But as we discussed the standardized worst case scenarios for stress testing the proverbial 4% swr are all pre 1970.....nothing after 1966 was as bad For the traditional stock/bond blends where those specific worst-case start years apply, the difference between a SWR measured since 1970 and 1870 is...

Does everyone here think these SWRs still hold true in the current climate? ... The part I struggle with is whether it's still valid to model 3-4% return, or SWR/PWR, with rates so low, assets seeming so bubbly, etc. Withdrawal rates are based on worst case scenarios, so they're already way more ba...

Bumping this gem of an old thread about reaching various financial milestones to financial freedom. I was updating my net worth spreadsheet recently and noticed that my net worth (including home equity) is now about 25x my average annual expenses. I can't retire yet under the 4% rule for various re...

Could either Vanguard or Fidelity be questioned as to whether they might lack the requisite financial liquidity? IMO, those are your two best bets. BTW, two interesting things I learned this week are 1) what payment for order flow is, and 2) that neither Vanguard nor Fidelity accept it. I like how ...

I’ll be blunt, if you are with a broker that didn’t put restrictions on GME my strong advice is to move your money somewhere else as quickly as you can. I disagree. Even if one assumes there were no ulterior motives involved, brokerages like Robinhood put restrictions on GME because they lacked the...

With all the increased interest in GME, I figured it was time to write up something bigger than a message board post. Here are a few thoughts, including a large dash of Harry Browne that you guys and gals might appreciate.

How to Play the Game and Live to Tell the Tale

Politicians on the right and left (AOC, Ted Cruz, etc.) are agreeing and retweeting each other that Robinhood shutting down GME trading was wrong. At least one class-action suit has been filed already. We may have just lucked into the unifying rallying cry we all needed after the election. https://...

As far as I'm concerned, since the WSB autists' are not actually an organization, their communications are open to the public, and they're not just painting the tape, I think it'd be hard to demonstrate a case of securities fraud or manipulation. Where it starts to get complicated is if the same hi...

I too am trying to figure this out. Here's a good explanation: https://slate.com/technology/2021/01/gamestop-reddit-wallstreetbets-gme.html Basically, social media is now big enough that a bunch of individual investors figured out that they can pool enough money to execute the same type of short sq...

Thanks Tyler. Interesting I looked up GSG. It seems like the ETF is has move into a majority T-Bills. Maybe they are waiting for a pullback to reinvest. https://www.etf.com/GSG#overview https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239757/ishares-sp-gsci-commodityindexed-trust-fund I believe that's actually ...

I cant find the page that shows the underlying specific funds that Tyler uses for his charts (I used to know where it was!) But anyway specifically I am looking for the commodities ETF Tyler is using in his portfolio modeling. And...If anyone here has a good suggestion for a commodities ETF would b...

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:56 am Curious if Tyler would run some models on his charts? Thank you!

As fascinating as Bitcoin is, there just isn't enough historical data to make it worthwhile for backtesting, IMO. But it'll be interesting to watch how it grows over time.

I think it was the potential buyers suffered from paralysis in the case of the 24 choices but could much more easily make the choice among six. Yep. And on top of that, the nagging feeling that you'll make the wrong decision only makes you unhappy with the purchase even if the product is great. The...

I just don't understand how I'm supposed to have any sympathy for these two. First off, their income doubled during pandemic. Secondly, how on earth do two people supposedly strapped for cash spend over 1500 a month on food? Are they eating steak and lobster every meal? The spending on food is just...

Maybe I missed them, but I haven't noticed my big-3 on any lists yet:

The Matrix
Die Hard
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade


Best Bond movies (one for each real Bond -- sorry, Lazenby):

Goldfinger
The Man With The Golden Gun
License to Kill
Goldeneye
Casino Royale

The first is that what if Healthcare.gov refuses to believe I will only make $13K next year and tries to base my policy price on this year's income or 2019's income? If that's the case then I will get either almost no premium subsidy (if based on 2019 income) or only enough premium subsidy to reduc...

If I currently have COBRA coverage lasting until late April and I go ahead and apply for subsidized ACA coverage and am accepted for coverage: 1. What will happen when I file my 2021 taxes in early 2022? Will the IRS get a copy of the 1095-C from my employer and/or will my employer even send me a 1...

Well done, Budd. You should be very proud.

Solid portfolio, BTW. It's nice to see young investors appreciate the value of commodities.

If you think stocks are exciting today, take a look at small cap value.

The Permanent Portfolio has consistently produced (with no sign of fading) a real return of 4-5% a year over every 20-year period since 1970. I'll take that over the 5% nominal.

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:46 pm You are speculating that Bretton Woods was not a massive contributing factor in the backtest data.

Love your thought process and contribution, but that part is not speculation.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/ ... d/#returns

Just want to say I value your contributions, KBG.

Take a break, be happy, and check back in after the election. Politics wears me out, too, and hopefully things will calm down by then.

I think Vinny is right...he's lost support since 2016 and hasn't gained any to speak of. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that math doesn't add up to a win. Elections are not a zero-sum game. It may be true that Trump lost some support since 2016. Judging from overall enthusiasm, it can also be true th...

As an aside, I do my best not to get too caught up in the emotional side of politics. Sharing facts so that people can make their own educated decisions is more my thing, but even then I don't have the energy or desire to participate in a big political debate. So I'm glad to pitch in periodically, b...

Ok, I read some of the stories. It seems he tried multiple times to leverage access to his Dad. Is there anywhere where there's a response/email from Joe saying "yeah, I'm in kind of trail?" I've seen no claim that Joe was ever directly on the incriminating emails. But there are emails wh...