"I’m no expert" I can agree with that. Note the definition and the example of an "expert"! a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area. "a financial expert" · Personally when it comes to finance especially I've always p...

This question has arisen before and as luck would have it I kept a note with Tyler's response to it from a few years ago: "One additional question: Have you considered a slice of international, for diversification? I realize that past returns show it's always been a return-reducer (with the exc...

OK I was already kind of at a loss for superlatives for the Portfolio Charts site generally and Tyler's "deep dive" posts on specific asset classes and market conditions going back years now, but this new post may be his best yet: https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/03/02/how-to-survive-and-m...

I suppose I should preface this by saying I don't own any cryptocurrency.

https://www.bridgewater.com/research-an ... on-bitcoin

Here's hoping at least a few folks read the article I posted as it'd be nice to get some comments on it rather than unrelated (or at best tangential) topics. Today's stock/bond/gold market meltdown notwithstanding the article makes a pretty compelling case (from what I can tell) for needing to go ou...

This paper was posted in a thread on the current bond market situation on Bogleheads: https://www.deshaw.com/assets/articles/DESCO_Market_Insights_Bonds_As_Haven_Assets_20210114.pdf It offers the best analysis I've seen of how Treasuries performed during the spring 2020 stock market meltdown along w...

This is the best article I've seen on Bitcoin:

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/top-7 ... r-bitcoin/

Crystal-clear about what it's useful for and what it's not. And NOT a gold substitute or equivalent in the PP, IMHO, though I can totally see its speculative appeal in a VP.

As Bernstein said . Investing equal amounts of money in outcomes that are anything but equal chances of playing out is one of the flaws of the pp. deflation or depression are not the same odds as prosperity as well as with the feds tools as yellen said for fighting inflation high inflation is not t...

Going to listen the the podcast. The one thing I thing that LTT’s may be very good for is the 30x spike they will provide of we have deflationary shock. But if we turn inflationary they will be one big heavy anchor ...so it is a gamble ...actually better odds though as the fed will opt for inflatio...

Yeah 2008 is the year we all talk about and probably half the reason there’s such interest in the PP when the stock market tanks. But when you look at that year and what’s happened since you see just how little gas is left in the tank. I’m guessing the only way we see that kind of situation with LTT...

Not sure how you’re defining “oomph” but pure ITTs outperform the barbell 1978-2021 and 2000-2021 for CAGR and drawdowns.

Whatever oomph there was seems to have been used up last year, leaving a soupçon of deflation protection and a Mt. Everest of interest rate risk.

I have no idea where interest rates are going either but I've replaced the LTT's with ITT's in my GB. Over long periods of time ITT's have been a wash with the LTT/MM barbell but with less volatility. But that's looking at the historic 40 year bull market in bonds in the rear view mirror. The risk:r...

I still haven't seen anything on gold that's as good as Tyler's writeup from last year: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/metal-money-and-the-measurable-value-of-gold/#inflation Regarding just one part of it, he points out that the positive correlation is to negative real interest rates rather ...

Ray Dalio is captivating and I love listening to him probably as much as I believe he loves listening to himself. The thing is, I often find myself asking whether he is more master investor or master salesman. Considering that a qualified investor in the Bridgewater world will need to show up with ...

Interesting analysis from Ray Dalio and company: https://mailchi.mp/newsletter.bwater.com/2021globaloutlook?e=a13cfb2210 Of course this is only an excerpt from and concise summary of a much longer and more detailed missive sent to their hedge fund clients. I don't think anyone here would take what t...

Thanks for the thoughtful responses everyone! FWIW for those who do want to own LTT's using and ETF, SPTL is pure Treasuries, ~25 years duration and only .06% ER. Seems like a better choice than VGLT and arguably even TLT. Not inclined to venture into longer-duration bonds myself at the moment. Good...

Not wishing to incur the wrath of diehard PP'ers here but I'm curious to hear other's thoughts on using some or all Intermediate-Term Treasuries (e.g. VGIT with ~ 5 year duration) for the LTT part of the PP or GB. I suppose another idea would be to do the traditional barbell but perhaps reduce the L...

As a correction of some of what I said in my initial post - and a nod to Tyler's savvy in dividing the equity portion of the GB into TSM and SCV - here's a comparison of TSM and SCV over the past 20 years (one of my favorite time frames to use for backtesting since it captures both the dot.com boom/...

Not exactly a comparable situation since growth has been trouncing value for 18 years now - and Browne himself recommended growth stocks.

Not trying to beat a dead horse here but I'm curious to hear what others are doing with the equity portion of either of these portfolios. Much discussion in earlier threads of what Harry Browne meant by "growth" stocks and how to translate that to today's tech-dominated environment. I note...

More Butterflies..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsoBIJoJduo Thanks for sharing this video. I think it's quite good, but he substitutes Total Bond Market funds for the Treasuries (both short and long) which skews the results. He also isn't aware of why SCV was chosen to offset TSM and so just ...

Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.

A 40 year bull market in long term treasuries can produce all kinds of results you wouldn’t expect .. The truth is a reversal in rates can do the same and not in a good way ..i always said the pp kryptonite is rising rates as a trend and not these speed bumps we saw over 40 years Exactly! The LTT b...

Learned about this rather interesting allocation from a very knowledgeable poster (who's also a PP and Portfolio Charts fan) on Bogleheads. He didn't give this a name but I could resist a mash up of Larry (Swedroe) with his penchant for small cap and value tilts and of course the estimable Harry Bro...

IMHO the only "TIPS" worth buying at present and for the foreseeable future are iBonds - which are currently paying the same 1.68% rate as 30 year Treasuries but with an inflation investment and no taxes on them until redemption.

EE's also are worth a look if you're young enough.