Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...

I'm just getting into the world of PP. I've held random indexes but we had gone pretty high in cash in part due to the pandemic and in part due to wanting to buy a house until the market skyrocketed beyond our willingness to purchase. I read Craig's book and really loved the concept so we're going ...

Hello this is my first post in the forums. I really liked PP when I read the book and entered PP this year but I realized my portfolio is getting destroyed by the bonds allocation. Today I backtested PP with and without bonds (1/3 stocks , 1/3 gold , 1/3 cash). According to the portfoliovisualizer....

Sticking with Treasuries doesn't have to mean sticking with the LTT/MM barbell. Using ITT's (I use VGIT with ~5+ years of duration) instead of the barbell has historically provided essentially identical returns to the barbell with much less volatility. I'm not sure I agree with you on the much less...

There definitely is a mental attitude shift going on with me and this put selling. I really am liking not holding anything long term, and the puts I am holding can be rolled if they go against me, for credit, not like buy and hold where you are pretty much limited to watching the ups and downs and ...

All this negativity makes me think that those of us who are staying the course are about to have our day in the sun.

Someone mentioned Japan above, but I don't think PP works well in Japan. Poor stock performance and no yields on bonds. The only thing that performed for a Japan PP is gold. According to Portfolio Charts, the PP still held up OK in Japan. 30 year returns even starting in 1990 were 2% above inflatio...

And what if you're older? If you are on this board then a couple premises of the PP are that people are horrible at predicting and we do not know the future. I accept both in my investing approach. If you accept the above and are retired or nearing retirement then hopefully you are aware of safe wi...

This is absolutely correct, and it also means there could be significant issues lurking around the corner. The time when the PP will shine is not likely to be obvious to anyone ahead of time. Nor is it likely that it will 'catch up' to anyone's more aggressive choices (100% stocks, 60/40, or maybe ...

Don’t forget, anyone who’s been invested in any reasonable allocation during the past 40 years has done quite well. Sometimes I congratulate myself for my investing performance but it’s been more about right place, right time. This is absolutely correct, and it also means there could be significant...

FWIW, planning for a crash has proven to be much more expensive in terms of opportunity cost than actually suffering through one, at least for me. Peace of mind is important, no doubt, but everything has a cost. Glenn, I assume you're referring to your lost gains by being invested in the PP vs a mo...

FWIW, planning for a crash has proven to be much more expensive in terms of opportunity cost than actually suffering through one, at least for me. Peace of mind is important, no doubt, but everything has a cost. Glenn, I assume you're referring to your lost gains by being invested in the PP vs a mo...

I'm looking at a market crash ahead. Which asset in the PP will save us? Also, any non PP assets, possibly like TBT? I think there is a distinct possibility that no asset class will 'save' us. The PP will have to take it's medicine just like everyone else, just to a much lower extent. I'm just hopi...

Budd, tell us exactly when you entered the PP. I know you have said about 10 years, but i want to know the exact date.

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...

Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% difference. Fair enough. Inflation adjusted, the PP is down about 6% since Jan 2021. Pretty bad for this portfolio, but still far, far, far from a disaster. Coupled with the huge runup that we saw in 2019-2020, it's still ...

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:29 am 01/2020 - 2022 YTD

PP: 2.25%
BH 60/40: 8%

Where are you getting your numbers? According to portfoliovisualizer, i'm seeing that $10k invested in the PP Jan 2020 would be worth almost $11k today, inflation adjusted.

3. The chart quotes yields in US dollars. German bunds and Swiss Franc bonds have long posted negative nominal yields. With US inflation now running at over 7%, no one is making money on bonds based on solely on the coupon. However, that is not to say you can’t make money with them: In March 2020 a...

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...

Honestly, I think that I am a walking billboard for the real benefit of the PP, which is it allows you to live your life without thinking about or worrying about your investments. I have grown so indifferent to the markets that I will go months without looking at anything related to any of the PP a...