The column you’re pointing to shows the 15-year annualized return starting at the beginning of 2002 through the end of 2016. Tyler, if you're using monthly data, which I believe you are, how is this range not 14 years and 11 months? Perhaps one extra month won't affect the CAGR much, but it's not t...

Back in 2015 when Tyler was beginning to crank out his beautiful Excel charts, I took the data from peaktotrough and made my own blatant-Tyler-ripoff chart with monthly starting dates (see this thread and my chart here ). I found that there were several starting dates where the PP rebalanced annuall...

Considering reinvested dividends, according to Yahoo Finance the adjusted close for D was $7.08 on April 15, 1997 (actual close was $17.25). On December 27, 2013 the adjusted close was $56.13. That's a 7.93-fold gain over 16 years, 8 months, 12 days (16.70 years). Comes to 13.2% annualized. In case ...

My rationale would be: don't lose money! So at least tax neutral. If you began with $100,000 in each investment, now one is $110,000 and the other is $90,000 (ratio of 11:9), then you could sell an equal percentage of each to offset the capital gain. If, say, your loan amount is $20,000, then you co...

I received an email this morning heralding the "happy" news that TDA is tripling its number of commission-free ETFs. Unfortunately for us, they are no longer going to include VTI, TLT, or SHY among them. I haven't looked close enough through the list of new free ETFs to find suitable subst...

I would choose a 5-year ladder. For deep cash, you are unlikely to ever have to touch it. So I would aim for a higher yield (longer maturity) and hold each rung to maturity. But not too long that interest rate fluctuations affect the value of the bonds too much. Five years seems a good compromise to...

Interesting stuff. At least for a 25/25/25/25 portfolio, going from 25% to 35% is a 40% increase (or 25% to 15% is a 40% decrease). <pedantry>Going from 25% to 35% requires the asset to grow by about 62%. You have to remember that the whole portfolio grows along with a single asset growing. So 25 (...

That is a good question. You'd look at a price/yield curve and think hey, this is asymptotic, going to infinity as it gets near zero. https://i.imgur.com/KAR8ccO.png But I suppose not. Would be interesting to know, though. If a bond yield drop from 2% to 1% (-50%) causes a bond to rise from 100 to ...

Not to be nitpicky, but I think it would be more accurate to divide the "one-month" annualized yield by 13, not 12, since the bills have a four-week term.

Playing around on peaktotrough.com I discovered something interesting: the 10-year returns for stocks, LTTs, and gold are almost equal, at about 6.3% apiece (CAGR). That's starting on May 11, 2007, with dividends reinvested. Pretty amazing given the huge crash in stocks in 2008 and the huge rise and...

Jack, I don't understand what you mean by only rebalancing assets that are beyond their bands. In your stocks 35%/bonds 20% example, would you sell stocks down to 25% and leave the rest as cash? What if the original allocation was 35% stocks, 25% cash, 20% bonds, and 20% gold? You'd rebalance to 25/...

...I downloaded Yahoo Finance adjusted closing price data from January, 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016... I've noticed that the Yahoo "adjusted close prices" have, incorrectly, been equal to the "close prices" for quite a while. Perhaps it's just my browser. You might want to chec...

Managing around the edges has little to no effect on returns but it certainly can benefit psychologically. 1M portfolio, 30% stocks (300K). Sell 5% (15K) to cash and restore asset allocation. A 20% decline on the 5% (3K). Your timely move only resulted in a savings of 3K or .3% of your portfolio. Y...

As I establish my first portfolio in October, I ask the following: 1) What would the capital gain be on the 10 Year Treasury if we experience zero interest rates? 2) The capital gain on the 30 Year Treasury? Kevin, if you bought new Treasury bonds for $1,000 each on October 1, 2015, these are the y...

If stocks, bonds, and gold are all up, perhaps cash is at less than 25%. You might want to consider selling whatever has gone up the most to rebalance cash to 25%. That way you are not rebalancing completely, but just skimming a little off the top. Profit taking.

barrett wrote: ... if the intent is to carry the swing comedian crowd, Louis CK is probably a good pick.

That would be interesting:

Louis C.K.: 'Insane bigot' Donald Trump 'is Hitler'

So, less than two months ago, the Japanese long bond was about where the German Bund is now. The yield has plunged to .292 in less than 60 days. Can one of you bondy, mathy types run some numbers on what kind of bond returns a Japanese investor would have gotten so far this year? If you don't want ...

Uncork the champagne!  According to peaktotrough.com, the PP started on January 1 1972 with 35/15 bands and reinvested dividends reached its all-time high (nominally) yesterday, surmounting the previous peak established on February 2 last year.  Hopefully, your portfolio is at its all-time high, too...

TennPaGa, can you provide some further explanation about what your graph shows?  Five-year returns?  Daily data?  What does the current value of 12.5 represent?

Thanks for the correction. I think I should also point out that the taxable gain in a taxable account is only the proportion of a sale that is actually gain, not the whole sale. In other words (assuming I'm doing the calculation right this time), if your gold goes up from $25 to $41 and you sell $1...

Say you start with $25 in each of four investments, and one of them grows to $35; assuming the others don't change, then you will have a total of $110. Not quite: $35 out of $110 is only 32%.  Gold would have to increase to about $41 to become 35% of $116 (41 + 3*25).  Rebalancing would reset each ...

It surely must feel good to see the PP roaring back to life.  Budd, try to remember this the next time the stock market points skyward while the PP plods along at its snails pace. I checked YTD, 12, 24, and 36 month returns of the PP vs VTI on etfreplay.  These numbers are quite instructive: YTD:  ...

Update: This thought just occurred to me. Maybe it's already out there somewhere but a good idea for an article on the internet would be "Sports Superstars who went out in a blaze of glory". If Peyton Manning wins the super bowl he'll be close to the top of the list but I'm having a hard ...

Ah, it's getting clearer: you are using GEM merely as an indicator for timing your change in assets between stocks and cash. Faber's chart appears at first glance to suggest that a momentum PP is vastly superior to a vanilla PP, but on second look I don't see much difference during the 1970s or from...

MediumTex provided a similar response here: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/permanent-portfolio-discussion/ultra-low-negative-interest-rates-in-germany/msg140483/#msg140483 The message seems to be that changes in yield will lead to greater volatility in bond prices in low-interest-rate environm...