Search found 430 matches

by seajay
Tue Jul 04, 2023 2:30 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1160
Views: 827645

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

A fairly bleak picture that you present! He's a bully, pushing the boundaries to see just how much he can get away with. Sanctions aren't hurting, if anything have been beneficial, promoted a even faster transition away from US controlled SETS over to alternatives, thereby considerably reducing the...
by seajay
Tue Jul 04, 2023 1:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Blockchain Gold
Replies: 5
Views: 2152

Re: Blockchain Gold

Duplicate thread, not sure if they can be merged: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=11501&p=212166&hilit=goldpass#p212166 I’ve only bought gold ETFs so it is difficult for me to evaluate this. Maybe it would be interesting to the people buying physical? https://www.paxos...
by seajay
Mon Jul 03, 2023 3:26 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1160
Views: 827645

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Putin wasn't permitted to execute his prison population, so got Wagner (Russian state sponsored terrorists/mercenaries) to do that for him, recruited by Wagner as bullet fodder for the Ukrainians to execute them. Putin needed to contain Wagner however, that has massive amounts of revenues from acros...
by seajay
Mon Jul 03, 2023 3:04 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame
Replies: 32
Views: 13615

Re: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame

MG, Looking at your posted numbers, silver didn't do half bad. What am I missing? Thanks and remember this IS heresy! Silver doesn't act like gold when it needs to act like gold because it is too much of an industrial metal now; same with platinum and palladium (they are both interexchangeable for ...
by seajay
Fri Jun 09, 2023 10:41 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36783

Re: When will indexing blow up?

Since 1960, compared to total stock market (total returns) https://i.postimg.cc/9F5gT1mb/lexcx.png Recently holding around 22 stocks, of which one is BRK, some months back was holding 20 stocks, so even though its 'static' it does still evolve/change. Largest recent holding is Union Pacific, at arou...
by seajay
Fri Jun 09, 2023 10:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Assorted Gold-related News
Replies: 2
Views: 1383

Re: Assorted Gold-related News

Financial Times on a Porsche SE scandal: Siegfried Wolf is one of two indicted “entre­pren­eurs”, accord­ing to sev­eral people famil­iar with the situ­ation. The case involves alleg­a­tions of “hid­den assets” amount­ing to about €6.8mn and funds exchanged into gold and kept in Switzer­land, Aus­t...
by seajay
Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: London Coin Fair (3rd June)
Replies: 0
Views: 12709

London Coin Fair (3rd June)

(Late) reminder https://www.coinfairs.co.uk/london-coin-fair/ 9:30 - 4pm. But a bad day, FA Cup day (3pm kick off at Wembley) and also the trains are on strike (tube/subway and busses are running as normal). A number of the line-up travel distance to be at the event, so I expect with the rail strike...
by seajay
Thu May 25, 2023 12:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3317

Re: Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Everyone should be familiar with the phrase in the subject line. My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? Assume that each asset, price only value, might broadly offset inflation, 0% real, but endure considerable volatility along th...
by seajay
Thu May 25, 2023 11:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36783

Re: When will indexing blow up?

LEXCX holds a sizeable proportion in Union Pacific, and some Berkshire Hathaway stock. Initial equal weight not rebalanced will tend to end up like that, more average weighting in the stock(s) that did well. Rebalancing has a tendency to reduce the concentration risk, whilst still tending to achieve...
by seajay
Sat May 20, 2023 8:02 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36783

Re: When will indexing blow up?

The cap weighted index reflect yesterdays best/worst. Buy the index and you weight more into yesterdays winners. Bogle suggested the ultimate being to buy initially in equal weights and hold that forever, let it find its own cap weighting. but that wasn't something that Vanguard could market. John M...
by seajay
Sat May 20, 2023 2:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Buy gold now?
Replies: 13
Views: 10496

Re: Buy gold now?

Doesn’t shine when it should — totally agree, Barrett. Does gold have an obligation to shine when people want/expect it to? It shines when it does. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And a tendency to do so when most needed Annualized rolling 36 month total returns, lowest lows over the last 20 years Feb 28th 2009 Stock -1...
by seajay
Fri May 12, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Chinese dumping dollars
Replies: 1
Views: 474

Chinese dumping dollars

Recently heard from several sources that Chinese citizens are frantically trying to get rid of any physical US dollars they own. Some form of commonly perceived issue must be spreading through their grape vines. Maybe part of a TARA (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) push? I know Biden doesn't go d...
by seajay
Fri May 12, 2023 2:42 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 4555

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

Here are some portfoliovisualizer charts. It seems like these two classes are decently correlated. It shows a correlation of .89. Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.43.34 PM.png And...Log scale turned off Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.49.00 PM.png 10.33 and 13.4 stdev's from your image. 10.33 / 13.4 = 0.77,...
by seajay
Wed May 10, 2023 7:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 4555

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

Interested in hearing opinions about SCV vs TSM investing for my children. Seems like over the long term SCV beats TSM by a long way. Wondering if there are any gotcha's with SCV . I'm planning on starting with one automated investment to keep things simple. Two come immediately to mind (although t...
by seajay
Tue May 09, 2023 2:30 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 4555

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

viewtopic.php?p=249810#p249810

A PP variant of 33/17/25/25 SCV/gold/cash/LTT has worked well/better than a classic PP since 1934
by seajay
Tue May 09, 2023 2:20 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Monetary Metals
Replies: 3
Views: 2665

Re: Monetary Metals

I prefer to lease to myself. Shift some gold over to the stock side, and instead of 50/50 TSM/gold holding 67/33 SCV/gold. Comparable to the addition of a 5% gold dividend/interest benefit. PP of 33/17/25/25 SCV/gold/cash/LTT Better IMO than selling gold covered calls (that earns interest (time valu...
by seajay
Sat May 06, 2023 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60047

Re: I'M OUT!

I would propose that it is the reserve status of the dollar that has allowed the U.S. to maintain its dominance in the international order. The reserve status of the dollar is also the reason why the U.S. has enjoyed its extraordinarily profligate standard of living and the privilege of being able ...
by seajay
Sat May 06, 2023 6:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
Replies: 32
Views: 7832

Re: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold

From 1-1-1794 to 12-31-1933 one-third (1/3rd) of the portfolio was in "hard cash" by which you mean either physical paper dollars or physical gold or silver coins, right? In other words, not cash or gold held as deposits, as bonds, or as Treasury bills (the latter of which didn't really exist anywa...
by seajay
Fri May 05, 2023 5:25 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
Replies: 32
Views: 7832

Re: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold

The modern interpretation of the asset allocation that the Talmud advocated millennia ago has a alternative and perhaps more correct interpretation of one third in-hand, one third buried in the ground, one third in commerce. The context within which that was recorded was in regard to safety/security...
by seajay
Mon May 01, 2023 8:02 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Good piece on cash by Cullen Roche
Replies: 11
Views: 5729

Re: Good piece on cash by Cullen Roche

We default through inflation and did so in 2020 and/or taxation. Really inflation is just another form of taxation. When one can print/spend money that devalues all other notes in circulation, is as though holders of all the other notes paid a bit of tax on those notes (micro-taxation, that under l...
by seajay
Mon May 01, 2023 7:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?
Replies: 2
Views: 713

Re: What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?

I tend to use real input data, so no need to make estimations of inflation :) cash/bonds/gold 1i ... inclined to broadly offset inflation (i) stocks 2i, share prices that broadly rise with inflation, along with paying dividends on top and where those dividends might broadly compare to inflation. PP ...
by seajay
Sun Apr 30, 2023 12:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Scared to Take the PP Jump Because of Gold
Replies: 48
Views: 27232

Re: Scared to Take the PP Jump Because of Gold

Mom, I have been a PM investor since 2002.  Most of my savings is in PMs.  For most of that time I kept it in coins in my own safekeeping (but not at my home).  I have re-evaluated that now.  Sadly, the vast majority of people no longer have any familiarity or understanding of PMs.  My concern is t...
by seajay
Thu Apr 27, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: iShares GOVT as bond holding
Replies: 7
Views: 1328

Re: iShares GOVT as bond holding

PV data for 37.5/37.5/25 TSM/T-Bill/Gold compared to the PP i.e. shift bond risk over to the stock side (split LTT 50/50 between TSM/T-Bills), pre 2022 did have the PP as 'better' in the sense of lower/better worst year, but with the addition of 2022 data that difference has aligned https://i.posti...
by seajay
Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold goes up
Replies: 5
Views: 1464

Re: Gold goes up

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:34 am
It's my favourite asset. O0
:)

Some do sleep better when they hold some gold

Image

:)
by seajay
Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:15 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Best place for cash
Replies: 7
Views: 3093

Re: Best place for cash

Asset allocation of thirds each SCV/Gold/T-Bills. Swap the 'bond' (T-Bills) 'risk' over to the stock side, replace with 33/67 SCV/hard $ bills. 44.4 SCV/33.3 Gold/22.2 hard US$ bills compared to thirds each SCV/Gold/T-Bills (nominal) ... https://i.postimg.cc/Y2nmB16Q/a.png and other than a bit more ...