Search found 1349 matches

by Hal
Fri May 19, 2023 8:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20391

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Out of curiosity, I compared the Weird Portfolio to one I'd played around with for some time (I call it 25s, or Golden Quarters), a hybrid of the GB and PP, but with more stock allocation, it is 25% TSM, 25% SCV, 25% Gold, 25% ITT. Any thoughts? Would suggest you try modelling the Quarters Portfoli...
by Hal
Thu May 18, 2023 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 53
Views: 37630

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

by Hal
Mon May 01, 2023 8:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Another Covid thread (2023 April)
Replies: 7
Views: 1179

Re: Another Covid thread (2023 April)

Just had this emailed to me today. Nice touch with the voice over guy... :o
https://www.facebook.com/DangerDanAndre ... 489161231/
by Hal
Fri Apr 28, 2023 7:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: iShares GOVT as bond holding
Replies: 7
Views: 1328

Re: iShares GOVT as bond holding

On second thought, is there a particular reason why BelangP uses a high dividend index fund Paul explained his reasoning in one of these podcasts https://www.fundyourretirement.com/?s=Paul+Belanger Unfortunately they changed the website layout, so I don't have a link to the particular talk anymore....
by Hal
Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: iShares GOVT as bond holding
Replies: 7
Views: 1328

Re: iShares GOVT as bond holding

Just playing around with backtests. BelangP's model doesn't look too bad. You would have to model it with a high dividend ETF that went through a period where Bonds performed well though...
by Hal
Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: gold beats bonds for 30 years
Replies: 6
Views: 1250

Re: gold beats bonds for 30 years

Mathjaks observation from a Gold perspective.
by Hal
Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: gold beats bonds for 30 years
Replies: 6
Views: 1250

Re: gold beats bonds for 30 years

Thanks Mathjack,

Quite interesting. Is the only purpose of holding bonds to reduce volatility?
As an aside, just happened to come across this a couple of minutes ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7_AS9CVZbY
by Hal
Fri Apr 14, 2023 8:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24755

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

But again my followup would be to ask whether there is even a weak correlation, in other words if the dollar is strengthening is it more likely (even a little bit) that foreign stocks will go either up or down? Hi Stuper, Have a listen to this slightly dated talk. Makes me wonder if we should be lo...
by Hal
Fri Apr 14, 2023 1:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24755

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

I don't really understand the relationship between foreign currencies and foreign stocks. Aren't they somewhat at odds with each other? So when a country's currency gets stronger, its stock prices can be affected negatively? I feel like I'm hearing conflicting advice on this issue. Some people say ...
by Hal
Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Comparison with Bridgewater All Weather fund
Replies: 0
Views: 51181

Comparison with Bridgewater All Weather fund

Interesting comparison.
https://corcapital.com.au/wp-content/up ... 3-v2_1.pdf

But the fees make me think this fund is run by Mafia Mutual....
by Hal
Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Considering the Goldsmith PP ?
Replies: 0
Views: 1038

Considering the Goldsmith PP ?

Interesting article 8)

https://static.vgcontent.info/crp/intl/ ... epaper.pdf

ps: If anyone has other countries whitepapers on this, feel free to post.
by Hal
Tue Apr 11, 2023 11:08 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Active management - recent winners
Replies: 6
Views: 2238

Re: Active management - recent winners

Xan wrote:
Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:31 am

It reminds me of that interview we've linked here several times with the guy whose name escapes me who invests in small businesses that do unique things.
Is this the interview you were thinking of?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4
by Hal
Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24755

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

Does anyone have any thoughts on the prospects of these options going forward for someone in the decumulation stage? They have all worked fine in the past. It's the future that's hard to know. Cannot comment on future prospects, but your allocation is similar to BelangP's. I think he uses 2:1 High ...
by Hal
Sat Apr 08, 2023 8:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24755

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

stuper1 wrote:
Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:49 am
A 50/50 stock/gold split has a better average annual return than the traditional benchmark 60/40 portfolio.
So would you, or other forum members, feel comfortable with a 50/50 portfolio then?
https://www.merkinvestments.com/insight ... -12-10.php
by Hal
Wed Apr 05, 2023 5:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24755

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

Fun! I'd imagine that if the US "loses" reserve currency status, then you wouldn't want to have much of an allocation to international stocks. /crystal ball Hi Kriegs, agree, fun topic! Wonder if we could use what happened to Britain post WW2 as a guide to possible outcomes. Not sure where we can f...
by Hal
Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24755

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

What would Harry Browne do in this situation? Increase our gold allocation? Add an allocation to international stocks, and if so, how much and which sectors? Decrease our allocation to long-term Treasuries? What about short-term Treasuries? I welcome constructive input but again I don't really want...
by Hal
Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:53 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 6698

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

Does anyone else want to take a stab at honestly describing their own "simple" set up? I mean, I assume that many here hold at least four assets in three accounts that each have different tax treatment, correct? Well... first the rationale! 1. Has to be easy for another family member to manage who ...
by Hal
Wed Mar 29, 2023 5:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60136

Re: I'M OUT!

Semi-serious response to Maddy's original post ::)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C768oeSvJ5c
by Hal
Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International PP / theory
Replies: 11
Views: 2839

Re: International PP / theory

This allocation has a great ulcer index - but it's at the bottom of the table for almost all other metrics? I've spent quite some time playing with the charts and backtesting ideas - they're great and addictive but in the end they're tools. Given my rookie level of understanding I'd really like to ...
by Hal
Thu Mar 23, 2023 4:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International PP / theory
Replies: 11
Views: 2839

Re: International PP / theory

Those in turn lead me to try to understand what would be an optimal PP (or GB *) for a "countryless", itinerant person (a bit like me) but the more I research that topic, the more it's becoming intractable :) (I'm probably overthinking it but I'm really interested in understanding the theory). Well...
by Hal
Thu Mar 23, 2023 5:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International PP / theory
Replies: 11
Views: 2839

Re: International PP / theory

Good evening Witchcraft, Congratulations on your first post. It's late here in Australia so I will be brief. For my purposes I use Smithys GoldSmith portfolio (see footnote) and a retirement fund consisting of 2:1 International Fixed Interest (Hedged to AUD) to International Equities and 25% Gold ou...
by Hal
Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60136

Re: I'M OUT!

For my pennies worth.... It's always good to have a plan B. For me, I plan to switch over to the BelangP portfolio when I consider the PP is no longer viable. HB said himself in his radio show, that if everything went to to pieces you would still have 25% Gold. What he didn't say was how not to reba...