Search found 1365 matches
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:30 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
InsuranceGuy, There is something I noticed in both of our results that is very intriguing to me. With a PP+Top-2-MOM strategy, the maximum single year drawdown increases as you increase the percentage allocated to the Top 2. This is what I would expect. However, with a PP+SCV+Top-2-MOM strategy,...
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 4:20 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
InsuranceGuy, Very nice spreadsheet. Thank you for sharing that. Much more elegant than my own. My returns are slightly lower than yours because, I think, I used "cash/money market" returns for cash rather than "short term treasuries". Overall my results are consistent with y...
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 1:44 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
Seems like a free lunch. The chart below shows the rolling 5-year average real returns for the two portfolios. Don't be fooled. It's an artifact of using low sample data. If you only sample once a year as with annual returns, you miss the sequence of downside risk in-between. In all cases, mome...
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 12:51 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
The percentage of the time in the Top 2 for each asset was as follows: Large Cap Blend 26.1% Small Cap Value 28.4% Long Term Treasuries 17.0% Gold 18.2% Cash/Money Market 10.2% LCB and SCV were in the Top 2 together 34% of the time. ...
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 12:12 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
Here are the real inflation-adjusted CAGRs and worst year returns for different percentages of the Base portfolio (5x20 golden butterfly) plus remainder in the Top 2 assets from the previous year, trading once per year and backtested using annual returns only. Notice that at 30% Base plus 35% each ...
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:56 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
I downloaded annual returns from portfoliovisualizer.com to create my own backtesting spreadsheet for the PP+SCV+Top-2-MOM strategy. The numbers work out a bit differently from InsuranceGuy's but generally the same. It seems like much of the outperformance was in the 1970s when gold was going craz...
- Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:27 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
InsuranceGuy, I have some questions about your HB+SCV+top 2 MOM strategy. Let's say that stocks do good one year, better than everything else. That means the next year you would have 76% of your portfolio in stocks (38% in large cap, 38% in small cap value) with only 8% long bonds, 8% gold, and 8...
- Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:34 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
InsuranceGuy, I have some questions about your HB+SCV+top 2 MOM strategy. Let's say that stocks do good one year, better than everything else. That means the next year you would have 76% of your portfolio in stocks (38% in large cap, 38% in small cap value) with only 8% long bonds, 8% gold, and 8%...
- Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:22 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 117
- Views: 48247
Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
This strategy to me is very intriguing. I almost find it to sound too good to be true. If I'm reading this right, you're saying that we might get a 2 - 3 % increase in real CAGR over the HBPP and keep the maximum single year drawdown at about the same level or even lower. Is that correct? Am I r...
- Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:13 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Turbo Tax is a mixed blessing
- Replies: 8
- Views: 2495
Re: Turbo Tax is a mixed blessing
I've used TaxAct online for several years and have been very happy with it.
- Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:56 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
- Replies: 16
- Views: 7993
Re: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
The estate tax exemption is $10.9 million per couple. I'm pretty sure we'll be under that, so I don't see what we have to fear from the Revenuers.
I believe once the gold passes to our heirs, then they get a stepped up tax basis to the current price per ounce of gold in effect at that time.
I believe once the gold passes to our heirs, then they get a stepped up tax basis to the current price per ounce of gold in effect at that time.
- Wed Mar 02, 2016 5:50 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I'm noticing a lack of threads about how terrible the PP is
- Replies: 24
- Views: 11603
Re: I'm noticing a lack of threads about how terrible the PP is
This may come as a shock, but gold is really the only thing that differentiates the PP from a boglehead portfolio.dragoncar wrote:These days, yesReub wrote: So is the PP only as good as its gold component?
- Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:14 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
- Replies: 16
- Views: 7993
Re: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
It will be sitting in the bank safe deposit box waiting to pass to our heirs via our wills.Reub wrote: Who will take care of your physical gold when you are 90 and possibly in a nursing home?
- Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:46 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
- Replies: 16
- Views: 7993
Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
My wife will be 60 before too long. Her Roth IRA is invested as a 4x25 HBPP, but of course the gold is in an ETF. One of my goals is to increase our amount of physical gold, because most of our gold is in ETFs in our Roth IRAs and in my 401k. I'm thinking that when she hits 60, maybe we should se...
- Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:57 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Not many options in company's 401(k) plan
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3278
Re: Not many options in company's 401(k) plan
With a lot of these crummy 401k plans, the best you can do is try to minimize fees and minimize portfolio management. As a first cut, I would look at the funds available and see what is available with a low expense ratio (hopefully less than 0.2%) and what is available as passive funds (not activel...
- Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:10 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative to PP
- Replies: 9
- Views: 5874
Re: Alternative to PP
Tyler, You mentioned that much of the emerging markets great performance was prior to 1994. I think a really good addition to your charts, which would help see such trends over time, would be a chart with the portfolio real CAGR on the y-axis and years on the x-axis. It would have say three lines ...
- Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:29 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown
- Replies: 9
- Views: 5190
Re: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown
How frequently are you checking and trading? Weekly? Monthly? Quarterly? Yearly?
- Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:03 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative to PP
- Replies: 9
- Views: 5874
Alternative to PP
I'm thinking about getting a bit more aggressive with my overall portfolio, as I still have about 20 years to retirement. I've been playing with various ideas involving higher allocations to stocks over at portfoliocharts.com. I know it may not be the best time to get heavier into stocks, so maybe...
- Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Collective Investment Trusts
- Replies: 1
- Views: 887
Collective Investment Trusts
I need to make a decision for my 401k plan. There is an S&P500 index fund available called the Vanguard Employee Benefit Index Fund, and it has a super low expense ratio of 0.01%. Unfortunately, it is actually a collective investment trust. I've read some disparaging comments about such trust...
- Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:01 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Thoughts on gay rights?
- Replies: 210
- Views: 72814
Re: Thoughts on gay rights?
I believe that a lot of homosexuals are born that way They are ALL born that way. The notion that it is somehow a choice is a myth perpetuated by the church. i am not sure that is true..... it is a premise taken on to strengthen the case for rights, but biology being what it is, i suspect the rea...
- Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:15 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43486
Re: Portfolio Charts
Tyler, Would there be any chance of adding another asset to your charts: zero-coupon long term treasury bonds (e.g., EDV or ZROZ)? You would probably have to do some kind of synthetic calculation to get older data. I'm not certain on the details of such a calculation, but it may not be very diffi...
- Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Question for Melveyr
- Replies: 81
- Views: 42493
Re: Question for Melveyr
Bill Bernstein's book "Deep Risk", addresses your issue about gold. We talked about it here: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/permanent-portfolio-discussion/considering-pp-have-questions/msg83163/#msg83163 My conclusion from Deep Risk was that gold doesn't really respond very well to...
- Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:27 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Question for Melveyr
- Replies: 81
- Views: 42493
Re: Question for Melveyr
Melveyr, Good to hear from you again. The way I look at the gold allocation in the PP is that about half of the allocation makes sense in terms of providing a nice, non-correlated asset that can help to counterbalance the portfolio, and provide some rebalancing opportunities, when both stocks/bonds...
- Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:45 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 164625
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
I like the Mt. Everest analogy. I also like the 35% rebalance band, which keeps me from having to rely on skill and fortitude. Here's a question that's been discussed before. If long bond yields are below a certain percentage (say X percent) and we hit a 15/35 rebalance band on any asset, instead o...
- Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:43 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 164625
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Also, what would TLT be at if the long bond rate were at 1%?