The whole concept of the HBPP is antithetical to this.
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- Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Spreadsheets to Track PP
- Replies: 49
- Views: 144293
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2022 Returns
- Replies: 44
- Views: 28043
Re: 2022 Returns
SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:37 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
- Replies: 37
- Views: 69848
Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
In addition to asset diversification, the PP includes individual assets volatility diversification. Blending high and low volatility assets is part of the PP's engine design. Swapping to slick from regular tires may very well win one sunny day race, but prove to be critical in another rainy day rac...
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:27 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is Charles Smith Charles Hugh Smith
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1394
Re: Is Charles Smith Charles Hugh Smith
<t>It would be interesting to know because if he is, then, I would be interested in his view of the HBPP nowadays, I saw Doug Casey recently and he didn't even know the asset classes, or the allocations of the PP. He was saying some of the original PP asset classes like RE & Silver. He said that...
- Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is Charles Smith Charles Hugh Smith
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1394
Is Charles Smith Charles Hugh Smith
I was wondering if the Charles Hugh Smith who writes the Blog "Of Two Minds" is the Charles Smith who worked with Harry Browne & Terry Coxen in the 80's and 90's.
- Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:10 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
- Replies: 16
- Views: 6674
Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Or, just weight energy and whatever else in a VP. That's my strategy.
My theory is, if you're going to run a HBPP, then run it as close to the OG as you possibly can, given the newer Capital Controls with banking and possible limitations with your retirement accounts and so on.
My theory is, if you're going to run a HBPP, then run it as close to the OG as you possibly can, given the newer Capital Controls with banking and possible limitations with your retirement accounts and so on.
- Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:56 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 4840
Re: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
It's a self employed 401k, so I can buy anything you normally could with a Fidelity account. I also have an inherited IRA that I must withdraw within 10 years. That's awesome! You can also consider gold ETFs, I personally use SGOL as it has probably the lowest ER and the gold is based in Switzerlan...
- Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Remember this website
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1473
Re: Remember this website
Muchas Gracias Amigo.
- Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 41876
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
No Portfolio is perfect, but for me, having a disciplined mechanistic investment strategy for my Core Retirement Funds that is automatic (15/35) bands works better than most other portfolio strategies. I'm a big gambler otherwise. Looks like I just lost my ass by owning Russian Equities, but my HBPP...
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 7854
Re: How much can you not afford to lose?
I used to live in the ghetto and had a similar experience. I represented myself (no prior legal training). The system said pay a little money and basically get a slap on the wrist. I said “What if I don’t pay?”. They said “we’ll toss you in jail”. I said “what kind of food do you serve and can I br...
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:50 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 41876
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Jason, Many of us feel your pain. Back testing has its limitations but you really should run some different portfolios through portfoliovisualizer.com to get an idea of what different asset allocations have and have not done in the past. Maybe try comparing the PP to a 60/40 allocation. Because you...
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:44 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 41876
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 173900
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Although most people on the forum now tend to dismiss Budd, either I missed or there never was a great response to his opinion. If we are actually in a multi-year trend of slowly rising interest rates, what will keep the PP or any Risk Parity portfolio from having the losses we have seen this year ...
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:22 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Safe deposit boxes: Revisited
- Replies: 29
- Views: 10301
Re: Safe deposit boxes: Revisited
What is currently the best SDB Insurance?
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:21 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1777940
Re: The GOLD scream room
I can see two things that are negatively impacting the GOLD Price: Bitcoin & the USD. A lot of Folks think that Bitcoin is Digital Gold (NOT) and the strong dollar is a well known historical headwind for the 'Barbarous Relic'.
- Fri Sep 09, 2022 5:46 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
- Replies: 32
- Views: 9492
Re: Gold ETFs old and new
I bought PHYS years ago and dislike it but I don't want to pay taxes to switch out of it. I guess I'm stuck. PHYS is a Trust & therefore isn't taxed at the Collectibles rate: it is taxed like any other ETF. This is only true if you filed the proper paperwork with the IRS in the first year that ...
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:29 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
- Replies: 135
- Views: 32734
Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
To be honest I am not really interested in past articles or charts . I am no longer a fan of driving and looking at what was . I am interested in where we have been heading and what my best guess of the future looks like and it looks like this inflation will be not so transitory and it will stubbor...
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:24 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
- Replies: 135
- Views: 32734
Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Charts. I love charts. Here is one from ray dalio’s new book. It really speaks for itself. Hard money portfolios. Hell yeah. 3F358F6D-A1A3-4A89-9CEA-79BC7FBA9C1D.jpeg First all FUCK Ray Dalio! Ray is, and has, been talking up China for years now. Why, because Chine is about 65% of his Fund. Secondl...
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:14 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
- Replies: 135
- Views: 32734
Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Just another point to add :) On listening to HB's radio show yesterday, he advised that he wanted the most volatile assets in the four asset classes. So..... 1/ Did SCV ETF's exist back in 2004? 2/ Substituting SCV for the TSM provides a return improvement and 3/ 40% SCV in the Golden Butterfly act...
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:45 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 61
- Views: 13233
Re: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
I-Bonds have no place in a HBPP. They really aren't suitable for a VP either. Something needs to have an upside potential of at least 5X to satisfy HB criteria for a good risk/reward speculation in a VP. YMMV.
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:41 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Very good Cullen Roche post on the current bond situation
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1299
Re: Very good Cullen Roche post on the current bond situation
If one wants to hold a PP or PP variant, then they have to believe in the basic philosophy behind holding such a portfolio. Holding Bonds that aren't Sovereign & aren't Long Duration is antithetical to the basic philosophy. Most Folks aren't suited to holding a PP or variant thereof IMHO. Most &...
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:32 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Math for LTT purchase.
- Replies: 14
- Views: 3075
Re: Math for LTT purchase.
So, HB says when buying similar duration bonds on the secondary market that you should counter-intuitively buy the bond with the lower coupon because it's more volatile & you will get the difference back in Capital Gains. Additionally, the Bond, if held in a taxable acct., will cause a lessor t...
- Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:47 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Blockchain Gold
- Replies: 5
- Views: 2314
Re: Blockchain Gold
One of the main points of GOLD ownership is no counter party risk. I feel stupid enough holding regular paper gold ETF's.
- Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:44 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
- Replies: 32
- Views: 9492
- Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:39 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 3171
Re: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?
The FED does NOT want the average Joe or Jane to figure out that there is in fact a relationship between the USD and Gold. They want John Q to believe that Gold is a barbarous relic, or some sort of laughable pet rock. I believe this is one reason that they have stood by and done nothing with this C...