Search found 271 matches

by modeljc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329518

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk,

Like thinking forward also about a Golden Butterfly approach. If you want 20% invested in Real Estate and you want to be passive can you suggest a High cap approach not helded directly?
by modeljc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329518

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I still playing on Paper. Hope both KBG & Wonk will keep posting. Even if it is Annual or Quarterly.
by modeljc
Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Time to go NAKED 25% Stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 8331

Time to go NAKED 25% Stocks?

Anybody out there that wants to make a market CALL?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... the-market
by modeljc
Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329518

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I use 50% bands as in .5 or 1.5x of whatever the allocation percentage is. So using my smallest XIV the bands would be 2.5 and 7.5 while the cash portion would be 22.5 and 67.while 16.66% would be 8.33 and 24.99. My method is as follows: Hit band...start watching When the asset appears to be leveli...
by modeljc
Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329518

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

So here's something I watch closely. In fact, besides decay closer than anything else. Does the leveraged PP pull away from a pure SPY portfolio when the market is going down. It better well or why the heck would anyone do this? Why, because these are exactly the times when we expect the leveraged ...
by modeljc
Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for original forum members
Replies: 42
Views: 30191

Re: Question for original forum members

I joined the forum in 2010 after discovering the famous thread on BH forum with lots of gems from Craig and MT. Initially I had 50% in pure PP in IRAs and taxable and another 50% in a PP-like portfolio in my 401k. Some of you might remember my whining about bad 401k with no gold, no LTTs, and a sol...
by modeljc
Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails. Would be interested in what GB per cent ...
by modeljc
Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how the compare...
by modeljc
Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about. My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, b...
by modeljc
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Given the big run-up in stocks over the last 8 years (and bonds too), most investors aren't really worrying about risk right now. Investing has fashions like everything else in human affairs. Me, I worry all the time :) so when all the assets move in the same direction as they have been every time ...
by modeljc
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Even if you add 17 Billion invested in Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) and 60 Billion in Ray Dalio Bridgewater Assoc. All Weather portfolio you still can't find many who Believe in the Permanent Portfolio. Also the Dalio All Weather is not a pure Permanent Portfolio and PRPFX is not very close either. T...
by modeljc
Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329518

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

It was not good. Real money -10% for me and IIRC 16-18% Max DD. Flat markets are awful using 3x ETFs (as advertised). The astute readers will notice how drag differs with rebalance period and market type for that year. Thanks! That was with 50% SHY! Might be a look into the future if PP get funny.
by modeljc
Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329518

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Friction Update Year 1x 3xAnn 3xQtr LevAnn LevQtr 2012 20.85 37.35 31.99 1.79 1.53 2013 14.18 27.04 19.55 1.91 1.38 2014 17.32 27.78 30.03 1.60 1.73 2015 06.81 05.5 10.46 0.81 1.54 2016 09.81 15.74 19.59 1.60 2.00 2017 03.19 5.89 6.71 1.85 2.10 Sorry...this pretty much sucks as a table, maybe one d...
by modeljc
Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

I'd be interested in what your friend did during/after the tech bust in 2000/2001 and the RE bubble in 2008? Just hang on to whatever he had? Sold? Bought? Does he have an advisor recommending things or does it himself? Cash not earning anything, long bonds scare him, gold has no return, yet he's c...
by modeljc
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85742

Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

My friend Charles (Retired) asked me why we only have about 600 registered members. For a world wide forum and a recent book he suggested we were very much on the fringe of the investment world. Charles just can't buy the idea of Cash not earning anything. Long bonds scare him to death. Also he can'...
by modeljc
Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”
Replies: 9
Views: 9768

Re: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”

I dunno. I've long since given up this kind of crunchy quantification and performance chasing. I like the GB portfolio better because it matches my emotions and predictions for the future better. If it ever gets really out of whack, I'll rebalance. If it does better than the PP, that means I was ri...
by modeljc
Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”
Replies: 9
Views: 9768

Re: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”

Pointedstick wrote:
modeljc wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:I'm pretty happy with my Golden Butterfly portfolio's performance this year. :)
Are you 100% invested in Golden Butterfly?
Not 100%; About 50%.
I sent this too fast and should have asked about your Rebalance bands. Also what do you hope to net extra after 5 years over a normal PP?
by modeljc
Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”
Replies: 9
Views: 9768

Re: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”

Pointedstick wrote:I'm pretty happy with my Golden Butterfly portfolio's performance this year. :)
Are you 100% invested in Golden Butterfly?
by modeljc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio Moving Average
Replies: 7
Views: 5672

Re: Portfolio Moving Average

How much did you make on Paper? vs, no taxes, no commisions and good fills?
by modeljc
Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golbal debt/stiffed
Replies: 5
Views: 4231

Re: Golbal debt/stiffed

Sorry it is Global debt!
by modeljc
Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golbal debt/stiffed
Replies: 5
Views: 4231

Golbal debt/stiffed

Any one believe the 152 Trillion debt is too much?

Any one think you or your friend will be stiffed?

Ray Dalio's boomshell to NY Fed!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-0 ... w-york-fed
by modeljc
Sun May 08, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anybody looked at 3 year REAL Returns!
Replies: 3
Views: 2654

Re: Anybody looked at 3 year REAL Returns!

stuper1 wrote: Agreed 100%.  And not just a 3-year focus, but a 3-year focus on real returns, as you suggested.  That's where the PP differentiates itself from a lot of portfolios.
Rarely after a book come out that the returns match the book. 
by modeljc
Sun May 08, 2016 6:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anybody looked at 3 year REAL Returns!
Replies: 3
Views: 2654

Anybody looked at 3 year REAL Returns!

As of May 8, 2016 I have REAL RETURNS: YTD +8.1% 12 months +4.5% 24 months +4.1% 36 months +3.0% Very much like 40 years of long term returns.  Just like the book suggested. Before any one would want to bail out of The Permanent Portfolio I would recommend you KEEP a three year foucus.  I think medi...
by modeljc
Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 47814

Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio

I can get much better returns for the amount of risk the relative momentum adds with other strategies. What strategies do you prefer if you don't mind me asking? Me too MG.  I hope you have a strategy or something that you believe in and have finally settle on.  I made fun of you about a year ago. ...
by modeljc
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: SGOL
Replies: 15
Views: 10353

Re: SGOL

So far the morningstar site appears to have the best current premium or discount.