Search found 2815 matches

by Kbg
Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 1702

Re: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

It indeed is now. There's some discussion over at BH on implementation details if you want to dig deeper.
by Kbg
Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 53
Views: 37536

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

dopplerdave wrote:
Mon Oct 24, 2022 5:52 pm
What is interesting is that in every case, the expense ratio was significantly lower than I was paying with BlackRock. So it was well worth the exercise of looking for alternatives even if you are not concerned about their ESG motivations.
Yep, more money in your pocket less in the managers.
by Kbg
Mon Oct 24, 2022 1:30 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 77
Views: 14382

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

@joypog is talking about the recently ousted British Prime Minister. I believe it was the shorted tenure in British history. Also it’s interesting to watch everyone freak out in Europe about skyrocketing prices of fuel etc, etc… When this could be forseen at the beginning of the NATO response to Ru...
by Kbg
Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:23 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Finance Books for Free
Replies: 17
Views: 3343

Re: Finance Books for Free

Is the Charles Schwab book a good one? First I've heard of it.
by Kbg
Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2246
Views: 1147151

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Very tasty and slightly more healthy...

Sausage and egg McMuffin...no cheese, no butter. Make sure you get a couple of hot picante to put some flavor back in it.
by Kbg
Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:16 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Fourth Branch of Government
Replies: 42
Views: 9244

Re: The Fourth Branch of Government

But you said that Trump’s Deep State team (with nobody on it, apparently) was now 0-2. Based on your link, that would refer to the Durham investigation. Were you referring to something else? Because I’m not sure Durham or Barr were on Trump’s team at all. It’s possible that they were more concerned...
by Kbg
Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:01 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 77
Views: 14382

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

?
by Kbg
Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Mosler on current inflation...the MMT response
Replies: 6
Views: 2229

Re: Mosler on current inflation...the MMT response

+1 to everything PS wrote. Monetary policy has an effect, but it is nowhere near as strong as reality. And, we have a lot of "reality bites" things going on. My take is we are going to see inflation begin to taper off a bit. Some fundamentals (particularly housing) have nosed over and are heading so...
by Kbg
Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:51 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash as an inflation hedge
Replies: 8
Views: 2839

Re: Cash as an inflation hedge

So, while I like the certainty of knowing what I am going to get in nominal dollars with my shorter maturity Bills, it's at least somewhat likely that that 4.64% yield on the 20-year could be seen as a great deal over the life of the bond. This is just a mental exercise for me at the moment but I'd...
by Kbg
Sat Oct 22, 2022 10:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 53
Views: 37536

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

Hmmm…be a greedy capitalist with your money. Buy the lowest cost etf and support some anti esg charity organization instead. Likely far more effective.
by Kbg
Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:13 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash as an inflation hedge
Replies: 8
Views: 2839

Re: Cash as an inflation hedge

Personally I am laddering treasuries at 3, 6, 9 & 12 months. That has worked well, I guess, though I am (obviously) always behind the curve. Will wait a bit longer before extending those maturities. I think going anywhere out to where the yield curve begins to dip the wrong way (IIRC around the 3 y...
by Kbg
Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Fourth Branch of Government
Replies: 42
Views: 9244

Re: The Fourth Branch of Government

Who do you think is on “Trump’s Deep State Team”? Should we just casually dismiss the FBI’s transgressions? Nobody now, but rest assured the deep state's actions are driven by the politicos not the peons. If one hates the deep state and think it's a Democrat only thing I laugh heartily in your face...
by Kbg
Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:43 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash as an inflation hedge
Replies: 8
Views: 2839

Re: Cash as an inflation hedge

I think it's important to realize we have two things going on now. 1, the continued run down off of debt purchases and 2, active and historically extremely large fed fund rate increases. Unrelenting .75% a step is a pretty steep path and I think the Fed is quite serious that they are going to do wha...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 18, 2022 5:31 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Fourth Branch of Government
Replies: 42
Views: 9244

Re: The Fourth Branch of Government

Trump's Deep State team not doing so well where things like facts and evidence matter. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63305382 0 for 2. Waiting for the right wing outrage on behalf of Mr. Danchenko. For sure though...2015-2017 were not good years for the FBI. As I've said many times on thi...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 18, 2022 5:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2246
Views: 1147151

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Wow, that's some serious reading. Hat tip your way Mr. Vnatale.
by Kbg
Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:53 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I-bonds from tax refund
Replies: 37
Views: 9397

Re: I-bonds from tax refund

jhogue, you may have saved the day! I went back to the e-mail I received from Treasury Direct after creating the account, and the first digit of the account number was actually a letter. My eyes are so bad these days! Let's see if that makes a difference! It should work. I bought some st bills just...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Doug Casey's honorable mention of the PP
Replies: 2
Views: 1239

Re: Doug Casey's honorable mention of the PP

Hal wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:45 pm
PS: Thanks also to KBG on his Optimisation post
U R welcome!
by Kbg
Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:38 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2246
Views: 1147151

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

+1 on the congratulations!
by Kbg
Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140610

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Just pointing out that an 18% drop in a year is not unprecedented for the PP. I don't believe the yearly data show it as it's only happened intra-year so far. Fingers crossed that happens this time too. When has it happened before? I'm using daily data for all four assets going back to 1972... The ...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Optimisation - A waste of time?
Replies: 3
Views: 1403

Re: Optimisation - A waste of time?

The fundamental problem with optimization is that it is a view of the historical past and highly dependent on starting and end dates. Do the same studies and try a couple of alternatives. Do a rolling 10 year optimization (take 10 year chunks and run the optimization 1972-1981, 82-91 etc.) Do a move...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1776026

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Will we not still get colds and be sick in the same ways we did pre-Covid? IDK, zero expertise. I have read a couple of articles (sort of skimmed them really) that suggest the Covid virus is intermingling with other flu viruses and changing them. (This shouldn't be surprising as that is what viruse...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: "Here’s Why I Took Cash Out of The Bank"
Replies: 4
Views: 588

Re: "Here’s Why I Took Cash Out of The Bank"

Looks like he is a prepper kind of person...which is completely ok in my view. There's a downside to that approach on life in terms of opportunity costs, but if what you assume comes true then the tradeoff was probably a good one.
by Kbg
Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:53 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1159
Views: 826652

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Well, well, well. It seems that the "true believers" of the democratic party are finally figuring out who their party really is. And it's an awesome thing to behold. https://twitter.com/i/status/1580364662419312641 Apparently the guy has read zero about what's going on on the ground. You'll never s...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140610

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Just pointing out that an 18% drop in a year is not unprecedented for the PP. I don't believe the yearly data show it as it's only happened intra-year so far. Fingers crossed that happens this time too. When has it happened before? This is the worst ever drawdown for the PP according to PV and like...