vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:54 pm Anyone able to comment on the validity of what is in this table?

Its just suggestive rather than actual. More so for the bottom right. And all very subjective. Btc use 32 mixed character passwords/keys and some states are indicating 7 minute quantum processing power time to crack such.

This is mis-information all BTC transactions are visible to anyone on the blockchain. I make this point every time somebody extols the privacy benefits of Bitcoin. Literally all your transactions are recorded permanently, publicly, and for all time. That's the opposite of "privacy" in eve...

I've noticed in the past that even adjusting to different start months for yearly data can throw out quite dissimilar worst case years outcomes. Whether the yearly granularity aligns with or avoids a volatility spike (volatility tends to cluster so a negative spike at one point tends to have a adjac...

Historically it helped to include some gold in a otherwise stock/bond blend. The difference between 50/50 stock/bond and 40/60 is broadly just noise, so adding in some gold might have 40/40/20 stock/bond/gold. For 40/60 adding in more volatile stock holdings (SCV/bonds) might further narrow the diff...

Same might be said for stocks. 100% S&P500 for instance still has a element of single stock index risk, such as perhaps being excessively tilted into a single sector (techs pre dot com bubble bursting, banks pre 2008/9 financial crisis). The Golden Butterfly in part addresses that for the stock ...

It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead. The same applies to the pp …when 3 or all 4 asset classes fall it is like having a very high equity level as far as down is down. There is no yin vs Yang going on. My models are no different….nothing is standing up But a less unco...

No. It averages into the asset you opine has the lowest-prospect/seems-high. Gold in 1980 (Dow/Gold ratio was down at 1.0 levels), LTT's as of recent. In the example that started with 0% gold in 1980, so thirds each stock/STT/LTT, along with 25% virtual (pretend) gold - so a actual conventional PP b...

Many recently dislike long dated treasuries, due to low yields. rising inflation and interest rate risk. The same however might have been said about gold in the early 1980's when the Dow/Gold ratio was down at near 1.0 levels. Yet that subsequently provided a means to accumulate/cost-average gold. B...

We dont necessarily want everyone hoarding a deflationary currency under the bed. People risking their funds on companies is good for growth/innovation And the taxman, and brokers, market markers, fund managers ...etc. Print/spend money and that devalues all other notes in circulation, is a form of...

Over the last couple of years this forum has seen lots of discussions about the current environment of historically low rates, unprecedented money printing and growing inflation and how it affects their attitude towards long-term Treasury bonds as part of PP. Some people stay the course and keep bu...

Has anyone gotten this month's executive member gift basket? Mine usually arrives Tuesday or Wednesday on the first week of the month. It's late a few weeks, probably just COVID-related supply chain delays? Mine arrived!!! https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/download/file.php?id=2234 Somethin...

The PP is dead. The hope for the pp is that rising rates and covid kill growth and knock us towards recession stalling the rise Certainly plausible . But the only question is how much the pp will need to work its way back ..almost every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve Whi...

I'm seeing 1.73x average leveraged PP, having provided 2x the reward since 1963 ... Dropping PP cash to invest in the other three assets = 1.33x leverage Dropping the asset at the start of each decade that has the lowest prospect to provide a 100%, 200% type reward, leaves just two assets, so 2x lev...

The bitcoin algorithm is such that there is a miners squeeze over time, fewer (more powerful) miners. Attack vectors include squeezing out other miners, such that when there are relatively few one might trip out the others to then have authority over the reconciliation, along with massive rewards fo...

Start of 1972, Dow/Gold ratio 20, 20 year T yields 6%, S&P500 PE 18 Start of 1980 Dow/Gold 1.84, 20 year T 10.5%, PE 7.4 Gold from the start of 1972, held through to end of 1979 and after large gains rotated into LTT high yields and holding those since ... would have gained more than 100% TSM an...

Stocks up +15%, banks doing well
Gold up +10%, as 'better value' elsewhere sees US$ down
LTT's down -5%
Cash +4%
PP +6%, matching inflation

I want to emphasize again to my fellow PPers on the forum that it's probably just nerves. Because of the windfall coming from my dad's estate, I made a sudden jump from 5 figure net worth to 7 figure net worth. Nonetheless, this is an allocation I was playing with in excel this morning. The duratio...

I noted in the other thread that I've recently received a windfall after my father's death. Something I must admit: I'm having a hard time committing 6 and 7 figure sums to the PP. It was one thing when all I was managing was 5 figures. In that case I'd be putting modest amounts of money in precari...

Would Harry Browne have invested in LTT's at all at today's rates (let alone betting 25% of the portfolio on them)? Of significant bearing is having one asset in 10 or 15 years time that has performed relatively well, maybe having provided a 200% type gain. Predicting which that might be, stocks, g...

I noted in the other thread that I've recently received a windfall after my father's death. Something I must admit: I'm having a hard time committing 6 and 7 figure sums to the PP. It was one thing when all I was managing was 5 figures. In that case I'd be putting modest amounts of money in precari...

A T-Bill and 20 year T barbell might be expected to broadly compare to a central 10 year bullet (buy a 10.5 year, sell when down to 9.5 years remaining and buy another 10.5 year). As might a 10 year ladder compare ... holding 1, 2, 3, ... 10 year T's and after a year when one matures roll the procee...

Held to maturity and they're the same

https://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/yieldcalc.html

Personally I would never mix the home I lived in with any investing at all ….until the day comes that home is actually converted to cash it is strictly an expense ….especially with a stay at home spouse if long term care is needed for you which can leave her impoverished I believe more often its a ...

Nice! For various reasons home ownership is similar to a stock/gold blend, in part a housing market backed by significant amounts of debt (mortgages) will tend to be uplifted by the likes of negative real yields i.e. exhibit some element of gold like qualities (gold can perform well when real yield...

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:01 pm

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:46 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:40 pmit’s more about the long run through steady gains and low volatility. In the long run it can do very well.

Should broadly be compared to cash deposits IMO.

How about to cash deposits, to pure TIPS, to an all treasury portfolio with varied durations, and to the Golden Butterfly?

PV