Vinny, This seems to talk about the polling skew that I was referring to: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters I saw a comment from a liberal that said it perfectly... “While they are loud, obnoxious and disgusting, like most bullie...

No offense taken so no apologies necessary. Yard signs, though, can be deceiving. One year I proclaimed that a certain mayoral candidate in the town next to me was going to win because that candidate had the vast majority of lawn signs. But I was shocked when he did not win. What Trump has proven i...

They are reporting that Trump is expected to go back to the White House tomorrow.

IMHO, this will only make Trump more credible when he talks about Covid since he actually experienced it.

Probably a net gain for republicans.

(A comment from https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/03/its-personal-trump-supporter-chokes-up-talking-about-president-outside-walter-reed-hospital/) The difference between me and a lot of my Democratic friends..... You see Trump’s arrogance, I see Trump’s confidence. You see Trump’s nat...

No offense taken so no apologies necessary. Yard signs, though, can be deceiving. One year I proclaimed that a certain mayoral candidate in the town next to me was going to win because that candidate had the vast majority of lawn signs. But I was shocked when he did not win. What Trump has proven i...

lol. What world are you guys living in? You actually think that people that WOULD HAVE voted for Trump 2 days ago will now suddenly either: 1. Not vote at all, or 2. Vote for Biden Seriously?! No offense, but you guys are delusional. I think you guys must think that there are a bunch of undecided v...

Either way this election goes it sucks for america...I don't think either party or candidate really has much to offer in terms or leadership or good ideas for the common American working person. At this point I can no longer stand the bullying and style of Trump. As I've said on multiple occasions ...

lol. What world are you guys living in? You actually think that people that WOULD HAVE voted for Trump 2 days ago will now suddenly either: 1. Not vote at all, or 2. Vote for Biden Seriously?! No offense, but you guys are delusional. I think you guys must think that there are a bunch of undecided v...

lol. What world are you guys living in? You actually think that people that WOULD HAVE voted for Trump 2 days ago will now suddenly either: 1. Not vote at all, or 2. Vote for Biden Seriously?! No offense, but you guys are delusional. I think you guys must think that there are a bunch of undecided vo...

- Scenario D: World reserve currency shift Can recall listening to Dalio about that. Actually, what sort of implication have this shift on PP - it might be over simplified view of things, but is that about (in the very essence of it) the negative correlation of the world reserve currency (USD as of...

Not to rock the boat even further… But many of us pretty much know that the Permanent Portfolio isn’t perfect... and isn’t REALLY “Permanent”. There have been many posts about what it would take to break it. If it turns out that mixing peanut butter and windex makes gold… everyone around here would ...

An outstanding post on top of a bunch of other great ones of late ahrunforthehills. Thanks! Taken as a whole your comments and those of mathjak107 here reflect approaches that are deeply informed by Browne’s work while responding to realities he’d never encountered. I know some view any departure f...

Exactly. It's like people put Browne on a pedestal because he died. As a result, his investment advice FROM A SINGLE MOMENT IN TIME is given more weight than it deserves... Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago. Has anything really changed? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/fo...

Well at least historically both bonds and stocks become correlated and go down as interest rates are rising...so 50% of your PP is not going to be doing well. Gold, who knows. It may help, it may not help. So that leaves cash. All of this is also somewhat influenced by how interest rates go up...so...

Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago. Has anything really changed? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1096&p=11740&hilit=crystal+ball#p11740 Ugh. Let’s try this again... Would you pay the same amount of money for hurricane insurance in Fl...

I am one third inflation model Two thirds conventional. Also have lots of cash going in all the time Do these totals look about right? 25% Equities 17% Gold/Commodities 58% Fixed Income based off of: 25.33% Equities 12.67% Gold 4.33% Commodities 16.67% Ultra Short Bond Fund 11.33% 1-3 Year Treasury...

so we still have the conflict between the ray dalio all weather portfolio which made no changes and is not only 40% long term treasuries but also 15% intermediate treasuries for a whopping 55% in bonds vs the fact bridgewater dumped TLT AND DALIO SEES NO POINT IN OWNING LONG TERM BONDS or even the ...

To be honest, I definitely can't drink alcohol in this economic environment. My logic says to not gamble and distance myself from LTT for long-term safety. BUT... I look at charts like this that show how many people are betting that rates have nowhere to go but up, and the contrarian in me would bet...

Mathjak makes a really good point. People like to say “inflation” and “deflation” as an all-or-nothing proposition. Different sectors have different rates across the board. Each person is impacted by those factors differently. Not to mention how hedonics and geometric weighting skew it further. Afte...

given a choice between deflation and inflation , the fed would shift the odds greatly over to inflation . we are already on an inflationary path as far as the fed goes that is really the crux of the quandary.. so much is going on that is inflationary . remember that steady interest rate is already ...

given a choice between deflation and inflation , the fed would shift the odds greatly over to inflation . we are already on an inflationary path as far as the fed goes that is really the crux of the quandary.. so much is going on that is inflationary . remember that steady interest rate is already ...

I think the answer to your question depends on what your objectives are and if you plan on adhering to the PP framework. If safety is your concern, then I think it is what it is and you dial down on LTTs and reallocate to cash primarily and then stocks/gold. If return is your concern, then I think ...

Since I still have a chunk of TLT that's in the red I'm hoping for one last flight-to-safety myself so I can get out. I’m on the other side... I have a chuck of TLT in a taxable account that I hate to pay the built up gains unless I am 1000% sure. Rates could go up, they could go down, but that che...

They just didn’t respond much as one would expect with the sell off in equities .... More fed action buying bonds to lower rates and create liquidity in the market is quite inflationary in the longer term and is being looked at as such. You have a guaranteed loss with a 1.40% yield and the fed sayi...

lately the crashes have been met with margin call selling in treasuries and gold and they fall too as investors sell to cover their equity margin calls . it seems we have a whole different investing world with issues and events harry never imagined I know, right? The world seems just so leveraged u...