Search found 1128 matches

by clacy
Sat Nov 12, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Comey be prosecuted under the Hatch Act?
Replies: 16
Views: 8824

Re: Will Comey be prosecuted under the Hatch Act?

I would say it's far more likely that Lynch is prosecuted for subverting justice.
by clacy
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Neocons
Replies: 11
Views: 6992

Re: Neocons

"You might be a neo-con if.... .....you use the term foreign entanglement with a smile on your face" .....your brother in law sits on the board of Northrop Grumman" .....you can justify supporting and funding both sides in a foreign war" .....you working for a *think tank* is a n...
by clacy
Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Neocons
Replies: 11
Views: 6992

Re: Neocons

One clear indicator is if you're constantly talking tough towards Russia/Syria and discussing setting up no-fly zones against a nuclear armed country (Russia), in one of the seemingly endless supply of useless Middle East countries (Syria) that we (US) have destabilized in the last 15 years, then y...
by clacy
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Neocons
Replies: 11
Views: 6992

Re: Neocons

I'm still trying to figure out a really good consistent definition of neoconservative. I don't consider Trump to at all be a reliable non-interventionist. I believe the markets agree with me, after seeing how well the military industrial complex firms performed today compared to the rest of the mar...
by clacy
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Neocons
Replies: 11
Views: 6992

Re: Neocons

I think the Neo-Cons will end up backing the Globalists. IMO, both political parties are re-aligning, and it's becoming Globalists vs Nationalists. Neo-Cons are open border, pro-foreign entanglement, so they will keep gravitating towards the Dems, which seem to be fixated on open borders (globalism)...
by clacy
Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8523

Re: Tallying of early votes

As far as I know, it's only ballots that have been returned and party ID that is tallied, not the actual vote counted. So for instance, hypothetically if 675K registered R's, 700K registered D's and 550K I's have returned early votes, they know the numbers returned, but they don't report who each pe...
by clacy
Fri Nov 04, 2016 11:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 337196

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

36 month performance re-balanced quarterly: 1X PP +14.8% 4.7% CAGR 0.76 Sharpe ratio -6.85% Max DD 3X PP +34.0% 10.2% CAGR 0.63 Sharpe ratio -22.46% Max DD Clearly this wasn't an ideal time for the PP with gold dragging the portfolio down, however it also wasn't a particularly bad time period either...
by clacy
Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 337196

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

11.1% each in SPXL, TMF and UGLD and the rest in SHY (rebalanced quarterly) is +12.4% YTD or 14.9% CAGR. Max DD -5.96% YTD
by clacy
Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Returns in HyperInflation Countries
Replies: 3
Views: 3823

Re: Gold Returns in HyperInflation Countries

ochotona wrote:I work with many Venezuelans, and their families are going through a terrible time now.
That's too bad. It's really sad how destructive runnaway leftism can get.
by clacy
Sat Oct 22, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Feds Warn Us That Evidence Of Election Fraud Could Be Russian Fraud
Replies: 9
Views: 5607

Re: Feds Warn Us That Evidence Of Election Fraud Could Be Russian Fraud

the elite are not people persons, if WW3 gets them power, money, thins the population, or brings them one step closer to the global government they dream of... they will be all in to make it happen... I used to think this stuff (NWO, Illuminati, Rothschilds, etc, etc) was crazy conspiracy talk, but...
by clacy
Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Feds Warn Us That Evidence Of Election Fraud Could Be Russian Fraud
Replies: 9
Views: 5607

Re: Feds Warn Us That Evidence Of Election Fraud Could Be Russian Fraud

i saw something about the wikileaks emails today that said it positively WASN'T the Russians , they wont say who it was to protect their sources.. (as it should be) but the way it was said made it sound like whistle blowers in the inside... Yep, were supposed to believe it's the Russians because Hi...
by clacy
Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What Happens When Millennials Grow Up?
Replies: 5
Views: 2665

Re: What Happens When Millennials Grow Up?

Scary picture, but probably completely accurate. This is the downside of the student loan and skyrocketing college tuition cost bonanza, among other things. So add to this the burden of the rapidly growing, unskilled, non-English speaking underclass and remember that their birthrate is going to far...
by clacy
Fri Oct 21, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What Happens When Millennials Grow Up?
Replies: 5
Views: 2665

Re: What Happens When Millennials Grow Up?

Most of the millennials I know have $400/mo Starbucks habits. They travel A LOT from what I can tell. They don't spend as much as previous generations on clothing, but they certainly love the high rent downtown city life. They value freedom and flexibility in their jobs, but that often comes at a co...
by clacy
Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: NBC/FOX Appear To Commit Blatant Polling Fraud
Replies: 36
Views: 19212

Re: NBC/FOX Appear To Commit Blatant Polling Fraud

I think the polls are tighter than they would indicate, but with that said, Trump will have to be within 2% to have a shot by Nov 4th or so. I do think it will tighten, however this lead may be insurmountable for Trump, however ANYTHING is possible in this election IMO due to Clinton's baggage. It's...
by clacy
Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Government Expenditure (Fiscal Policy aka Helicopter Money) Multiplier: -0.01
Replies: 1
Views: 1675

Re: Government Expenditure (Fiscal Policy aka Helicopter Money) Multiplier: -0.01

Yes this is definitely not rocket science. Government spending will always be less efficient than private sector spending. And more welfare = less productivity.

Most non academics don't need to see extensive studies on these topics, it's so easily understood.
by clacy
Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Presidential Debate Part Deux
Replies: 14
Views: 8169

Re: Presidential Debate Part Deux

Trump won that round and he needed it badly. I don't think it will be enough, but he at least probably kept the bottom from falling out. I think the gap will narrow and he will lose by about 2-3% in the popular vote. If a more polished politician can grab some a little bit of his fire, and borrow so...
by clacy
Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:11 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Poll: Is Trump another ringer for the Clintons?
Replies: 7
Views: 3602

Re: Poll: Is Trump another ringer for the Clintons?

I don't think Trump is but Gary Johnson is either a paid Clinton ringer or the dumbest man alive.
by clacy
Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 17151

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

33 here. I guess that's why I'm comfortable with a leveraged PP.
by clacy
Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 337196

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I may have misunderstood you, but shouldn't a 1.5x portfolio be 12.5% each SPXL/TMF/UGLD (with 62.5% SHY)?

That portfolio is up 19.9% YTD.
by clacy
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Where should I open new Roth IRA accounts
Replies: 35
Views: 15995

Re: Where should I open new Roth IRA accounts

I'm a big fan of Scottrade. Great selection of no-load, commission free mutual funds. You will pay $7/stock trade, so if you're hell bent on TLT it would cost you once or twice per year. Scottrade also offers BTTRX for free, which is a nice alternative, IMO. I would look at Interactive Brokers as we...
by clacy
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:14 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 337196

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

My overnight margin is $6300 which is carrying a portfolio value of $49,400 (numbers rounded) As one who doesn't understand futures, does this mean you are leveraged 7.8x? So if/when Yellen comes and opens her mouth and gold, for example, dumps $100 instantly, what happens? Margin call, and then ar...
by clacy
Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Pizza Drones
Replies: 20
Views: 16648

Re: Pizza Drones

As an aside, I have a relative who is very high up with one of major US aerospace/defense firms. He runs a division that sells weaponry to another part of the globe. Anyway, he said that swarming drones is the next big thing for warfare. B-2's will drop 50-75 UAV's that will each contain a couple hu...
by clacy
Sat Aug 20, 2016 10:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Single Payer Healthcare
Replies: 62
Views: 32683

Re: Single Payer Healthcare

I listened to part of an in depth radio segment discussing the problems with the ACA and they had one expert from each side of the isle. They both agreed that Obamacare is working and will continue to work for those that are at or below 200% poverty rate, and it will continue to be completely unaffo...
by clacy
Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Search engine recommendations?
Replies: 4
Views: 4156

Search engine recommendations?

Any suggestions for a good search engine that isn't working in concert with the Democratic party like Google is?
by clacy
Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 401(k) Rollover
Replies: 11
Views: 8582

Re: 401(k) Rollover

Also, do NOT mingle rollover IRA monies with non-rollover monies. Might depend on state, but more protection for rollover IRAs. Any sense whether it is OK to mingle roll-over monies from different sources? I currently have a roll-over IRA at Vanguard, so if I left my current job and rolled over my ...