The point about QE is: PP will do surely do well in an uber money supply rise situation. Now what if money supply doesn't rise as it has? How about dumping the 25% in bonds? Did it really make sense to hold bonds with the US 10yr at 1.6%? 33% gold 33% cash 33% stocks If we assume that the next 30 y...

I think an international/global PP is a perfectly good idea. The main thing is you have to figure out if you want to hedge or ride currency movements of your home country. I believe that PP is too light on growth for a younger person and would tilt more to equities. I personally do mostly a classica...

Until further notice we are in prosperity mode...it is really no more complicated than that. By any objective measure the US economy is doing very well. Spend some time looking at data vs. reading opinions. It is a far more useful exercise and infinitely better use of your limited reading time. Head...

Well it is not difficult to figure out what bonds are likely to do how about the other three? And as a portfolio what about that? Are you going to toss the PP or tilt it? If toss what then, if tilt how?

These are far more relevant questions.

"These are the times that try men's souls." I think Thomas Paine must have been thinking about the gold position of the 3X portfolio. Yup it can. Who knows what will happen in 2017 but I was super glad I held my nose and rebalanced at band limits last year. Bought a bunch of ugly (UGLD) e...

Dumb question : how do you get an ITT performance with discrete treasury bonds and not a treasury fund ? i.e. Do you buy 10, 7 or 5 year treasuries and hold them to they mature or sell them earlier at a defined time ? Thanks. I have never done this, but for LTTs Harry Browne suggested buying 30-yea...

I like the idea behind bands instead of timeframes, so I would aim for narrower bands to capture more gains. This statement is demonstrably not true. It is true for a ranging market/set of instruments, it is not true for a trending market/set of instruments. Pretend for a moment that stocks are in ...

My own personal PP is completely separate from VWINX and outside cash. It is held in both IRA, one other brokerage account and savings account. I rebalance using 30 - 20 bands. I know that 35 - 25 bands may produce a slightly higher CAGR but my primary interest is portfolio stability with nominal a...

Highly likely I will pull the trigger on a rebalance tomorrow...but I thought I'd throw some real numbers out there to give folks a sense of the volatility and leverage variation possible. Looking at TNA (actually I posted my portfolio incorrectly. I split the stock portion between SPXL and TNA 50/5...

Transition probably during someone's 50s. Gradually or all at once.

stuper,

My guess is that you would have had that problem anyway and it was more a discipline vs. portfolio issue. (Not that I can cast stones at anyone...I think many people have or had that challenge including me.)

Honestly I would not advise a PP for a young person. It is too conservative to build wealth over a long period of time as compared to other alternatives. I also do not think it is good advice by us a little further along in years to say it is a good portfolio for them. For a full 50% of the portfoli...

Honestly I would not advise a PP for a young person. It is too conservative to build wealth over a long period of time as compared to other alternatives. I also do not think it is good advice by us a little further along in years to say it is a good portfolio for them. For a full 50% of the portfoli...

Jay, It is good you are looking at the numbers hard. I definitely recommend folks run 3x simulations which assuming you have the data is easy to do in Excel. You get a good feel for how bad the portfolio can behave as well as individual elements of it. One also understands very very quickly why it i...

Looking at the results I'm not sure why one would do this (just looking at what was posted)? The PP is one of the more stable popular ports that exist. If one can't even handle what the PP dishes out for volatility perhaps go more cash or just don't do a PP.

@Kbg, do you mind sharing what combo you run and how long you have been doing it? I personally use a no cash PP (retirement account, no cash needed for a while). I am currently a third in each of TLT, SPY and GLD. Given PP's poor performance in the last 3 and 5 years, I am expecting better returns ...

I'm not so sure about end of year if one is rebalancing with bands. Seems like extra cost for no real solid reason to me, particularly if there isn't much of a spread between elements of the port. If one is kinda close to a band rebalance, sure why not if it helps you sleep better.

There is so much disinformation on this subject and of course, it is all spun to reflect a certain view. If you do your own research and go to the historical documents you will find two things. 1. The issue was slavery. 2. The mechanism was a way to check the overwhelming vote count of cities which ...

I could go on about this topic forever. Humankind has probably been manipulated by false or half false news since the beginning of time. However, the methods are much more sophisticated now and much more tailored to you personally. In this respect it may be a little more dangerous because what you r...

I don't get too spun up about rebalancing...though for 3xETFs doing it is critical. I do somewhere between +\- 33-50% of the target (e.g. for 16.67 @ 11.11 or 8.33 and etc. on the upside). I'm more a believer in bands than time hacks for rebalancing. My basic method is to hit a band and then apply j...

Agree with the single country critiques. I don't see a problem with going global though instead of your own country. The major issue to resolve for a global PP is to hedge or not hedge the local currency which unfortunately could be a significant head or tailwind. If the U.K. Has a version of the US...

I debated rebalancing last night but I'm going to hold for a bit. We are in the sweet spot of the investments year right now for equity. With regard to going to zero the reverse occurs as well. I have some lots up 150%ish with a hold measured in months. Just keep an eye on the account balance not th...

Japan and the US have indicated they are ditching ZIRP. Only the Europeans are retaining it...for now. Even central bankers have figured out their theory is wrong and it's not really helping any longer.

What specific allocation are you looking at for both PP and total assets? Orthodoxy would suggest you are making predictions on an unknowable future about the U.K./U.S. But if you like the thought of global vs. Local then globalize the stock, bond and cash components. You still have the issue of you...

It will be fine...my initial foray was a year long drawdown from pretty much day 1 with well over 50% losses in UGLD. You have a big wad of cash and as I've mentioned several times, it is a near certainty that you will experience one asset going to zero over the course of a year. This is an aggressi...