mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:47 pm There is no end to the doomsday scenarios our brains can think up for any asset class

But as we know

Good point and totally agree.

Thanks for the pointers. I've made a note of the two advisors, and Faber's PDF is a good overview for newcomers to the idea of lazy portfolios. I do wonder what Harry Browne would think about the PP in this environment. The US debt seems unpayable at this point, and there appears to be zero inclina...

Seems like there is no way to first review things at their web site without them automatically bringing you here to first sign up? https://app.savebetter.com/auth/login Need to amend the above. When you do click on Sign Up it does bring to the web site before you actually have to Sign Up. Just had ...

ozzy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:51 am https://www.rparetf.com/

I took a look at RPAR and UPAR. They are down 32 and 40 percent respectively. So maybe not a good hedge to the broader market.

Just heard a good podcast MorningStars “The Long View” They we’re interviewing Dana Anspach who runs a retirement planning firm called sensible money. She seemed very good. Also Cody Garrett from Measure Twice Money seemed good. I think they are both fee only.

Thanks Vinny. That's helpful info.

Thanks! That might give me the motivation to start a trust. I need to do it anyway.

Rob Berger’s Channel

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4_sMB3z5zz0

Also hello everyone. It’s been awhile since I posted.

And there are a few pro-life women. A poll asked if I'd be ok with my CA tax dollars being used to bring women here for abortions. I said sure, grind em up we need stem cells. Newsom spent $100,000 on DeSantis' opponent, instead of using that money to help Californians https://www.youtube.com/watch...

It seems from reading many of the recent posts on several threads that a lot of people have lost faith in the government. What's next? Apathy, escapism, fix it, revolution, bend over and take one for the Gipper, bitch more, put your faith in something that is everlasting, something else, ....... ? ...

Basic question...what exactly is "Cape" and how do I calculate it? Thanks! CAPE = Cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio. It's essentially a PE ratio, using a ten-year average of earnings. You can look it up here: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Some use 1/CAPE to estimate future s...

It seems from reading many of the recent posts on several threads that a lot of people have lost faith in the government. What's next? Apathy, escapism, fix it, revolution, bend over and take one for the Gipper, bitch more, put your faith in something that is everlasting, something else, ....... ? ...

I noticed moon cakes at Costco as well.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:17 pm Random thought on my walk today:

James Rickards is the Deepak Chopra of the investment world.

I think the comparison is apt.

Good one!

As an avid reader of Gyroscopic and Bogleheads threads from years, even a decade ago, this thread gave me a strange sense of deja vu. It is remarkable how quaint the turmoil of the past seems when viewed in retrospect. I can't help but feel that all this panic about LTT will one day seem amusing (....

What I find is strange is how much of a mountain was made out of this. They had some parties while the country was locked down and he hired a person that was not vetted properly. Another dumb mistake. No funneling weapons to rogue states, war crimes, cash transfers, bribes. Just some parties and a ...

What I find is strange is how much of a mountain was made out of this. They had some parties while the country was locked down and he hired a person that was not vetted properly. Another dumb mistake. No funneling weapons to rogue states, war crimes, cash transfers, bribes. Just some parties and a h...

What is everyone’s best guess as to how many people will die from this conflict directly or indirectly. I’m thinking 2 million. Global famine, actual war, diseases of poverty, etc, etc…

Substituting Wellesley for cash in the HBPP looks great as well. Highest Sharpe, Sortino and a neutral correlation to the general market. Need to understand Wellesley better because it lowers correlations while increasing the amount of equities. Maybe the chart is a result of the timeframes which is...

If the earnings stay consistent - I eventually get it back in a higher stock price or someone a tries to acquire the company or I get a big dividend one day. Is this unusual? It’s served me very well over the last many years. Basically value investing.

Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that ...

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 5:28 pm Approximate the returns and drawdowns, maybe. I still don’t think it’s the same. It may not always be so close. And, you don’t have cash that you can withdraw.

OK

It’s also fun to try to replicate an HBPP in two components Wellesley and gold OR Wellington and gold. It’s a cool portfolio, but how is that replicating the HBPP? That’s like replicating a pizza with a bowl of spaghetti and meatballs. Also a fine dish, but not the same. Gold, Stock, Bonds, Short t...

@Mike59 thanks for the post. Excellent insights. I am about to rebalance. Hopefully, I won’t lose my nerve before I jump further into the LTT pool!