Search found 91 matches

by mortalpawn
Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Does the momentum behind GLD make it the best/safest ETF??
Replies: 7
Views: 4706

Re: Does the momentum behind GLD make it the best/safest ETF??

I looked into the risks of these some time ago and finally decided to diversify by holding several ETFs instead of just one like GLD.  In fact GLD is one of the funds that made me most nervous after reading the detailed agreement. As others have pointed out, they are all "paper" gold and c...
by mortalpawn
Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the Swiss Franc Decoupling?
Replies: 5
Views: 2937

Thoughts on the Swiss Franc Decoupling?

In a shocking move, the Swiss National Bank decoupled the Franc from the Euro today (it was previously pinned at 1.20 EUR) - causing chaos in the currency markets.  The potential effects appear to be broad - impacting not only the Euro, but the Dollar, Gold, Oil, Russia, Greece, Brazil and many othe...
by mortalpawn
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:30 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 13
Views: 8612

Re: Inflation Spiral

My first argument may have been too complex to understand so I'll try a simpler one: By the law of supply and demand when you raise the price of something (aka labor) you get less of it.  Higher wages means fewer jobs - no matter how much our political leaders and Keynesian's, Krugmans, and Pikettys...
by mortalpawn
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 13
Views: 8612

Re: Inflation Spiral

Its a largely political move - to appeal to the Democratic base.  It ultimately hurts the same people that support it, along with small business owners. Only about 4.3% of workers make the minimum wage (95.7% make more) now, so it will not affect a huge number of workers or substantially drive price...
by mortalpawn
Tue Dec 02, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What form of physical gold to buy?
Replies: 18
Views: 11400

Re: What form of physical gold to buy?

We all love to take our coins out and fondle them (at least I did before the horrible boating accident ;) I would stick with the major coins - in the one troy ounce size if you can afford them (or save up to buy them):   - Eagles and Maple leafs are most widely accepted in the US (US mint Buffalos t...
by mortalpawn
Fri Nov 28, 2014 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Swiss vote on Gold
Replies: 23
Views: 11090

Re: Swiss vote on Gold

From the polls it appears unlikely to pass - largely because it would break the "Euro peg" as the Swiss Franc has been pegged to the Euro the last few years.  If the Swiss bank can't freely print currency they won't be able to maintain the peg and the Franc will rise quickly, hurting expor...
by mortalpawn
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 26658

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Nothing at all suspicious about 9,000 short contracts for gold (20x the normal volume) being dumped on the lunchtime Asian markets in a minute or two (where liquidity is thinnest from a global perspective) at the same time every other day for the last month - right?   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2...
by mortalpawn
Thu Nov 20, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 26658

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities -  this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others:   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2...
by mortalpawn
Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 26658

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

  Read "Gold wars" - gold is not like other commodities, it is certainly nothing like the stock market in terms of liquidity, and unfortunately is subject to manipulation in the futures market by major banks and even central banks.  The banks would not be subject to prosecution and settlem...
by mortalpawn
Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1775842

Re: The GOLD scream room

I'm 5% in planetary alignment futures I've gone short on "planetary alignment futures" and long on "stupidity" and "government growth" - I'm thinking both of those are going to pay off. Seriously - the PP seems to be doing just fine - I can even live with the slight dr...
by mortalpawn
Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 26658

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Why are you repeating these conspiracy theories? Sorry - did not mean to muddy up the discussion with the presentation of facts.  UBS is just one of many - but today we hear from Swiss Government regulators: Switzerland's financial watchdog said on Wednesday it had found a "clear attempt"...
by mortalpawn
Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 26658

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

For those of you who believe gold market manipulation does not exist - UBS (formerly Swiss bank) agreed to settle allegations over its gold trading today: UBS is to settle allegations of misconduct at its precious metals trading business alongside a planned agreement between UK and US authorities an...
by mortalpawn
Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1775842

Re: The GOLD scream room

Stocks and bonds will always go up, and gold will always go down...until they don't!
by mortalpawn
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETF in a Roth IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 4659

Re: Gold ETF in a Roth IRA?

I don't see anything wrong with it, and I have some IRA money in gold ETFs.  As Barrett pointed out there may be a tax advantage (one way or the other) to holding it in a taxable account, but that depends heavily on your current tax rate, interest rates, whether gold rises significantly before retir...
by mortalpawn
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP now beating SP500 YTD
Replies: 61
Views: 29576

Re: PP now beating SP500 YTD

I too am having fun watching the muppets panic today.  It almost makes up for the dismal performance we had last year.  1500 points lost on the Dow in less than a week, and the PP is up.

Can't wait until the 3pm hour when the margin calls come due - need to make some popcorn to watch this part...
by mortalpawn
Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:23 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: How is Gold Priced?
Replies: 10
Views: 5099

Re: How is Gold Priced?

If we cannot depend on gold as an inflation hedge, then what is the alternative? Gold should rise when the future of the worlds reserve currency is of concern. This generally occurs in a time of high inflation, right? I don't know what a better inflation hedge would be.  One interesting exercise I ...
by mortalpawn
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: How is Gold Priced?
Replies: 10
Views: 5099

Re: How is Gold Priced?

This is just my opinion (which is worth what you paid for it), but I believe there are a few key points with gold that remain unchanged over the last few thousand years:   - Gold is a good store of value - it may not grow much but it does maintains its value over time   - Gold is not well correlated...
by mortalpawn
Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: How is Gold Priced?
Replies: 10
Views: 5099

Re: How is Gold Priced?

The short answer is that the "spot price" is set in the futures market.  Basically you take the "future" price for gold and discount it by the "risk free" rate (which happens to be near zero at the moment) to come up with today's price.  Since gold is traded around the ...
by mortalpawn
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: USD Strength and the PP
Replies: 25
Views: 14502

Re: USD Strength and the PP

Dollar started dumping rapidly this afternoon after the Fed said it was "worried" about a strong dollar.  They can't allow deflation (a strong dollar) to continue as it would hurt major debtors like the US government and many debt ridden consumers, not to mention it could pop the bond and ...
by mortalpawn
Wed Oct 01, 2014 3:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP or Buy a new House
Replies: 49
Views: 23527

Re: PP or Buy a new House

I would personally (lacking more information) be tempted to take out a mortgage for the following reasons:   - A 30 year mortgage here in the US runs 4.3% (roughly), while the PP average return is higher   - Interest rates are near historic lows, and likely to rise, so that makes your relatively che...
by mortalpawn
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:13 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do central banks purchase Gold?
Replies: 5
Views: 2809

Re: Why do central banks purchase Gold?

So they can manipulate the price of gold of course!

Just kidding...sort of...
by mortalpawn
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:57 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver?
Replies: 11
Views: 6415

Silver?

I know Silver is not part of the PP plan, but with the shiny stuff hitting a four year low, I'm wondering if adding a few coins to the safety deposit box might be a good idea?

Thoughts?
by mortalpawn
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let's Take A Guess
Replies: 8
Views: 4308

Re: Let's Take A Guess

I'm of the opinion that if the bond/stock bubble actually pops, we could see deflation in all assets (including gold) in the short term as the big investors move to cover their bets.  This would only happen if the correction was large enough to force a cascade of margin calls and covering of "d...
by mortalpawn
Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in today's world
Replies: 39
Views: 17451

Re: PP in today's world

Yes - the PP is the worst possible portfolio, except for all the rest... I think the stock and bond markets are overdue for an adjustment, but I've felt that way for the last two years. I think one problem is that anyone who seriously might invest in a portfolio with 25% gold and 25% cash is not an ...
by mortalpawn
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let me guess, everything's great!
Replies: 49
Views: 23580

Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

I think you are all way too skittish.  My PP is up about 7% this year, versus about 2.5% for the DOW and just over 7% for the S&P 500.  The PP has a fraction of the volatility of the other two as well.  I think that is very respectable. Yes, the PP went down a bit in the last few weeks, but a 2%...