Search found 730 matches
- Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:57 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
- Replies: 22
- Views: 5746
Re: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
Fourth, when has a diversified portfolio of equities EVER gone down in real inflation-adjusted value value over 15 or 16 years? This actually was the case from 1966 to 1981 (inclusive) using S&P 500 data. So that is a 16-year period with negative real returns. Source: https://www.officialdata.o...
- Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:42 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
- Replies: 22
- Views: 5746
Re: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
Interesting question. Stocks, stocks, and more stocks. Even though it's nice that they may be too young to pay taxes on dividends for a while, I think I would go with two slices: 1) a core made of an index fund, like total market or small cap blend. 85% of the starting portfolio in this core. 2) so...
- Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:55 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Another IRS attack on gold coins
- Replies: 8
- Views: 3322
Re: Another IRS attack on gold coins
Shrugged – I agree in general but if most of your savings are in a 401 or IRA, then it is hard to avoid having gold there. KBG – Yes, the title sounds like click bait but it actually reflects my contempt for the IRS and its methods. Now, I managed to find a detailed analysis of this decision prepar...
- Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:49 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Markel Analysis PE of 7.
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1439
Re: Markel Analysis PE of 7.
As someone who basically never sells the VP side of the portfolio, I try to buy things that I feel are high quality, durable, a good price, stable, etc, etc… TLDR What do folks think of Markel? I believe the PE is hovering around 7. The management has been around for a long time, I’m a fan of Tom G...
- Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:13 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
- Replies: 1909
- Views: 433415
Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Today's reminder that the regime wants you dead. The virus exists, but the pandemic mainly exists between your ears. https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/dying-covid-19-patient-recovers-after-court-orders-hospital-administer-ivermectin My own personal opinion is that if someone wants to use ivermecti...
- Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:04 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3809
Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
D1984/Pug, I'm not sure geography rules will really do anything. I sat through a lecture by Charlie Cook (of The Cook Report fame) about 15 years ago and he mentioned that with the advent of highly precise geographic systems and data mining the ability to draw a congressional district the way you w...
- Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:04 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3809
Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
I stand corrected, nut job regardless. Having said the above, if I were the next Republican speaker I’d find a couple of democrats who made some outrageous statements and strip them of their committee assignments. I’d probably keep doing it until several were out. Then I’d ask the dems, when does t...
- Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:14 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
- Replies: 26
- Views: 7016
Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
That’s an amazing portfolio seajay. “The Golden Swedroe”? I initially thought your chosen backtesting time frame was responsible for the results but that’s not so. Impressive - though I’ve never met a retiree who could live with that kind of tracking error. The returns on this one are actually pret...
- Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:16 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Utilities: A Diversifier
- Replies: 3
- Views: 2082
Re: Utilities: A Diversifier
You might want to backtest beyond a period of only generally falling rates (which we have had for the last 35 to 40 years) since utility performance was drastically different (and drastically worse) during periods of rising rates and rising inflation (like the mid-1960s to 1980) than it was during t...
- Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:19 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Correlation coefficient finding software or website?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1624
Correlation coefficient finding software or website?
OK, here is the hypothetical situation: Say I have four asset classes and I want to find the exact blend of them that is closest in returns on a monthly basis (i.e. has the highest correlation to the fifth asset) to another asset class (or closest to inflation, or closest to the price of oil, etc......
- Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:33 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%
- Replies: 35
- Views: 11551
Re: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%
Glad I decided to buy in October after all since fixed rate is 0. I really can't begin to predict what rate will be in another year. Probably back to the normal 1% though. The fixed rate portion will be back to 1%....or the inflation rate portion will be back to 1%? IIRC, the fixed rate was only 0....
- Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:50 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Martin Armstrong on Australia
- Replies: 7
- Views: 3161
Re: Martin Armstrong on Australia
despite him making his clients less money (even before fees) than they would've gotten in a plain boring world index fund. Gold has returned almost 8% annualized over the time period since 2006. I believe a World Stock Index fund returned the same (but with slightly worse drawdowns) during that sam...
- Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:26 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
- Replies: 88
- Views: 31839
Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
One, how many of the transactions in Bitcoin so far are for actual goods or services and not just speculative buying and selling of Bitcoin for short-term investment/speculation purposes? How, does this compare to the amount of goods and services bought in, say, USD each day? Two, how is Bitcoin ch...
- Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:41 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
- Replies: 88
- Views: 31839
Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
How could I possibly be asking this question? Easy. One, how many of the transactions in Bitcoin so far are for actual goods or services and not just speculative buying and selling of Bitcoin for short-term investment/speculation purposes? How, does this compare to the amount of goods and services ...
- Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:58 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
- Replies: 88
- Views: 31839
Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
What I am asking is this...what is going to make people one day en-masse decide to start spending/earning in BTC or another crypto instead of, say, US Dollars? I cant tell where you are coming from on this. Bitcoin is a trillion dollar network and has been growing exponentially since its inception....
- Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:39 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
- Replies: 88
- Views: 31839
Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Why would an average American want to stop using dollars for everyday purchases and start using BTC? What can/could incent them to do that? That's what I meant by "killer app". So in that case, the "killer app" is gold replacement for the modern age? Fair enough, but in that cas...
- Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:29 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
- Replies: 88
- Views: 31839
Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
1. Does it have a (at least nominal) positive expected return over the long run 2. Does it have an uncorrelated return profile with most/all the other assets in the portfolio. 1. Yes, because it has deflationary economics. 2. This is a good point, because currently we have inflationary economics in...
- Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
- Replies: 88
- Views: 31839
Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Thanks for think links. I actually don't think that this is a generational issue but just a matter of what the fundamental nature of gold and bitcoin are. I fully expect bitcoin and gold to exist almost with an even split market cap once everything stabilizes because there's really no significant d...
- Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:27 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Australian stock index returns (daily or monthly) - a question
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1014
Australian stock index returns (daily or monthly) - a question
Just a quick question for any Aussies we might have on this board (or anyone else who might have access to this kind of info): Do you know of any source for Australian stock return data (i.e. TR with dividends reinvested) or even just price-only data (i.e. just the share price of the index with no d...
- Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:50 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
- Replies: 42
- Views: 12159
Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
For the method I outlined earlier and from 1900 ... https://i.postimg.cc/Kc1LKqdW/stochastic-silver-us-stock-TBills-instead-of-silver-pre-1934-us-and-us-inflation.png 4% was more a PWR, and in one case you ended with over seven times the inflation adjusted start date portfolio value after 4% SWR wi...
- Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:25 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
- Replies: 42
- Views: 12159
Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
all irrelevent since the math is the math as to what is needed for 4% swr to hold. that is a 2-1/2% real return min the first 15 years . it does not matter how you want to get to it ELI5. If US stocks return, say 1.4% real annually on average (CAGR) for the next 15 years and bonds return, say, 0.3%...
- Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
- Replies: 42
- Views: 12159
Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
It wasn’t returns that killed off those failing years , it was the sequences of those returns and real returns… safe withdrawal rates are based not on average returns but "worst case scenario" returns (at least, the worst we've seen in history) In fact if you look at the 30 year returns f...
- Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:27 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Martin Armstrong on Australia
- Replies: 7
- Views: 3161
Re: Martin Armstrong on Australia
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/australia-oceania/australia-committing-economic-suicide/ So... if you live in a small economy, then some international diversification is advisable. Take a bow Smithy => https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=11920&...
- Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
- Replies: 54
- Views: 21369
Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
The rate is set every six months and you get that rate for six months regardless of the announcement date. Quick example. Bond bought in Sept (3.54%) Rate change on 1 Nov to 7.1% Bond bought in Jan September bond stays at 3.54 until March at which point it rolls to 7.1% until Sept next January bond...
- Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:47 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
- Replies: 69
- Views: 22749
Re: Why isn't gold moving?
I think maybe there has to be more gloom and doom in the air before people start fleeing to safety. As long as stocks are still cranking along and staying ahead of inflation investors aren't going to worry about it that much. A major stock market correction, coupled with continuing inflation, might...