Search found 2478 matches

by craigr
Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP FORUM STAYING -- details here
Replies: 38
Views: 27316

Re: PP FORUM STAYING -- details here

Thanks for the offers. If anyone wanted to donate for me, please send it to your local Meals on Wheels charity to help an elderly or other homebound person have a nice meal.
by craigr
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP FORUM STAYING -- details here
Replies: 38
Views: 27316

PP FORUM STAYING -- details here

Here's the update on the forum.

Xan has offered to host the site going forward. It will be the same message DB we have here perhaps minus a couple days as the DB transitions over to the new host. The domain will be the same, etc.

Stand by for more details.

-- Craig
by craigr
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

Here's the update.

Xan has offered to host the site going forward. It will be the same message DB we have here perhaps minus a couple days as the DB transitions over to the new host. The domain will be the same, etc.

Stand by for more details.

-- Craig
by craigr
Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

Thanks for the kind words. We are working on some options and will update soon. Have a good new year.
by craigr
Thu Dec 29, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

Yes certainly Mike deserves a ton of credit. We will be working to get in contact and sort this all out.
by craigr
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY

Hi All, Yep, we hit another limit on the server. It is resolved temporarily, but may happen again in the next month. Unfortunately, I do not have the time now to manage a forum. The forum will be going way at the next billing cycle. I have not been able to discuss with Tex what he wants to do with t...
by craigr
Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Craig--heard about the earthquake....
Replies: 3
Views: 2692

Re: Craig--heard about the earthquake....

Benko wrote:I hope all is ok.
We were rocking and rolling, but all is well here. Bad damage elsewhere though.
by craigr
Sun Oct 30, 2016 7:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Election and Forum
Replies: 1
Views: 2200

Election and Forum

Everyone, The election in the U.S. is a major stress point for the entire country. Please do not come into the forum and take it out on people. If you feel stressed out, put the keyboard away and go enjoy your friends and family and don't talk about politics. This thing will be over in a week. Try t...
by craigr
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification. Certainly, a widely diversified portfolio like the Permanent Portfolio is way better in those cases than one just using stocks/bonds which is what many would recommend....
by craigr
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification. https://3a05ty2ohkvc1zboze4eczal-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/BondHits1.jpg Certainly, a widely diversified portfolio like the Permanent Portfolio...
by craigr
Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

But calculate it for .75%, .5% and .25% yields and it still holds up because the duration is also increasing to make up for the "missing" yields, i.e. it just becomes more like a zero coupon bond. At 0% nominal yields it will definitely be objectively questionable as to any future capital gains. Bu...
by craigr
Sun Oct 16, 2016 4:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

I understand this immensely. But at 1% or lower long bonds provide little insurance. It would be better to greatly reduce duration as you suggest, or go to cash and look to just ride things out with the other assets. How do you figure that? The convexity will increase so that it's still capable of ...
by craigr
Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

People forgot all too easily that the driver of the PP is Prosperity... everything else are HEDGES. I understand this immensely. But at 1% or lower long bonds provide little insurance. It would be better to greatly reduce duration as you suggest, or go to cash and look to just ride things out with ...
by craigr
Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

I need to invest a rather substantial (for me) amount of money, I am partially invested in a euro PP, but just cannot get myself to fully invest in it, not when the german 20year etf is yielding 0.35%, that's just insanity, almost zero upside left, not to speak about stocks which are also at valuat...
by craigr
Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Pizza Drones
Replies: 20
Views: 15984

Re: Pizza Drones

That's all in Kill Decision, by Daniel Suarez. Well, his were drones with shotgun shells that crashed into you to set them off, not explosives. His other books (Daemon and Freedom) have all kinds of crazy technology in them too. He consults for the Pentagon. Wired For War by PW Singer is another go...
by craigr
Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Pizza Drones
Replies: 20
Views: 15984

Re: Pizza Drones

This is the kind of thing you see in futuristic science fiction movies but it looks like the future has come to New Zealand. Craig, have you tried this yet? No that's not near me yet, thankfully! I'm not sure if this will work in the U.S.A. Given the way we've been using drone technology in the mid...
by craigr
Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Permanent Homestead (a/k/a Ditching Life in the City)
Replies: 18
Views: 7840

Re: The Permanent Homestead (a/k/a Ditching Life in the City)

Fascinating story. Thanks for sharing it. You're right though about your body. Over time you must adapt to what it can and can't do. There are things I used to love doing, but just gave them up due to injury risk as I've gotten older. FWIW, I find pumping iron has been the best thing I've done to fi...
by craigr
Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: can the 30 year bond stay at this (high) level
Replies: 27
Views: 15975

Re: can the 30 year bond stay at this (high) level

I have been hearing since at least 2008 how LTT are horrible and nobody should own them. Instead people were advised to buy short-term bonds because interest rates would be going up "any day now." In fact, I have heard LTT bonds are horrible to own for probably 20 years if I think back far enough. O...
by craigr
Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Lessons From Switzerland's One-Day, 18 Percent Currency Rise
Replies: 37
Views: 21833

Re: Lessons From Switzerland's One-Day, 18 Percent Currency Rise

Swiss PP performance in first half of 2016: - The SPI (stock index) is down 3.9%. - The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 30.6%. - A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is up 23%. - Cash is 0%. A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 12.4% profit year to date. The annualized YTD profit is...
by craigr
Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
Replies: 67
Views: 30657

Re: NEW FORUM HOST

The registrar shows suspended domain again. I'm trying to resolve it one more time. The DNS team at the hosting provider is now involved. It's very frustrating, but it is being fixed.
by craigr
Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
Replies: 67
Views: 30657

Re: NEW FORUM HOST

Yes there was an error at the DNS registrar that caused it to go inactive. I have fixed it and now it will propagate again. Hopefully this will be the last of the issues transferring everything.
by craigr
Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Brexit
Replies: 38
Views: 19295

Re: Brexit

How does everyone think this will play out for the PP? I don't know how it will play out short-term for the PP so it's steady as she goes. But it may be a good opportunity for a variable portfolio bullish bet on the British economy going forward. The EU was a huge anchor around Britain's neck and s...
by craigr
Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
Replies: 67
Views: 30657

Re: NEW FORUM HOST

We aren't going back! It took me 2+ days to rebuild everything from SMF's last crash. I don't blame SMF, it was the old hosting provider that was a large part of the problem. But I had problems with SMF in the past (especially with plug-ins and upgrades) and just wanted to do something new that had ...
by craigr
Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: I'm a Tube Amp Convert
Replies: 17
Views: 8473

Re: I'm a Tube Amp Convert

Best write-up on cables was an old post from John Dunlavy of Dunlavy Audio Labs: http://www.verber.com/mark/ce/cables.html Oh yes, we have heard of golden-eared audiophiles who claim to be able to consistently identify huge, audible differences between cables. But when these experts have visited our...
by craigr
Tue Jun 21, 2016 5:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Japan -- Doomed or Not Doomed?
Replies: 23
Views: 8952

Re: Japan -- Doomed or Not Doomed?

Japan has existed as unique people and culture for over a millennia. They are not going to vanish just because some economists think they aren't having enough kids to grow GDP to their liking. I recommend everyone visit Japan and see their cities, the people, and the unflappable spirit of the countr...