OK, thanks!

Hi. I would like to subscribe to receive an email every time a new topic is posted in the Permanent Portfolio Discussion forum. Then, if I find the topic interesting I would click on the "Subscribe" link in the topic to receive the replies. This is how I would expect it to work. But the pr...

What happens to this allocation if the euro appreciates for example a 20% to the level where it was just 3 years ago? 3 of the 4 assets have currency exchange risk in this portfolio.

Just to say something in favor of the Euro PP, during the 18 years of the euro the portfolio has got a 6.36% annualized nominal return ( http://www.carterapermanente.es/evolucion-cartera-permanente/ ). So it has been doing its job during these years. As always past returns do not guarantee future re...

Interesting analysis on the bonds part for Europeans (in Spanish):

http://www.carterapermanente.es/bonos-europeos/

Its conclusion: stay with German bonds, or maybe Dutch, Finnish or Austrian bonds, and avoid the rest.

That's an interesting idea. I'm not sure Germany alone would be an appropriate source for EMU bonds as a whole, but maybe I could properly weight them. Brownehead did an interesting analysis on the performance of the European countries bonds in the event of a deflation (which we had during the rece...

OK, I understand that having 2 separate settings, one for the currency and another for the inflation could be too messy. But maybe you could just add a new "country" called "eurozone" with this configuration: - data only from 1999. I know the timeframe is short, but it's better t...

Hi Tyler, thanks a lot for the multi-country support. This is really great for us living outside the US. I have 2 suggestions for you: 1) Instead of splitting the analysis by "countries", I think it would be more useful if splitted by "currencies". I understand that the generaliz...

That sounds great, thanks!

Will you add support for other currencies like the euro?

Just having the end of the year conversion from the USD to the EUR (or any other currency) should be enough to generate all the assets values in EUR and evaluate the portfolios using assets in EUR.

This is a possible source of data for the German bonds: https://index.db.com/dbiqweb2/index/iboxx_euro_sovereign_germany_15_year It is in fact a index, and not exactly the 30-year bund, but could be used a reasonable substitute. Another option is to use the value that Brownehead has calculated in hi...

Hi Tyler, I join the congratulations, your work is really really useful for us. As I suggestion, if you could consider adding these assets/indexes I think they would be very useful to evaluate a Euro Permanent Portfolio and Euro Golden Butterfly: - MSCI EMU index (EUR) - 30 year German bond - MSCI S...

It looks like links on the original Harry Browne Investment Radio Show archives are broken: http://www.harrybrowne.org/Archives/Archives-investment.htm The mirror is also down: https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133409/http://crawlingroad.com/blog/harry-browne-permanent-portfolio-archives/ Is there...

Yes, but this is the direct impact of currency deprecation.  What I mean is that in the case of big currencies like the euro, a local high inflation will cause an increase in gold demand from europeans and an additional gold price increase.

You have to consider also that the USD monetary policy and the EUR monetary policy have been, and are, both very similar.  Basically zero-interest.  So if in the future we have a significant inflation in euros, we will probably see a significant inflation in USD also.  And in addition EUR is not a s...

Here you can see the performance of the Euro PP:  http://www.carterapermanente.es/evoluci ... ermanente/

It looks like it's working pretty well.

Maybe you could use the more global MSCI ACWI (which also includes emerging markets) instead of MSCI World (only developed markets).

In my opinion the closest one can get to HBPP from the eurozone is: - 25% eurozone stock index like MSCI EMU (--> whole market in your currency) - 25% German 30yr bund (--> the safest long term bond in your currency) - 25% high quality short term bonds - 25% gold The main drawback with respect to th...

There is something in between world stocks and Amsterdam stocks which is eurozone stocks with the MSCI EMU index.  You could use SPDR MSCI EMU UCITS ETF (IE00B910VR50). With regard to the German long bonds, another interesting ETF is Deka Deutsche Boerse EUROGOV Germany 10+ UCITS ETF (DE000ETFL219)....

Really nice graphs Tyler, thanks a lot! Since you ask for ideas/requests, we would like to see similar plots for the Euro PP described here:  http://www.carterapermanente.es/evolucion-cartera-permanente/ Its composition is: 25% MSCI EMU 25% Germany Gov 30y 25% gold 25% Germany Gov 1y The timeframe w...

There is a interesting post from the same Spanish blog linked by chalimac which analyses the performance of the different country bonds in the last years and according to the results the bonds that offer the best results are those from Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.  And E20Y has about a 30% ...

Archive.org is our friend:

https://web.archive.org/web/20120729164 ... eland.html

How would a transition from a Euro-denominated German bond to a Deutsche Mark-denominated German bond work, based on history?  I know Greece will just repudiate all Euro-denominated debt after exiting, but I can't see Germany doing that. In addition of this transition, in the event of an Euro break...

Have you applied the concept to the PP to derive a variation of it?  Which is the proposal?  % of each asset, fixed or variable percentages?, etc.

Could you please explain a bit more?  What would be a "risk-normalized" PP ?

Regarding the performance of a EU-PP portfolio, I have actually did some testing (which may be replicated in the future... or not!) from 1 July 2007 onwards. There is a Spanish blog devoted to the euro permanent portfolio that has an interesting page with the evolution since 1999: http://www.carter...