Search found 2336 matches

by AdamA
Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Flare Safe Investing ?
Replies: 13
Views: 5922

Re: Flare Safe Investing ?

His haircut makes me feel uncomfortable : )
by AdamA
Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Deutsche Bank
Replies: 3
Views: 3452

Deutsche Bank

http://www.moneynews.com/FinanceNews/NY ... /id/385478

What are the implications of Deutsche Bank's purchase of the NYSE?

Opinions?
by AdamA
Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: VIX
Replies: 6
Views: 3266

Re: VIX

Clive wrote: If anything short selling the short VIX (XXV) might be the better choice if you entered that realm.
Don't worry.  I barely even understand what the VXX is.  This is strictly academic. 
by AdamA
Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:07 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: EE Series Savings Bonds
Replies: 30
Views: 18460

Re: EE Series Savings Bonds

I'm curious about this as well.  I'm simply uncertain as to what I should expect from Ibonds and EEbonds vs. short term treasuries (in spite of all the discussion).
by AdamA
Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What software do you use to keep track of your pp ?
Replies: 45
Views: 22040

Re: What software do you use to keep track of your pp ?

I think Excel is good.  I use the XIRR function to track my returns. 
by AdamA
Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: VIX
Replies: 6
Views: 3266

Re: VIX

I didn't backtest the numbers, but from the chart VXX has certainly taken a dive since 2009.  Opposite of gold and treasuries.
by AdamA
Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: VIX
Replies: 6
Views: 3266

VIX

I'm not really a variable portfolio guy, but am curious anyway...

Has anyone thought about a VP that makes use of the VIX (ticker VXX)?  Was thinking maybe something like 90% VTI  10% VXX using bands to rebalance. 
by AdamA
Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:41 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: 1-3 yrs bond ladder
Replies: 14
Views: 10963

Re: 1-3 yrs bond ladder

moda0306 wrote: Boards/Blogs like this inspire wisdom.  
That is very true. 

It's amazing how something like a simple investment strategy can change your perspective on so many different things.
by AdamA
Sun Feb 13, 2011 9:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Article
Replies: 13
Views: 7988

Re: Article

In a sense the author's right.  If you're holding gold b/c you think it's gonna be worth $10K an ounce and you're gonna sell at the top, then it might be a good idea to listen to this guy. 

As usual, it ignores gold's role as a portfolio diversifier, which is why it's included in the PP.
by AdamA
Sun Feb 13, 2011 3:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne
Replies: 22
Views: 11061

Re: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne

active managers are often enormously intelligent and well-informed people with plans A great example is a debate I heard between Peter Schiff and Robert Prechter a few months ago.  Schiff is a staunch inflationist, and Prechter a deflationist who predicts the Dow could reach triple digits within th...
by AdamA
Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne
Replies: 22
Views: 11061

Re: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne

MT said:  "Many of the people I love reading and listening to have terrible track records because what was supposed to happen didn't (or it happened, but not at the right time)." This is an interesting point.  I think it is common for those of us who use the PP strategy to act as though th...
by AdamA
Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 30 Year Yield Has Hit Its 2011 High
Replies: 82
Views: 31445

Re: The 30 Year Yield Has Hit Its 2011 High

[quote="MediumTex"] I think that one of the untold stories (or at least the scale of the story hasn't been widely told) of the two wars described above is the future expense of caring for all of the physical and mental problems in soldiers who in past wars would have been killed in action....
by AdamA
Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne
Replies: 22
Views: 11061

Re: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne

Hrux said:  "What it says to me is that you should have bought the areas of the stock market that were clearly undervalued 10 years ago, rather that cap weighted indices." What were those areas ten years ago?  What are those areas today? Hrux said:  "You all are probably getting tired...
by AdamA
Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio for younger investor
Replies: 10
Views: 5979

Re: Permanent Portfolio for younger investor

Rebalancing to me seems to be a key piece of the Permanent Portfolio that hasn't been analyzed with enough depth....(then again, maybe it has and I just haven't come across the info yet.) I would be curious to find out (based on tax bracket) what the ideal rebalancing levels are to maximize CAGR an...
by AdamA
Sat Feb 12, 2011 11:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne
Replies: 22
Views: 11061

Re: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne

When people say it's overpriced, it usually means that 1) they think gold is overpriced... I like gold much more, as a part of the PP, when it's cheap and viewed as an obsolete investment by most.  I don't like when it does well, because it usually means the economy is doing poorly.  I do enjoy sel...
by AdamA
Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne
Replies: 22
Views: 11061

Re: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne

...you'd end up in a situation where some kind of commodity basket ETF and corporate/muni bonds outperform the PP for a short period.  Maybe, but I think being overpriced is much different than being in a bubble.  Funny the amount of mental fortitude it takes to weave yourself through an argument t...
by AdamA
Sat Feb 12, 2011 9:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne
Replies: 22
Views: 11061

Re: Mark Hulbert Writes of Harry Browne

It would take extremely unusual economic circumstances for PP to form a bubble.  I'm not really sure how it would even be possible.
by AdamA
Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?
Replies: 35
Views: 16520

Re: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?

"Why would the risk be less with GTU or Gold Money? Further, why does GLD have more risk then VTI?" GTU and Gold Money hold all of their gold in vaults that are regularly audited.  I don't think GLD does this, and I believe it may actually lend its gold out.  I'm not saying that GLD has mo...
by AdamA
Thu Feb 10, 2011 4:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My 3 variable portfolios
Replies: 2
Views: 3332

Re: My 3 variable portfolios

I dunno... Harry Browne's attitude (at least as it came across to me in Fail Safe Investing) was basically, "if you must speculate, try not lose your shirt, and don't expect to be successful."  I'm inclined to agree. I'm not sure why you think any of these portfolios will outperform your P...
by AdamA
Thu Feb 10, 2011 4:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?
Replies: 35
Views: 16520

Re: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?

Do you worry about counter-party risk with GLD and IAU? 

Have you ever considered GTU or even Goldmoney.com?
by AdamA
Thu Feb 10, 2011 11:33 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Comical
Replies: 1
Views: 2481

Comical

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 13074.html

Honestly, does anyone really believe that one has anything to do with the other?
by AdamA
Thu Feb 10, 2011 10:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?
Replies: 35
Views: 16520

Re: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?

Also, you find gold more appropriate for IRAs than stocks?  I was trying to weigh the same thing with the 28% rate compared to having to pay tax on dividends.  It's somewhat apples and oranges, but I'd like to hear your input on gold vs stocks being in a tax deferred account. I struggle with the sa...
by AdamA
Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?
Replies: 35
Views: 16520

Re: Like-minded PP Financial Advisors?

He said he was using mostly MLP's and preferred stock for income investors, so I'm guessing it was a little easier for him to explain the strategy to his clients than it would be to someone who has been watching Mad Money for the last 5 years.

Am I right?
by AdamA
Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 28
Views: 15599

Re: Inflation or Deflation?

http://www.voiceamerica.com/Show/Episod ... u-do/54791

Here's a great link with the arguments for both inflation and deflation. 

Playback time is about an hour.

30 minute interview with Ron Paul.  30 minute interview with Robert Prechter. 

Adam
by AdamA
Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Finally- My Portfolio Decision
Replies: 50
Views: 25789

Re: Finally- My Portfolio Decision


That's a strange article....Articles like that one always frustrate me...

If there's one thing I learned early in life, it's that nothing is ever correctly reported in a newspaper article
: )