Search found 176 matches

by Thomas Hoog
Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 114298

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Marc's real quest is: Is there a portfolio (VP) which "make a large fortune from investments". Answer: yes, but I haven't met it (yet) I think bitcoins are a great speculation. High risk, but very high potential reward also. I've integrated them into my Variable Portfolio, and am very hap...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Mar 22, 2013 4:25 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Forum performance entry ?
Replies: 2
Views: 1203

Forum performance entry ?

Would it be an idea to have a sperate entry for performance. There are a lot of differences in implementing HB permanent or semi permanent or VP's around the world. A separate forum entry would be much easier to track those different portfolio's
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Mar 22, 2013 4:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 29092

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

You have to remember that those of us on here (and Bogleheads, Fatwallet, Retire-Early, etc) are in a distinctly small minority when it comes to how much we think over and analyze our investment situations. Best guess: memberlist x 2 x 4 (boogleheads etc..)= 6000 = 0,0001% of the world population W...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 29092

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

There have been several useful threads on this topic.  I was strongly considering trying this out with a portion of VP, but I was dissuaded by two things.  First, keeping up with the required calculations is kind of a pain, and for most of us it violates Rule #1:  put your major effort into your ca...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 29092

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

rickb wrote: Faber has written about using Ivy timing for the HB PP, see http://www.mebanefaber.com/2010/10/28/t ... bernstein/ .
Thanks, I have already found that post. That's one of the reason I don't use cash in the allocation.
I will post the results
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 29092

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

No one ? I will start this VP, some kind of Ivy timing strategy, however with the HB assets (although a bit modified). Assets will be Stocks (VT), Gold (IAU), REIT (in €), LT Bonds (€). Sell/Buy signals will be the 200 days SMA (simple moving average) on a montly base. Not invested money wil be park...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: How important is it for gold ETF to be denominated in my local currency?
Replies: 7
Views: 5929

Re: How important is it for gold ETF to be denominated in my local currency?

Maybe, it seems second best to physical gold at home, however it is in $ en cost a bit more then ETF commission rate of 0.8% and a custody charge of 0.12% per annum for gold http://www.bullionvault.com/ In europa we have the seems problem, only ZGLD is in € so I have some physical, 2 ETF en in the a...
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Meeting In Person
Replies: 69
Views: 32210

Re: Meeting In Person

Doorn, The Netherlands
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Mar 07, 2013 6:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Challenge Buffet
Replies: 16
Views: 7390

Re: Challenge Buffet

I wonder what Warren Buffett would think of the long bonds in the context of the pp, though. That is, I wonder what he thinks of the pp. I think he's ok with index funds for the average investor, and by average I really mean most of us. I thought this thread was going to be about a TV show about co...
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Challenge Buffet
Replies: 16
Views: 7390

Challenge Buffet

AMSTERDAM (Belegger.nl) - Investor Warren Buffet is despite the price increase is still positive on equities and stock market expert stated still shares. Shares now offer a good value and are currently cheaper than other investments. This allows Buffett in an interview with CNBC. Buffett buys shares...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 27, 2013 6:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 255152

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

sorry, misinterpretation I have used your "rangorder", so 19 % CAGR means it belongs to the top 19% on CAGR. The actual CAGR is stated somewhere in earlier posts. The objective is  a decrease in CAGR en increase in safety (in terms of StD en MAXDD). Your strategy on  ratio VP and PP seems ...
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 255152

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

You could plan your financial life with it. The changeover is rather smooth. Age     Invest period           Style         Cash LT Bonds   Gold     Stocks 20 - 50 > 30 years           aggressive   10       30           20       40 50 - 70 10 / 30 years       equable         10       40           20 ...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 255152

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

I have also been playing around (great data) with set of allocations with round figures 0, 10, 20 etc. and the 40 years periode and the 30 years period. In the 30 years period the HP allocation performs less compared to the 40 years period. However the final conclusion was a 10 % (cash), 20 % (Gold...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 114298

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

never been so lucky
best performer is Diageo, which I bought because they sell whisky
Seems without risk for me, if they went bankrupt, I should get some bottle's out of their stock as shareholder.
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 20, 2013 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 114298

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

I think you just prove HB's: Rule #1: Your career provides your wealth. You most likely will make far more money from your business or profession than from your investments. Only very rarely does someone make a large fortune from investments. Marc's real quest is: Is there a portfolio (VP) which &qu...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 255152

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

I have also been playing around (great data) with set of allocations with round figures 0, 10, 20 etc. and the 40 years periode and the 30 years period. In the 30 years period the HP allocation performs less compared to the 40 years period. However the final conclusion was a 10 % (cash), 20 % (Gold)...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The "Permanent Boglehead Portfolio"
Replies: 8
Views: 6616

Re: The "Permanent Boglehead Portfolio"

It looks very like my own allocation; I use 40 % stocks & 30 % Bonds Backtesting (simba) P1: HP PP P2: 40 % stocks, 30 % Bonds, 20 % Gold, 10 % Cash P3: 30 % stocks, 40 % Bonds, 20 % Gold, 10 % Cash P1 P2 P3 Average 9,46% 10,18% 9,97% Std. Dev. 7,79% 8,62% 7,94% Down SD 2,53% 3,33% 2,64% Up SD 6...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Riskvalue
Replies: 0
Views: 1310

Riskvalue

I have made a small PP-like portfolio for my wife at a different broker Allocation: Stocks 40%, Bonds 30 %, Gold 20 %, Cash 10 %. This broker provides a riskvalue of the portfolio using: To calculate the risk value of the portfolio xxBank uses the following system. The performance of your current po...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:54 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 11409

Re: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation

I think I agree with K9 There is not such a thing like equity investment in your domestic country. I could buy the AEX index (Netherlands), but the componies have almost nothing to do with the local economic situation. 80 % of their revenues are global. BMW sells more cars in China then in Germany a...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: My Mistakes in gold allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 2267

Re: My Mistakes in gold allocation

There is no ideal world
My compromise:
SPDR Gold, ZKB Gold EFT (EUR), ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust ETF (SGOL), about 70 %
Boullion vault, about 20 %, that's really nice, altough I really don't know how secure it is.
Coins, about 10 %
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 11409

Re: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation

You are from Portugal, that's still Europa, so you can buy the Europa Stocks (in EUR)
Isreal is definitly no Europa Country with their own currency (Shekel ??)
by Thomas Hoog
Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 11409

Re: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation

Nice question I'm afraid that a Middle East index (if exist) is mostly a oil based index, which will be not very diversed. Why no be very practical and just take a World stock index (DM+EM) maybe in your own currency, otherwise dollars. I really don't know if the world index is contrair to Israel Bo...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withholding tax in European PP
Replies: 9
Views: 5154

Re: Withholding tax in European PP

Thomas Hoog, another option which is not common for here: Amundi Funds Index Equity Euro – AE what do you think about this in terms of performance, tax, dividends, and fees ? Regards. I don't know exactly the difference, but it seems this one is more actieve managed in compare with Amundi ETF MSCI ...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withholding tax in European PP
Replies: 9
Views: 5154

Re: Withholding tax in European PP

Dutch tax on dividends of 15% is not a problem. You can ask it back in your Tax appliance There is no one tracker that is perfect. You want: a broad EUR stock tracker non including UK no dividend (accumulate) (tracker (acc) lowest TER ratio A quick scan: http://www.indexvolger.nl/ Aandelen: db x-tra...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Public investment strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 4476

Re: Public investment strategies

I disagree They are 2 different worlds Investing & modern portfolio strategy is based on the assumption that every piece of news is reflected in the value of the concerning assets. Trading fills the gape between actual news and the value. They don't have a strategy so there is nothing to post on...