Search found 106 matches

by Tom
Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 44392

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Sorry, yeah it's blowing away S&P YTD by a long shot.  I was looking at my chart since inception and that is now beating S&P by a slight margin
by Tom
Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 44392

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

PP is now beating S&P YTD.  S&P has lost almost 11% just in the month of January.  The PP is starting to show how in more volatile environments it does in fact work as expected and provide protection.  TLT is up to 127.10, about $10 from where it had previously settled and my gold ETF (PHYS)...
by Tom
Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HBPP component predictions for 2016
Replies: 16
Views: 10912

Re: HBPP component predictions for 2016

So far my pick, which was against my gut, of bonds as the best performing asset is a pretty good one.  They're picking up a lot of slack.  I'm feeling pretty good about the PP right about now, with the S&P down around 7.71% so far this year and the PP slightly up! It seems that it gains slow and...
by Tom
Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HBPP component predictions for 2016
Replies: 16
Views: 10912

Re: HBPP component predictions for 2016

My gut says gold, which is precisely whey I'm going to not say gold and go with bonds.  Bonds is what I'm most terrified about tanking - and is therefore most likely to do well.  Things tend to never turn out in the way that would make sense.
by Tom
Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rate Hike
Replies: 6
Views: 3022

Rate Hike

Fed released decision to raise rates .25.  Stocks, bonds and gold are all up.  We'll see what pans out longer term.  So far, seems the market already built in the loses prior to the decision.
by Tom
Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Depressed
Replies: 39
Views: 17703

Re: Depressed

Isn't that the premise of the PP? Yes.  If you're having a rough time with this year's performance, just keep in mind that every prior down year has been followed by a double-digit (positive) year. I second this.  It seems to me that next year could be a volatile one - and that could be good for th...
by Tom
Fri Oct 16, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is once again positive YTD
Replies: 202
Views: 67156

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

I'm down 1.13% still  >:(  I was going to ask how that's possible, but I added a substantial amount on 1/12 when TLT was up to $131 from $125.92 at the start of the year.  I'm guessing that's what did it.
by Tom
Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank
Replies: 19
Views: 14835

Re: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank

I'm all set up with my debit and credit card and have all my bills switched over to this account now.  Only thing I'm waiting on is my wife's credit card and our checks.  But so far so good - has really simplified things already and I haven't noticed a difference from using a regular bank.
by Tom
Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP End of Year Predictions
Replies: 6
Views: 3228

Re: PP End of Year Predictions

We're not really going to all of this trouble for a 1-2% gain, are we? You could make a prediction, use a different strategy or say nothing you know.  It's not that much trouble and the market hasn't been great as a whole this year, not just the PP and it's one freaking year.  This thread isn't mea...
by Tom
Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP End of Year Predictions
Replies: 6
Views: 3228

PP End of Year Predictions

We have two and a half months left to the year.  Any predictions on where the PP will stand come end of year?

I'm going to stick my neck out and optimistically gamble that after a lackluster and then somewhat bumpy year it will still end up slightly positive in the 1-2% range.
by Tom
Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The value of physical gold
Replies: 119
Views: 39075

Re: The value of physical gold

I Shrugged wrote: Does every thread have to devolve into the same debate by the same people?
Apparently.
by Tom
Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tighter Rebalancing Bands For Low-Return Environment?
Replies: 9
Views: 4672

Re: Tighter Rebalancing Bands For Low-Return Environment?

I think everyone on here is pretty much in agreement that we are in a low-return environment and may be so for at least another several years going forward. Bonds and stocks could both move up from these levels but it's harder for them to make a major move, one that would push them up to 35% of a p...
by Tom
Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The value of physical gold
Replies: 119
Views: 39075

Re: The value of physical gold

anyone want to make a friendly bet that it is once again equity's that leads the charge out of this funk ? [/quote] Long term I think you're probably right.  But I think there's also a decent chance you'll see a gigantic drop in equities first.  If you held stocks through 2008 saying they'd recover ...
by Tom
Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The value of physical gold
Replies: 119
Views: 39075

Re: The value of physical gold

TLT is also up a nice bit today.  Mathjak is right - it doesn't mean this isn't a blip that will reverse in a few days.  But I stick to my original theory - what we're seeing is the market having no clue which direction it's going in.  It will eventually pick and the asset that will do well will shi...
by Tom
Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

not all of us are willing to bet so heavy that the sky is falling . I'm assuming this statement is intended to imply that owning gold is a bet on the sky falling.  Why do you think all the central banks of the world still have so much gold? central banks hold lots of various things and change from ...
by Tom
Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

mathjak107 wrote:
not all of us are willing to bet so heavy that the sky is falling .
I'm assuming this statement is intended to imply that owning gold is a bet on the sky falling.  Why do you think all the central banks of the world still have so much gold?
by Tom
Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak's Market Calls
Replies: 150
Views: 50314

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

well note the title on the thread . tom asked me to post the portfolio i use and the changes as i make them . it wasn't about anything else . Yep, that's the game.  Whatever you're using, funds or not.  Will be interesting to see.  The key is to properly track when and how much you by and sell in a...
by Tom
Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak's Market Calls
Replies: 150
Views: 50314

Mathjak's Market Calls

Let's do an experiment.  Since Mathjak seems to know the appropriate mix of assets to hold at all times and the correct times to get in and out of them, let's track it!  Mathjak, please post your current allocation pick and let us know when it changes.  We'll track it against the PP.  Only what's sa...
by Tom
Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

in the short term golds reaction to our moderate inflation is anyone guess , could be up could be down . but the long term numbers over 40 years say that trying to protect against 40 years of inflation could have been better in any other asset . so as john templeton stated so well , the most expens...
by Tom
Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

personally i can't see betting my money on a plan that never changes with the times and the bigger picture and has demonstrated that long term there is no value in holding the remote flier longer then you have to . but it is your money , your choices  to do as you see fit . That's because you clear...
by Tom
Thu Sep 24, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Stocks down 6.37% YTD today, PP down 3.36% with treasuries rallying.  I would guess there's a good chance that by end of year stocks and the PP will be within striking distance of each other in either direction, but the PP never saw a 10% correction where you had to wonder where the bottom would be...
by Tom
Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

You know what perversely gives me the most pleasure?  Days like today, with gold and TLT up, and stocks down.  So when I hear the Wall Street numbers on the radio or TV, I feel like I am in a secret club that isn't affected by downturns in stocks since that is nearly 100% of the focus of the media....
by Tom
Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 88299

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Stocks down 6.37% YTD today, PP down 3.36% with treasuries rallying.  I would guess there's a good chance that by end of year stocks and the PP will be within striking distance of each other in either direction, but the PP never saw a 10% correction where you had to wonder where the bottom would be....
by Tom
Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:18 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank
Replies: 19
Views: 14835

Re: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank

So you're going to use Fidelity's cash management account?  I'm curious to see how you like it.  I've been using an online bank for convenience and the relatively high interest rate on savings.  And to avoid fees - I got thoroughly fed up with Chase on that score. Keeping an account at a brick and ...
by Tom
Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank
Replies: 19
Views: 14835

Re: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank

- If your cash isn't safe at Fidelity, it's not safe anywhere, so nothing wrong there. - I have looked into the Vanguard debit card, but even bogleheads aren't that excited about it. They don't like the way the statements look. Of course, the money is managed fine. - I use a Fidelity American Expre...