Search found 83 matches

by Jeffreyalan
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423539

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Kbg wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:03 am

Not related, I moved a small amount of money as a test case to M1 Finance. Thus far, I like it a a lot. However, I’m not committing much until I see how their executions are.
I have been using M1 Finance for a while now. I think it is perfect for a PP or something similar!
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think funds like BIL or SHY are brilliant replacements for cash. How do you feel about the safety of ETFS that hold Treasuries? I am contemplating keeping a stash of cash there and sucking up the .15 expense ratio instead of having to managing a 1-2 year treasury ladder. VGSH is .07. If you go wi...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

Kbg wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:40 pm


I think funds like BIL or SHY are brilliant replacements for cash.
How do you feel about the safety of ETFS that hold Treasuries? I am contemplating keeping a stash of cash there and sucking up the .15 expense ratio instead of having to managing a 1-2 year treasury ladder.
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think what I am struggling with are the "risk" factors. Now that we are a one-income family, we can less afford to take financial hits. But we also need to make our money grow as much as possible. That is the dilemma. Should I just put our money in the local bank money market account, earn 2.35% ...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think what I am struggling with are the "risk" factors. Now that we are a one-income family, we can less afford to take financial hits. But we also need to make our money grow as much as possible. That is the dilemma. Should I just put our money in the local bank money market account, earn 2.35% a...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

For Desert I would mix IEI and IEF ETFs in order to arrive at a 5 year intermediate average duration. IEF 7-10 to me seems to be longer than what is meant by "intermediate". Yes, these things are not strictly defined. I thought that the Desert Portfolio specifically called for 10 year Treasuries as...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I am using ETFs for the portfolio: 60% IEF (iShares 7-10 Treasury) 10% IAU (iShares Gold) 15% MGC (Vanguard Large Cap) 15% SLY (SPDR Small Cap) I use M1 Finance as my broker. They are perfect to run such a portfolio. I can deposit $500 there and they will buy $500 in the exact percentages I specifie...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

Would most feel comfortable keeping 100% of your savings in the Desert Portfolio? Is it safe enough from major losses and wild swings? In the year I have been invested in it, it has been fairly docile.
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17117

Desert Portfolio Question

I have a question for the group. I decided about a year ago to run a Desert Portfolio (60% 10 year Treasury, 30% TSM, 10% Gold) for my savings instead of the traditional 4x PP. It just about broke even last year which is what you would expect given the market A backtest of this portfolio from 2008 s...
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2018 Results Post Here
Replies: 26
Views: 17162

Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Desert Portfolio

-1.15%

IEF (7-10 yr Treasury) 60%
IAU (Gold) 10%
VTI (US Stocks) 30%
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 67
Views: 37175

Re: Worst investing year ever...

Any love here for The Desert Portfolio that has outperformed the PP since 2008 with less volitility? The Desert Portfolio was designed for someone skittish about holding gold, and it does very well though doesn't allow for as high a withdrawal rate as the PP/GB. Its weakness is performance during a...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 67
Views: 37175

Re: Worst investing year ever...

Any love here for The Desert Portfolio that has outperformed the PP since 2008 with less volitility?
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold, What is it Good For?
Replies: 25
Views: 16061

Re: Gold, What is it Good For?

The question asked a few posts back is a good one. If Central Banks hold almost 20% of the world’s gold and if some of them (like Russia) are stocking up on it, does that tell me as an individual investor that it needs to be a part of my portfolio? Or are their curcumstances different?
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Discussion with a friend re:PP
Replies: 4
Views: 3138

Discussion with a friend re:PP

So today I was discussing the PP with a friend. He said that he just cannot buy something that he knows will decline. His argument was that at the beginning of 2018, the chances were almost 100% that the FED was going to do 3-4 rate increases over the year. So by buying long term bonds (or TLT) this...
by Jeffreyalan
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Purpose of the PP
Replies: 152
Views: 76524

Purpose of the PP

I have been reading (and occasionally) posting on this forum for a while. I have a question for those of you using the PP, either the standard 4x or your own variation. What is the purpose you are using it for? Are you using it as your primary savings vehicle? A secondary savings account? An investm...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Replies: 39
Views: 19889

Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance

My particular PP variant is up 4% since April. It is:

40% TFLO. Ishares Floating Rate Treasury ETF
15% EDV Vanguard Extended Treasury
10% IAU. Ishares Gold ETF
17.5. MDYG Spdr Midcap Growth
17.5 SLYG. Spdr Small Cap Growth


Being low on gold has certainly helped this year.
by Jeffreyalan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14442

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

So what is the harm in tweaking the PP to have more volatility parity? For example, to match volatilities over the past 10 years you would need: 25% Cash (SHV) 25% Gold (GLD) 25% LT Bonds (50% TLT 50% EDV) 25% Small Cap Stocks (SLY) Making those tweaks gives you a CAGR of 7.23% vs 6.14% for the stan...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All Treasury Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 10739

All Treasury Portfolio

I would like to get the advice of people on this board as I respect your opinions and viewpoints immensely. I am turning 50 this year and have about 15 years until retirement (I hope). So what would be the drawbacks of an all-Treasury portfolio? If the purpose of the PP is to protect against various...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Opinions on my variable portfolios
Replies: 5
Views: 4547

Re: Opinions on my variable portfolios

Comments on the portfolio...risk, only you can decide. As a minimum, that cash needs to be working for you because there is so much of it. If it isn't being put to work just go ahead and roll about 2.5% of it up every year into a ball and burn it. (Well technically that would double your loss to in...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Opinions on my variable portfolios
Replies: 5
Views: 4547

Opinions on my variable portfolios

I have been backtesting a couple of variable ETF portfolios for risk vs return and I seem to have found a couple that seem to work for me. Any thoughts on them? Portfolio #1: 40% Cash 25% IJR (small cap index) 20% IAU (gold) 15% EDV (vanguard extended duration) Portfolio #2: 60% Cash 15% IAU (gold) ...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu May 24, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15453

Re: Investing new money now

I use M1 Finance as my broker. So it is commission free and I can contribute a lump sum of cash and they will automatically purchase the ETFs in the amounts to get me to my preselected percentages. It seems to be a brokerage tailor made for PP (and other fixed asset allocation) investing. Wow, that...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu May 24, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15453

Re: Investing new money now

I use M1 Finance as my broker. So it is commission free and I can contribute a lump sum of cash and they will automatically purchase the ETFs in the amounts to get me to my preselected percentages. It seems to be a brokerage tailor made for PP (and other fixed asset allocation) investing.
by Jeffreyalan
Tue May 22, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15453

Re: Investing new money now

I buy the lagging asset, with the same idea that it usually happens to be whatever has been discounted by poor recent performance. This has always been my approach as well. It drives a healthy contrarian buying behavior. So how do you measure the lagging asset? In my case since I am investing in th...
by Jeffreyalan
Tue May 22, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15453

Re: Investing new money now

Not to hijack the thread, but for someone who is making regular contributions to the PP, in my case bi-weekly, are there any thoughts as to when or how to invest those funds? Am I better off just buying 25% of each asset bi-weekly? Or should I buy only cash and then rebalance at a set time or when a...
by Jeffreyalan
Tue May 08, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question on safety of ETFs
Replies: 11
Views: 8545

Question on safety of ETFs

So I will confess that back in 2011 I succumbed to the siren call of the “doom porn” crowd. I read Schiff, Rickards and David Morgan. And slowly proceeded to lose several thousand dollars on silver and shorting treasury bonds ( since i was convinced of the $$ collapse any day). Then i finally starte...