Search found 180 matches

by ozzy
Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
Replies: 13
Views: 5963

Re: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU

I've been using IAU for years, its fine in my opinion.

Warning – get ready for a deluge of gold bugs telling you to only own physical.  :P
by ozzy
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What do you think of Doug Casey? Is he legit?
Replies: 8
Views: 7366

Re: What do you think of Doug Casey? Is he legit?

I like Doug Casey, but all these doom and gloom guys do is preach the same thing year after year.  And even a broken clock is right twice a day.  I would not take any investment advice from him, although I agree with most of his ideology.  I bought his book Totally Incorrect and enjoyed it.  Inciden...
by ozzy
Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Total Market Stocks vs. Diverse Mix
Replies: 15
Views: 10682

Re: Total Market Stocks vs. Diverse Mix

Sam, I totally agree with all your points.  My own research shows much better performance and diversification with the inclusion of Small/Midcaps.  But the expense ratio on RSP is a whopping 0.40%!  Yikes! Why not use individual Small/Midcap ETFs instead?  For example, replace RSP with IJR, IJH, VTI...
by ozzy
Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ozzy's juicy portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 2554

Re: Ozzy's juicy portfolio

Thanks Tyler.
by ozzy
Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ozzy's juicy portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 2554

Re: Ozzy's juicy portfolio

Hi rickb, Thanks for the feedback.  I'm personally comfortable with my heavy dose of iShares.  That said, I certainly have no problem with your suggestion of using similar funds.  Depending on your broker, various funds are commission-free, so that needs to be considered too, especially if you're in...
by ozzy
Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:16 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Suffers Record Outflows
Replies: 30
Views: 16299

Re: TLT Suffers Record Outflows

And now people are piling back into TLT.  I guess it just goes to show its all noise.  Just stick to one passive portfolio allocation and ignore all the hype. "Without the Federal Reserve pulling the trigger on an interest rate hike, overseas fixed-income investors have piled into more attractive U....
by ozzy
Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Total Market Stocks vs. Diverse Mix
Replies: 15
Views: 10682

Re: Total Market Stocks vs. Diverse Mix

Mathjak- I totally agree that Small/Midcap increase long-term performance.  Which is why I use them in my JuicyPP:  http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html Tyler, PointedStick- Here's the results of Small/Mid vs Large (S&P500).  Chart below shows the difference from 1972-2014.  I realize tha...
by ozzy
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 38134

Re: The Desert Portfolio

The Desert Portfolio looks pretty solid to me.  I just ran it through PortfolioVisualizer.com and it shows a 9.06% CAGR:

Image
by ozzy
Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why do you use the PP?
Replies: 177
Views: 72267

Re: Why do you use the PP?

I also use the PP because I believe in the theory behind it.  After studying the PP for a couple years I realized its the only truly diversified portfolio.  A 50/50 Boglehead portfolio just doesnt cover all the bases. Of course I have fiddled with the percentages and made mine more juicy, but I’m co...
by ozzy
Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How Old Are You?
Replies: 16
Views: 7976

Re: POLL: How Old Are You?

40
by ozzy
Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Might rising rates hit LTTs more softly than we fear?
Replies: 62
Views: 27937

Re: Might rising rates hit LTTs more softly than we fear?

Thats a good article from Hedgewise.  I also believe that LTTs wont be clobbered by rising rates over the long run.  I think its a lot of worry over nothing.  No doubt LTTs will decline temporarily, but stocks and gold will likely pick up the slack.  They always have. Plus, if your LTTs are in a fun...
by ozzy
Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: SP500 + 10y Treasuries since 1900
Replies: 13
Views: 9666

Re: SP500 + 10y Treasuries since 1900

Nominal.
by ozzy
Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: UUP ETF - Currency Hedge
Replies: 5
Views: 3677

Re: UUP ETF - Currency Hedge

Treasuries benefit from a rising dollar.  Since dividends are paid in dollars, there is increased demand from a strong reliable dividend generator like long-term treasuries. 

Equities are another story, they could go either way.
by ozzy
Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Marc Faber has proposed an eerily familiar asset allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 3443

Re: Marc Faber has proposed an eerily familiar asset allocation

Hmm, his portfolio sounds vaguely familiar  :P
by ozzy
Fri Jun 12, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: risk parity / volatility
Replies: 10
Views: 4325

Re: risk parity / volatility

Ya, there is no way I could stomach that many treasuries either.  It sounds similar to Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio  http://fmdcapital.com/can-handle-weather-portfolio/
by ozzy
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP for retirement in a comparative context
Replies: 12
Views: 7738

Re: PP for retirement in a comparative context

The analysis uses VGPMX for the Gold portion of the PP allocation. Where's the garbage can? PortfolioVisualizer.com lists its data souces here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/faq#dataSources For Gold they use KITCO returns 1972-2004, and GLD from 2004-2014.  Thats pretty accurate in my opinion.
by ozzy
Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: 29% of Americans over 55 have zero retirement savings
Replies: 10
Views: 4339

Re: 29% of Americans over 55 have zero retirement savings

You are exactly correct Mark. Thats always been my observation too.
by ozzy
Thu May 14, 2015 5:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296821

Re: No where to hide

For those interested, here's a good 30min video on how the ecomony works, according to Ray Dalio:

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0
by ozzy
Fri May 08, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296821

Re: No where to hide

And then the PP has a day like today, and all is right with the world... ;D Just kidding, of course...have a nice weekend everyone.  It is refreshing to have found this forum last year, with calm, rational, understandable people! Yup, couldn't ask for a better day for the PP :-)  I agree this forum...
by ozzy
Thu May 07, 2015 11:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296821

Re: No where to hide

Designing a portfolio to meet the four conditions was not made up by Harry Browne, either. PP is not a cult or religion. Big commercial providers are in this space, too. Click here to see Compass diagram . Ochotona - One important difference is the PP is passive (e.g. permanent).  The Schwab Windha...
by ozzy
Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329596

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

FYI - a relevent article to this discussion:  A Different View of Double-Leveraged ETFs. "The authors go on to note that if a hypothetical double-leveraged broad market U.S. equity was held from 1951 through 2014, that make believe ETF would have generated returns 1.67 times better than its non-leve...
by ozzy
Sun Apr 12, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel
Replies: 43
Views: 21840

Re: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel

ochotona wrote: I think reduced gold is prudent also. I like 15%, but 20% is more attractive to me than 25%, certainly.
I use 15% for gold too.
by ozzy
Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 52% have no money in the stock market
Replies: 10
Views: 5166

52% have no money in the stock market

"More than half of Americans, 52 percent, are currently not investing in the stock market—either by buying individual stocks or mutual funds, or through a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a new Bankrate.com survey." "A study from the Federal Reserve found that only 13.8 perce...