Search found 730 matches
- Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:47 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
- Replies: 1173
- Views: 1002963
Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II
IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
- Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:08 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
- Replies: 1173
- Views: 1002963
Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II
IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
- Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:44 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
- Replies: 1173
- Views: 1002963
Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II
IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
- Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:02 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
- Replies: 1173
- Views: 1002963
Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II
The way everyone is coming together to boycott Russia is a beautful thing. I hate what it’s doing to the average Russian but if Putin goes down, maybe it’ll be better for them too in the long run. John Bolton was interviewed on C-Span today. He quoted Woodrow Wilson: A nation that is boycotted is a...
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:01 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
- Replies: 1173
- Views: 1002963
Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II
You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country. Maybe....but it's just as possible that he was insisti...
- Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:20 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
- Replies: 5
- Views: 9965
Re: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
If I felt compelled to do something (an options + QQQ...and/or a variant of QQQ) like this, I wouldn't fool around with deep ITM puts (i.e. puts that are far in the money because they are above the current price of the underlying asset). I wouldn't mess with puts that are ITM at all. Instead, I migh...
- Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:13 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How do annual rebalanced allocations like Golden Butterfly compare with monthly TAA
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1663
Re: How do annual rebalanced allocations like Golden Butterfly compare with monthly TAA
article here https://i.ibb.co/j8bXmW7/DMS-vs-Golden-Butterfly.png https://i.ibb.co/7nGf1HF/Screen-Shot-2022-02-20-at-2-29-02-PM.jpg Just curious....how does the 60/40 compare--in terms of annual CAGR, MaxDD, alpha, Sharpe, Sortino, Ulcer Index, etc--with, say, an annually rebalanced blend of 80% IT...
- Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:23 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
- Replies: 14
- Views: 3938
Re: Re: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
Housing alone is up tremendously. Both in purchase prices and in rents. Rents are nuts right now. Food, up a lot. Bacon is often $10 a pound. Fuel, up a lot. Cars and trucks are at unimaginable levels. Clothing seems to be up at some places, but probably not much overall. But yeah, other than housi...
- Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:27 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
- Replies: 14
- Views: 3938
Re: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
I don’t usually worry about what the numbers really are. But I decided to see what shadowstats.com has right now. Official inflation: 7.5% If using <1990 method: 10% If using <1980 method: 15% I feel certain we are in true double digits. I can't walk a mile in your shoes so I can't say whether your...
- Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:39 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds
- Replies: 10
- Views: 2450
Re: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds
If they raised their wages they would find that at the new higher wage there wasn't a shortage of workers any more. If there was still a shortage at that wage they would need to raise it until the market cleared. Ya, generally true. Except they would then also have to raise the price of their food ...
- Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:53 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2022 PP predictions
- Replies: 44
- Views: 9664
Re: 2022 PP predictions
"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'": https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-retirement-catastrophe-us-economy-mcdonalds-ed-rensi-2022-1 Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers"...
- Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:05 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: PFFD Dividend ETF
- Replies: 14
- Views: 3366
Re: PFFD Dividend ETF
Wondering on anyone's thoughts on ETFs like PFFD, currently 5.03% yield, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFFD?p=PFFD&.tsrc=fin-srch Amazingly stable, other than a sharp drop in Mar 2020. 0.23 expense ratio. There are others I am looking at, PGX, SPFF, DIV, SDIV (others??) I've said a few times ...
- Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:35 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1241
Re: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
Happy New Year, My Juicy PP returned 11.03% for year 2021. I updated my website with the returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html Take care. Two quick questions: 1. What are you using for Int'l small (SCZ) prior to 1975? We have good Int'l small data back that far (i.e. 1975 and aft...
- Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:15 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
- Replies: 46
- Views: 12844
Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates
The term safe withdrawal rate rates means something very specific … It is what it took to get through the worst outcomes we have had to date for a retirement period . It specifically pertains to 1907 , 1929 , 1937 , 1965 ,1966 . It took around 3.60% inflation adjusted to squeak through Today we loo...
- Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:47 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Yay PP!
- Replies: 268
- Views: 61634
Re: Yay PP!
I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
- Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:14 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Yay PP!
- Replies: 268
- Views: 61634
Re: Yay PP!
I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
- Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:24 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
- Replies: 46
- Views: 12844
Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates
50/50 to 60/40 OK, I just re-checked my spreadsheets I used to calculate this and not only did a 60/40 or 50/50 US stock/ITT portfolio survive 30 years at an inflation-adjusted 4% withdrawal, it survived 40 years (well, it would've survived even more than that....I stopped the test at 1976 because ...
- Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:36 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
- Replies: 46
- Views: 12844
Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates
To hold 4% over 30 years takes a 2% real return the first 15 years . But that could leave you with a buck the 31st year . So the balance is important too since we have to cover unexpected spending too . So it is easy to monitor along the way …certainly if five years in you are below that average a ...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:58 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
It’s unexpected inflation, not high inflation that according to the PP Bible motivates investors to buy gold. Inflation readings are higher than ever and real rates are negative. What else does gold need to move? Should I wait until inflation is at 10% and bonds <1% to catch a bid. If that’s the ca...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:12 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
That is my gripe ..real returns which are supposed to be what gold really seems to respond to as per Tyler’s article ,has been awful as real returns grow worse and worse on cash instruments. I mean if not now , when for gold ? At least show us something in a move up ,right ? Exactly, the economic c...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:38 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
It’s unexpected inflation, not high inflation that according to the PP Bible motivates investors to buy gold. Inflation readings are higher than ever and real rates are negative. What else does gold need to move? Should I wait until inflation is at 10% and bonds <1% to catch a bid. If that’s the ca...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:20 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you. But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing. Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:14 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you. But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing. Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:07 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
I think it has to do with investors realizing that the economy is weak, the individual is struggling and any rate hikes will result in a catastrophic outcome. No one believes the FED’s bullshit and continue to buy LTT’s accordingly. The economy is weak? Huh?!? Unemployment is at 4.2%, employers in ...
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:52 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1748491
Re: The GOLD scream room
But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you. But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing. Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless...