Search found 257 matches
- Fri Jul 07, 2023 3:05 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
- Replies: 31
- Views: 25465
Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
I'm in the same boat as Maddy. I bought 30-year treasuries in February 2021, yielding 1.875%. Today, each $1000 bond is worth about $640, and that $18.75 annual coupon isn't helping very much to make up for the 36% decline. Nevertheless, if I hold to maturity I'll get the $360 back over 27.5 years, ...
- Tue Jul 04, 2023 5:46 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold ETF Placement
- Replies: 9
- Views: 4437
Re: Gold ETF Placement
Not sure if it's well known around these parts, but capital gains from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) are taxed at the capital gains rate (0, 15, or 20%) if an extra form is filed with your tax return. See here . The expense ratio is a bit high at 0.41%, but the savings could be significant w...
- Fri May 05, 2023 11:33 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
- Replies: 33
- Views: 18815
Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
My notes from the Vanguard phone call. 1) Auctions are held with this frequency for the following length T-Bills: Once a week - one month, two months, three months, four months, six months Once a month - one year, two years, three year, five years, seven years, ten years Once a quarter - 20 years, ...
- Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:00 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
- Replies: 40
- Views: 41612
Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Once inflation gets below 2%, that's the time to back up the truck for LT bonds. I think this reasoning would make sense if the yield curve wasn't so inverted. I suspect that by the time inflation is below 2% the yield on the 30-year will be much closer to 2% itself. Today it's at 3.55%. At the end...
- Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:18 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2022 Returns
- Replies: 44
- Views: 27937
Re: 2022 Returns
For my 4x25 PP, still in accumulation phase, I got -12.30% nominal, with 7.11% inflation (November to November), so -19.41% real. Yuck. Numbers below from yahoo (using adjusted close prices, meaning dividends reinvested): VTI -19.52% TLT -31.23% IAU -0.63% SHY -3.88% ----------- 4x25 PP: -13.82% (-2...
- Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: What's going on with silver?
- Replies: 211
- Views: 171901
Re: What's going on with silver?
I wish I had acted on gold and silver when I made those two posts. They both signaled the top. Next time I post that I'm waiting for 100:1, slap me down!
- Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:18 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
- Replies: 40
- Views: 41612
Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.
I'm hoping that the greater-than-4% yields for the six-month to seven-year treasuries are going to give the PP a solid basis for the next few years. I'm hoping to lock in some decent yields. I don't know about the 30-year, but my gut says 4% will be about as high as it goes before the economy suffer...
- Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:00 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Breitbart logo on this website url
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1807
Re: Breitbart logo on this website url
For your edification, and mine, it's called a favicon.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:52 pm I don’t know what you call the symbol that appears next to the site name...
- Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:44 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
- Replies: 6
- Views: 3259
Re: PHYS selling at a premium
Right now PHYS is trading at a discount to NAV: -2.03%. See here at the Sprott website. Since about June 2018 it has been trading in the range from 0% to -2%, so it looks like it might be at a low.
- Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:37 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: What's going on with silver?
- Replies: 211
- Views: 171901
Re: What's going on with silver?
Gold-to-silver ratio at around 93:1 today. 94:1 if you use the numbers from yahoo (currently $1750.10/$18.58). After my previous post it hovered around this level for a couple of weeks before dropping to 87-ish. Would have been about a 6% gain. Still, I'm waiting for 100:1. If we're going to have re...
- Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:04 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: What happened to Sophie?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1749
Re: What happened to Sophie?
Glad to know you're well, Sophie. For me, you've always been one of the most thoughtful and eloquent posters, and your contributions have been missed.
- Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:42 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
- Replies: 20
- Views: 8546
Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
... Treasury Direct is now accepting certification by notary public. That would be great. I've been having the same problems as GT's wife. The last time I tried to get my identification verified (in April), my credit union, and several big-name banks where I have accounts, refused to stamp the form...
- Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: What's going on with silver?
- Replies: 211
- Views: 171901
Re: What's going on with silver?
Gold-to-silver ratio in the 90s again, first time in two years. About 92:1 right now. I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.
https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-r ... ver/3year/
https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-r ... ver/3year/
- Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:18 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
- Replies: 6
- Views: 3259
Re: PHYS selling at a premium
How are you tracking current premium/discount to NAV for PHYS? I was using that Sprott URL. And also checking the price ratio of IAU to PHYS. It's rare to see PHYS trade at a premium to NAV, but it was doing so consistently on Friday, not just a spike at closing. Because the discount has been avera...
- Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:55 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
- Replies: 6
- Views: 3259
PHYS selling at a premium
PHYS is, at this minute, trading at a premium of +0.20%. It usually trades at a discount (2020 was the last year where it meaningfully traded for several weeks at a premium), so now might be a good time to get out of it if anyone has been thinking of going to a less expensive ETF or physical. Just a...
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:07 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 61
- Views: 13218
Re: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
But that 7.12% for six months is psychologically tempting! At this time, I see little likelihood that the new interest rate will be much different than the current 7.12%, but you never know until it happens. The new I-Bond rate will be set on May 1, using the CPI-U numbers from September 2021 (274....
- Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:10 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: It's all about China
- Replies: 123
- Views: 65036
Re: It's all about China
Its easy to get people off farms and into construction/office work. Not easy to get them to code <irony> I'm not so sure. As a wise man once said , "Anyone who can go down 300 to 3000 feet in a mine sure in hell can learn how to program as well. Give me a break. Anybody who can thrown coal int...
- Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:13 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Yay PP!
- Replies: 268
- Views: 63402
Re: Yay PP!
I, for one, enjoy reading mathjak's posts even if I don't always agree with them. I've learned from him and I hope that we have a big enough tent here not to drive him away. I agree with what you concisely stated above. I, too, like reading dissenting views on this forum. None of us knows the futur...
- Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:40 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2022 PP predictions
- Replies: 44
- Views: 9716
- Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:04 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Yay PP!
- Replies: 268
- Views: 63402
Re: Yay PP!
Kitces looked into rebalancing . Assuming a 50/50 with an average of 10% a year on equities and bonds averaging 5% , over 30 years the 50/50 would become 80/20 just letting assets drift https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-rebalancing-usually-reduces-long-term-returns-but-is-good-risk-management-anyway/...
- Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:25 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
- Replies: 135
- Views: 32693
Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
I agree, Kevin, this year looks daunting. Making around 12% nominal with the PP seems like an impossible joke.
- Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
- Replies: 135
- Views: 32693
Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Smith, sorry for your loss. I've never been in your situation, but I did receive a windfall once that doubled my PP and I recall the nervousness of placing what, at the time, seemed like huge trades. I have a few thoughts. One, think of your portfolio in terms of percentages, not dollars. The PP (fo...
- Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2022 PP predictions
- Replies: 44
- Views: 9716
2022 PP predictions
Putting these predictions out there for ridicule come 2023! Stocks: down (guessing -20%) LTTs: down (guessing -20%) Gold: up (guessing +25%) Cash: up (guessing +5%) ----- PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal) ----- Rationale: Pandemic -- over or ignored Inflation -- high because of short supply S...
- Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:52 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2021 PP Returns
- Replies: 30
- Views: 6169
Re: 2021 PP Returns
My 2021 data point. I'm a traditionalist, 4x25.
Nominal return: 5.14%
Inflation: 6.81%
Real return: -1.67%
Damn that inflation!
Nominal return: 5.14%
Inflation: 6.81%
Real return: -1.67%
Damn that inflation!
- Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:04 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k
- Replies: 1
- Views: 680
Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k
I recall (but can't find it) there being some discussion here, many moons ago, about all the jumping through hoops needed to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k. In the past I have mailed a check, deposited a check at a Fidelity branch, or ACH'd money to a Fidelity checking account then called...