Search found 2478 matches
- Mon May 30, 2016 11:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31311
Re: NEW FORUM HOST
I updated the style. Honestly I don't have a ton of time to work on this. If anyone sees a phpBB style they'd like to try then post it here and we'll take a look.
- Mon May 30, 2016 8:36 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31311
Re: NEW FORUM HOST
Can you do something to radically change the theme and colors? I keep thinking I'm in the Boglehead forum and it makes me want to puke. Maybe. The more I monkey with things the more likely there will be a future problem. But maybe colors will be played with. How about I make it look the interior of...
- Mon May 30, 2016 3:33 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31311
Re: NEW FORUM HOST
Avatars are now 100x100 and 16K in size.
- Mon May 30, 2016 2:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31311
Re: NEW FORUM HOST
Things are in flux. Just wanted to get something up. The theme, etc. may change. Right now I'm dealing with Russian spammers registering so I'm working on spambot countermeasures.
- Mon May 30, 2016 7:46 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31311
Re: NEW FORUM HOST
After fighting with SMF and DB backups/restore, I decided to move to phpBB which didn't cause as much drama. The forum is being slowly upgraded with avatars, etc. But most users will have to reload theirs prior to the crash. Additional plug-ins will come along that will have a lot more features than...
- Sun May 29, 2016 6:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31311
NEW FORUM HOST
Hello, We have a new forum host. DNS is being moved over so the IP address will go away after that happens in the URL. Apologies for the delay, but the old forum hosting provider (Arvixe) was not repairing the DB and they had a lot of other problems. The new site should be a lot faster and hopefully...
- Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:05 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Why it's important to keep your katana on you at all times
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3271
Re: Why it's important to keep your katana on you at all times
https://amp.twimg.com/v/b73de87e-2317-41e2-a894-e4d5f85fd14a I had to work with a wildly arrogant and socially inept goon like this for awhile. As our team's resident kung fu black belt, he maintained that if Mike Tyson tried to suckerpunch him from behind, we'd better believe that he'd at least ge...
- Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:25 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Sadness
- Replies: 13
- Views: 5189
Re: Sadness
Thanks all. I just don't have much to say on the subject any more and didn't want to maintain a website. The book we wrote has everything the blog had and much more.
- Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:15 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Iron is Toxic, Very Toxic -- Avoid At All Costs!
- Replies: 190
- Views: 75297
Re: Iron is Toxic, Very Toxic -- Avoid At All Costs!
I have seen P.D. Mangan at Rogue Fitness has been posting a lot about iron lately with similar conclusions to this thread: http://roguehealthandfitness.com/category/iron/ Sad to see the news about iron. I love using a cast iron Dutch oven for camp cooking. I might ban the use of cast iron at home an...
- Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:24 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Question for Melveyr
- Replies: 81
- Views: 42594
Re: Question for Melveyr
A risk with age dependent portfolios, aside from taking on too much risk as already noted, is they assume a smooth life glide path. Meaning that you start working at 22 out of school, work until retirement at age 65, and then begin your tour of Alaska on a cruise ship. But variable allocations can c...
- Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:51 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Any thoughts? Only that I'm in no position to criticize. Many's the time I considered the same, like every time TLT breaches 130. (I'm holding bonds directly, but TLT is a convenient and simple gauge). After Craig said he'd sell at 1%, I really got the bug. FWIW. The reason I don't comment much on ...
- Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:48 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Perhaps looking for a profitable investment (with a good risk/reward) in a deflationary environment is asking too much. The value of your money increases every year even without investing it in anything. Yes. You might just have to hold tight. Dividends from stocks will provide some income that cou...
- Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:11 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
- Replies: 101
- Views: 49192
Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
I was thinking of replacing the bonds with more of the other elements for the time being (stocks, gold, cash 33% each). That's a possibility and I've thought about that as one option if U.S. bonds do the same. It won't be as good in deflation, but if bonds are paying 1% anyway, then most of the jui...
- Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:45 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
- Replies: 101
- Views: 49192
Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Did I write 1.08%? I mean 0.96% yield on 30yr German gov bond this very morning. I used to game convexity and I made some money on yields collapsing last year. I have the utmost respect for people trying to make money off this central bank scam. But for the long term, buy & hold portfolio, 0.96...
- Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:08 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
You can already feel the investor angst as yields are getting crazy low in Europe, best summarized in this post: The fundamental issue with the EUR 30yr bonds 1% yield is this: Does it reflect the market's view? Is it a true market event or a central bank scam? The answer should be clear. It is not...
- Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:31 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Well yes I suppose there is a number for everyone. The bond number for me is 1% for sure. At that point I don't want them anymore. Under 2% I'm probably not buying them as a new investor, but if I already have them I'm not selling until 1% or so. This is all highly subjective. But with bonds you kin...
- Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:22 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Is there no history of LTT's being this low? If it has happened before how did it end? In the 1930s they supposedly hit around 1% or so. But it's hard to compare eras like this to each other. The banking system back then was far different than today still being on a gold standard and of course econ...
- Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:32 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
By the way, the maximum bond upside of that Switzerland bond is now just 11%. Of course, this assumes that its yield won't go negative, but would you buy a 50 year bond with a negative yield? No. I won't buy any long bonds under 1%. At some point the risk is just too high. Even with negative yields...
- Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:17 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Switzerland's 50 year bond (to be precise, it's actually 48 years, due 2064) yield today fell to an all time low of 0.32%. Yes, if you want to lend Switzerland money for the next 50 years, you're only going to get 0.32% interest per year. Clearly at some point investors should just not be buying bo...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:57 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165149
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
How much will we make when long bonds reach -1%? Well, I went ahead and updated my previous chart to include negative yields. The red dot represents current market conditions in the US, 30-year bond yield ~ 2.5%, price 100. If yield drops to -1%, then price is 222. http://i68.tinypic.com/xf53dc.p...
- Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:27 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I miss Craig Rowland
- Replies: 53
- Views: 26394
Re: I miss Craig Rowland
Hi, what about avoid to have a portfolio and money? Why not change the money by something else? Not land. Any ideas? Best regards. Again these are my personal opinions. I don't want to give advice to anyone on what to do. Each person is much too different, and their circumstances too different, for...
- Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:12 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I miss Craig Rowland
- Replies: 53
- Views: 26394
Re: I miss Craig Rowland
Hi Craig, but EU-PP is still working... What would you do? Regards! Look what I say is just my opinion. I can't predict the future and I actually don't recommend people follow any single person's advice as gospel. For the EU though, I would just think about making sure you maintain diversification ...
- Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:05 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I miss Craig Rowland
- Replies: 53
- Views: 26394
Re: I miss Craig Rowland
This begs the question: Which countries do you see having a strong culture, economic freedom and stability, and good prospects for the future? Frequently fewer and fewer. I suspect the situation in places like Europe will correct itself the way it always has. Either with the receiving nation succum...
- Sun Jan 24, 2016 2:37 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: AAA and AA+ national credit ratings
- Replies: 4
- Views: 4498
Re: AAA and AA+ national credit ratings
Hong Kong has a higher credit rating than the U.S. Ha! Anyone who thinks their money is safer in Hong Kong bonds than U.S. treasurys is crazy. Yeah that's hilarious. Just shows once again that not all risks show up in economist's spreadsheets. For the record, I wouldn't give the EU bonds as high a ...
- Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:39 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Effect of Ray Dalio portfolio's popularity on PP?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 9154
Re: Effect of Ray Dalio portfolio's popularity on PP?
You go to one of his seminars and you come out feeling better about yourself, but in a week you are back to where you started. Seems to me that Tony is continually remaking himself to stay relevant, and the new book is supports that view. I wouldn't rely on Tony for investment advice. MT had a gre...