Search found 730 matches

by D1984
Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Non financial stock ETF
Replies: 1
Views: 1456

Re: Non financial stock ETF

dopplerdave wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:14 pm
Does anyone know of a broad market ETF that does NOT include financial companies (banks, insurance companies, etc.)?
ProShares S&P 500 ex-Financials ETF; the ticker symbol is SPXN.
by D1984
Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
Replies: 3
Views: 1678

Re: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach

https://allocatesmartly.com/predicting-us-treasury-returns/ This seems to solve the "what if long bond interest rates keep going up from here?" It trades once a month between IEF and T-Bills. Sometimes it's very cashy, sometimes it's very bondy. It's down like -2% from Aug 2020... B&H IEF is -16% S...
by D1984
Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: iShares GOVT as bond holding
Replies: 7
Views: 1328

Re: iShares GOVT as bond holding

Just playing around with backtests. BelangP's model doesn't look too bad. You would have to model it with a high dividend ETF that went through a period where bonds performed well though ... How far back would that need to be? DVY goes back to 2003; FDL (extended by using its underlying index back ...
by D1984
Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68367

Re: International stocks?

Is the idea behind the Permanent Portfolio and Golden Butterfly only needing domestic US stocks (for US investors) that the gold provides sufficient hedging against foreign exchange movements? Yes, that is the idea I have come to believe (at least for US investors). Tyler has an article on Portfoli...
by D1984
Thu Apr 20, 2023 9:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68367

Re: International stocks?

Currency purchasing power equilibrates over time. Why is the market consistently over-valuing international. Or is this too short a time frame. Total US vs total world See https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2008&firstMonth=7&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&c...
by D1984
Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:44 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 55666

Re: Home Freeze Drying

D1984 is gonna get freeze-dried IIRC CA is going to give free healthcare to illegals over 50 "Is gonna get freeze dried"? What the heck is that supposed to mean? Stop resorting to nonsense and insults and ad hominem and come up with some actual fact-based arguments if you want to be taken seriously...
by D1984
Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 55666

Re: Home Freeze Drying

At 20 amps / 110 volts and at my cost of electricity a total cost of $4.00 in electricity would be running it only 5 hours for that batch. But why should we care? California has just decreed that everyone gets unlimited electricity for $20 a month. Under the new plan, you’ll pay just $20 / month if...
by D1984
Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:13 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value fund without a large allocation to financials
Replies: 3
Views: 1744

Re: Small Cap Value fund without a large allocation to financials

Does anyone know of a good Small Cap Value fund without a large allocation to Small Cap "Value" financials. I want to make a purchase but Vanguards VBR, I believe, has over 20 percent in financials at the moment. A few that come to mind: Mutual funds: TNVCX 2.3% in financials HFMDX Around 3.5% in f...
by D1984
Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:24 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Active management - recent winners
Replies: 6
Views: 2236

Re: Active management - recent winners

Yes, there's a paywall. Would you mind telling us what particular funds were being featured? I'd be curious to look at their holdings. I don't have access to the article directly but by searching using some (non-Google) search engines I was able to find a copy of the article that was non-paywalled....
by D1984
Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 5
Views: 1640

Re: Moonshots

Three quick questions: One, is there any reason almost all of their strategies--including this one--seem to only go back to 1970 (i.e. only be backtested back to that date), or 1972, or 1973? I would be very suspicious of any backtest that went back past the early 1970s, as the nature of money was ...
by D1984
Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 5
Views: 1640

Re: Moonshots

Make this your moonshot. I have 10% of my portfolio going to this. Look at how low the drawdown is, backtested 50 years. Look at the Sharpe / Sortino ratios. https://allocatesmartly.com/bold-asset-allocation/ Warning - seriously not tax efficient, lots of trading per year, so only use it in an IRA ...
by D1984
Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24718

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

The only portfolio ever posted here that was arguably stupid was techno's 50%+ gold allocation Honestly, I didn't understand his portfolio back when he was posting here, but I get it now. He was far ahead of me in contempt for the US government political and financial leadership at places like the ...
by D1984
Sat Apr 08, 2023 4:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74316

Re: How much to save for retirement

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. That they have. But several things are different now. First, people are living longer while getting substantially less healthy. That means far more time spent n...
by D1984
Thu Apr 06, 2023 10:48 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: President Kennedy?
Replies: 2
Views: 897

Re: President Kennedy?

Ron Paul's discussion: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s filing papers to run for president yesterday has thrown a massive monkey wrench into the 2024 US Presidential campaign. Suddenly it looks like the seemingly-ailing President Biden will have a real challenger for the Democratic Party nomination. But ho...
by D1984
Sat Apr 01, 2023 3:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74316

Re: How much to save for retirement

Looks like Tyler beat me to it somewhat but yeah, the "average" balance is well above the median balance: Quoting directly from Vanguard's "How America Saves for Retirement: 2022" report (at https://institutional.vanguard.com/content/dam/inst/vanguard-has/insights-pdfs/22_TL_HAS_FullReport_2022.pdf ...
by D1984
Sat Mar 25, 2023 11:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Socialism - Should we be worried
Replies: 65
Views: 39051

Re: Socialism - Should we be worried

I think the writing is on the wall that the wealthy (including the traditional middle-class) are going to increasingly vilified and made to do penance for whatever inequality happens to be the focus of concern. I definitely agree it's not justified or helpful to villianize the wealthy. But I wonder...
by D1984
Tue Sep 13, 2022 1:02 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 136
Views: 14064

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

B. Means that the if the employee is really adding, say, $30 an hour in economic value to the company should the employer really be only trying to get away with paying him, say $20 an hour in pay and benefits? If an employee is truly so useless that he's asking for more than he's worth then fire hi...
by D1984
Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:35 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 136
Views: 14064

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

Oh, and as for a place that is really "run by unions" Illinois doesn't hold an even barely flickering candle to Scandinavia . There was an instance back in 2019 where Finland's postal service tried to move just 700 workers into a new contract and new collective bargaining unit that effectively woul...
by D1984
Sat Sep 10, 2022 10:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 136
Views: 14064

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

I thought it was interesting to see what union membership looks like around the world. In the global context, I'm not sure I'd call either the US or Illinois union heavy, at least in terms of membership. If unions have significant political influence that may be a different story. BTW, I was surpri...
by D1984
Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:50 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 136
Views: 14064

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

2. Unions becoming less and less powerful and less people being represented by them as--from the mid 70s onward--the government and NLRB turned more and more of a blind eye to union busting tactics by companies. You should move to IL. You would love it here. The unions pretty much run everything he...
by D1984
Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:31 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 136
Views: 14064

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

Excellent response D1984, seriously. I always enjoy informed, well articulated push back to anything I write. It's how we learn/expand our knowledge base. Won't argue with the basic premise of what you wrote...at the end of the day we simply recovered to the early 70s with the data I showed. I also...
by D1984
Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:44 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 136
Views: 14064

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

And folks here's the deal...both parties are completely lying out of both sides of their mouths economically...what you see here is average hour wages (non-management types) divided by the CPI. Even if you think CPI is crap, it's still been the same denominator for the most part. Economically folks...
by D1984
Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385496

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Appreciate the posts that are going. Let me take a quote and swap out some words. When secular individuals and organizations attempt to blend their beliefs with political machinery, it seems that it ends up looking mostly like politics and like they are forcing their beliefs on others. Putting the ...
by D1984
Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:31 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Interesting Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 1452

Re: Interesting Portfolio

I've been reading a really quite boring finance book lately and came across a chart/section of the book that essentially stated long bonds and commodities cycle opposite to each other...so I said to myself...hmmm...what if we try something like QQQ, TLT/EDV and DBC in a hold two momentum or some ot...
by D1984
Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Any ideas on how to remove unwanted secions of images from a PDF
Replies: 5
Views: 1117

Re: Any ideas on how to remove unwanted secions of images from a PDF

Tyler, glennds, Thanks for those tips! Using both Acrobat Pro (with its page crop/cropbox features and --in the few situations where cropping was untenable--print-screening the whole screen, pasting to Paint, copying into another Paint window the section of plain yellowed page needed to paste over t...