to the GB and it's always good during times like these to review the careful thought that went into creating it. As always I'm grateful for the discussion and in times like these especially appreciate your pioneering work Tyler. Harry...
by Kevin K.
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350692

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

The SCV underperformance vs. TSM is indeed dramatic and has been for years now. Tyler's comment on his site about the theory behind the GB: "The large/small barbell works well for this but other options are also fine. The permanence of the value premium is also debatable, but it is not central to th...
by Kevin K.
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 3971

Re: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund

I've followed Wellesley closely for years and of course greatly admire its track record but wanted to share this post by the excellent personal finance writer Darrow Kirkpatrick about Wellesley over the years (it's a major part of his portfolio). I'll post a link to the whole post so you can see his...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stay cool...
Replies: 39
Views: 18685

Re: Stay cool...

Thanks for the timely and thoughtful post Craig! It's also an opportune moment to thank you for introducing me to the Permanent Portfolio and Harry Browne many years ago on that epic thread over on the Bogleheads forum. Your writing has been and remains a light in the darkness and has saved me from ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 8702

Re: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

Thanks Tyler and Sophie for your thoughts. Well if there ever was going to be a comprehensive article on gold you'd probably be the one to write it Tyler - in what must surely be entire minutes of free time leftover after your prodigious ongoing efforts on Portfolio Charts! ;) I just wish writers li...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 8702

A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

This article came my way by a site I actually do respect (caniretireyet.com) but the author clearly spent all of 2 minutes on the Portfolio Charts site and has never read a book on the PP. Still it is sure to be influential and I guess if it gets a few folks thinking non-phobically about including s...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Auto-rollover for Treasuries and CDs at Schwab
Replies: 3
Views: 2952

Auto-rollover for Treasuries and CDs at Schwab

Just received notice from Schwab that it's now possible to set up auto-rollover for T-bills bought at auction and CD's. I know other brokerages have offered this for some time but it's nice to see them doing so. Schwab's SCHO short-term Treasury ETF is quite good but I'll take direct ownership and n...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Gold and Australia Fires
Replies: 8
Views: 4305

Re: Perth Gold and Australia Fires

Thanks Hal, thanks everyone!

Really sorry to see that beautiful country going through such hell.
by Kevin K.
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Gold and Australia Fires
Replies: 8
Views: 4305

Perth Gold and Australia Fires

I feel a bit guilty even posing this question considering the horrific circumstances Australians are dealing with at the moment, but it did occur to me to wonder if there was now a downside to holding gold at Perth Mint (e.g. in AAAU) given that the country is basically on fire? Obviously the vaults...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Better to hold two gold funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 9296

Re: Better to hold two gold funds?

Thanks!