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by Mark Leavy
Sat Apr 22, 2023 11:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 74707

Re: Home Freeze Drying

Thoroughly loving this topic. The whole "freeze" then sublimate process is brilliant.
I'll probably stick to slicing eye of round into strips and hanging it in the desert breeze, but... all kinds of food preservation are fascinating.
by Mark Leavy
Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 74707

Re: Home Freeze Drying

With freeze dried meat, (whole pieces or strips, not ground) do you just open the package and eat it like jerky? Or throw it in stews? Or what?
by Mark Leavy
Sat Apr 15, 2023 6:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 74707

Re: Home Freeze Drying

Super fun! Thanks for the report. I had toyed with building one at one time and it's great to know that the real ones actually work.
by Mark Leavy
Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32174

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

Didnt work as well as expected. I should post this on Bogleheads. "50% gold is a good portfolio" What didn't you expect? You had several polite, well thought out responses to your post. Information, expansion, requests for your thoughts. Adult discussion. I think the responses speak highl...
by Mark Leavy
Fri Apr 07, 2023 8:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32174

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

boglerdude wrote: Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:35 pm The only portfolio ever posted here that was arguably stupid was techno's 50%+ gold allocation
I'd be interested in your dissection of technovelist's utility function.
by Mark Leavy
Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1776128

Re: The GOLD scream room

All time highs >:D Would have to rise to 2460/ounce to compare to the September 2011 high (1855/ounce price 33% inflation (dollar devaluation) since then) >:D Is presently comparable to the 1979 highs (in real terms). Thank you seajay. And even in nominal terms, the posted high was 2075 in August 2...
by Mark Leavy
Tue Apr 04, 2023 3:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1776128

Re: The GOLD scream room

Like you, I typically use GC=F ticker as a rough proxy of the gold spot price since that’s the closest thing I can find on my stocks app. And usually, it seems to be reasonably close to spot. But yesterday there seemed to be a much bigger difference between GC=F and spot, and that’s when it became ...
by Mark Leavy
Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: TikTok ban thoughts?
Replies: 26
Views: 24836

Re: TikTok ban thoughts?

The "Ban TikTok" Bill (full text) is misnomered. It is a generic Bill that grants nearly "Patriot Act" powers to go after anyone (Section 3) that the government deems a security risk and grants them authority to access any of the suspect's electronic devices and networks - from c...
by Mark Leavy
Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 78348

Re: I'M OUT!

Nothing wrong with taking a step back when you feel that things are out of whack. Best move in that situation is to move your net worth to risk free assets that will return the risk free rate - and then reconnoiter. If you have the suspicion that the system is broken, but you don't yet know how or w...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

... I dont know anyone who needs 250,000 liquidity always instantly available. Businesses need that liquidity to make payroll, pay the janitor, pay the rent, suck up the 3 months accounts receivables. $250K is shite. Business should have to pay for high limits like that ... Interesting. I don't dis...
by Mark Leavy
Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

... It's interesting, and other than the interest expense to the borrowing bank, I'm not seeing a negative effect on anyone, even though something about it feels like sleight of hand to the layperson. ... The negative aspect is that the loans are secured with crap collateral. 30 year treasuries and...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

That worked out great for several years until one day she called me to tell me that the bank examiners had come by and discovered blank transfer forms signed by me. Nice work. But it's a problem. The average business that wants to function and stay insured and stay legal has to hire deviants. Someo...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Or... back to my first question, am I missing something? Of the companies that you advise, how many of them have over $1 million per month of cash flow? And of those companies, how many of them keep their working cash in more than ten bank accounts, or have a system to overflow into short term Trea...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

boglerdude wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:51 pm So I wont be able to fund my Juicero 2.0 :/
I can hook you up bro. Send photo of wife and boat.
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Feds announce that all SVB depositors will be made whole. Even those above $250K. It seems like someone explained the situation to them. Still, just a stop gap. This solution is a bit capricious and not a good foundation for future planning. Best to assume that any future failures won't be covered ...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Kriegsspiel wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:14 pm That was a good Noticing.
l33t supa h4x0r knows l33t supa h4x0r
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

In 1991 when Bank of New England failed, the FDIC stepped in and insured all depositors including those over the (then) $100,000 limit. They did so for the exact reasons your quote describes, namely to prevent panic among depositors that would spread throughout the financial system. Since then, the...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Feds just closed Signature Bank out of NYC.

Major Kudos to the treasury department intern that used the leet URL.
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:45 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2302
Views: 1428050

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Smith1776 wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:38 pm Close enough so as to not be inconvenient to grab a beer and walk around Harvard campus.
So, less than about 20,000 Smoots?
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 3:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

One of the OG forum founders here sent me a link to this video . If you want to listen to a recount of how the SVB collapse played out for startup founders on Thursday and Friday - it is accurate. Pretty much a play by play of how it went down for my partners and I. We're not nearly as exposed as so...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChatGPT and what it means for our future
Replies: 135
Views: 58257

Re: ChatGPT and what it means for our future

But also, does ChatGPT have good game? Might need to explore that angle... I don't play in the same crowd as you, Kriegs. But a few times I've gotten a long rambling email from the girlfriend and I couldn't make heads nor tails of it. I asked the AI to break it into relevant bullet points, summariz...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

That's a massive amount of money. I wonder what effect it might have on the treasury and short term debt markets to experience a sudden epic buy volume like that. I guess we'll find out. Fortunately, a lot of corporate CFO's aren't as on the ball as we would like to imagine. Certainly there will be...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:35 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChatGPT and what it means for our future
Replies: 135
Views: 58257

Re: ChatGPT and what it means for our future

Latest Southpark Episode. Featuring ChatGPT.
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:40 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Mark Leavy wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:26 pm ..., but that is a logistical nightmare and probably frowned upon if SVB also happened to be one of your VC funders.

Ha! I was just guessing earlier, but ... good guess.

Mark Cuban.png
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by Mark Leavy
Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 130
Views: 491038

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

That's got to be deflationary doesn't it? It puts the Feds in a tight spot. SVB (and a lot of other regional banks) were not able to write enough high quality loans to offset all of the depositor's funds. So they bought long dated treasuries. And didn't hedge them with interest rate swaps. And over...