Good post on Tipswatch about how to take advantage of the best short-term Treasury rates since 2007. Still losing ~5% to inflation but considering what's happening to every other asset class they may well be the least worse investment of 2022. https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/21/short-term-treasurys-ev...

I appreciate your insightful comments joypog! I do want to point out though that the main reason TIPS didn't perform as well as LTT's during the 2008 market crash was Lehman Brothers. This post from Adam and Movement Capital tells the sordid story: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4278351-largest-ar...

I think the better PV tool for thinking about TIPS on is the asset correlation tool (this link is goes back to 2000 so it covers two recessions). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSMX+VIPSX+CASHX+VUSTX&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=60 In a ris...

[ Completely agree on the backtests. I just ran the numbers for what was available on portfoliovisualizer, and thought there were interesting results in how close the overall final values were, but also that the TIPS didn't provide the same diversification benefit as nominals did, at least for the ...

Definitely interesting points, and something for all of us to consider. But I just continue to have a hard time digesting the fact that the market isn't accurately pricing in all known possibilities and delivering up prices that provide us with a '50/50' situation as far as which will perform bette...

Excellent new post from David Enna at Tipswatch: https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/18/this-weeks-10-year-tips-reopening-auction-is-worth-a-serious-look/ Enna is always wisely moderate in his claims and recommendations but reading between the lines here there really aren't any meaningful advantages to no...

If it's any consolation:

https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios

Hi, I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but I've found an interesting synthesis of the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly. I love the simplicity of the PP, but I'm not a fan of LTTs even though I know the arguments in their favor (liability matching, especially as TIPS, and bond conv...

Hi, I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but I've found an interesting synthesis of the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly. I love the simplicity of the PP, but I'm not a fan of LTTs even though I know the arguments in their favor (liability matching, especially as TIPS, and bond conv...

Interesting idea seajay. Perhaps also worthy of considering might be to load up on 10 year TIPS in lieu of part or all of the regular bonds. .63% + the inflation adjustment makes them considerably more attractive than iBonds (not least because of the lack of purchase limits) and quite possibly bette...

Good article confirming Tyler’s view that cash is greatly under appreciated as an inflation hedge. :

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1 ... ource=link

Clyatt’s book is actually called “Work Less, Live More” and he continues to maintain an eponymous website: http://www.workless-livemore.com/ Tyler at Portfolio Charts has a nice post about Bob on his site and also includes his Sandwich Portfolio. Bob’s a pioneer in the ER world and his book, though ...

Interesting article from a newsletter for financial advisors I follow: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/06/10/how-i-protect-against-the-coming-market-crash?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP+Newsletter+2022-06-14+5897&bt_ee=UzxCBJmJf9k5VS7MqJVxSEHH5VGa...

If you had to sell a huge chunk of your portfolio in 08-09, would you have been better off with LTTs Kbg’s new post in response to this is excellent. I also suggest reading the Morningstar article I posted the link to in my “Bills, Bonds & Cash” post in this forum. LTT’s did slightly better tha...

People should never focus on assets in a portfolio...they should focus on the portfolio...so let's do this which explains why it doesn't make much difference. Duration (making numbers up) LTTs 20 ITTs 10 Cash 0 25/25 = 50/50 for cash & bonds...20+0/2 = 10...voila...ITTs Ideal duration for ITT’s...

Here's a good post by one of Morningstar's veteran writers about the performance of T Bills, ITT's and LTT's during all kinds of markets, with a particular focus on returns during market crises. As you'll see, LTT's have by no means always been the best choice during such crises. The historical &quo...

Is this something that needs to be applied to the "Permanent Portfolio"? It would have saved a lot of grief this year over long term treasuries. I found this other post on bogleheads https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46704 The post mentioned Larry' Swedroe's 2006 book: The ...

Good article in the WaPo today that places blame for the current inflation mess where it belongs, IMHO:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... on-easing/

These are good points. I know I'm not alone in having discovered the PP midway through the 2008 market crisis, I think through the epic Bogleheads thread started and largely moderated by Craig Rowland and J.K. Larson. At the time I saw my complex, slice-and-dice, global, small-cap and value tilted ...

Meanwhile TLT is down 21.28% YTD, cash is losing ~8% to inflation, VTI is down 16.53% and GLD with its negative 1.27% return isn't exactly looking like it's gonna come to the rescue. Can you imagine what'll happen with the PP if Fama's suggestion that 10% short-term Treasury rates might be needed t...

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat May 14, 2022 6:51 pm

Craig Rowland and J.K. Larson

Just a tiny correction: I think it’s J.M. Lawson

Thanks very much dualstow!

I owe he and Craig a lot and ought to at least be able to spell their names correctly.

Keep in mind that here are 2 different kinds of people that have invested in a 25/25/25/25 allocation. One kind found out about the PHILOSOPHY of the PP. The other kind naturally gravitated towards the asset allocation on their own due to market conditions, risk/reward profile, and personal financi...

The scenario playing out now is one that I envisioned and was one of the reasons why I chose the PP in the first place. What is playing out now is high inflation, rising interest rates, with a potentially weakening economy. This was the exact scenario that I thought gold was supposed to bail us out...

I'm with ahhrunforthehills on this. Despite the "permanent" part, the PP (brilliant as Browne was) both reflected the times it was created in and continued to evolve and change even during his lifetime. I'm among those who think it's highly likely he'd have had little if any interest in LT...