This discussion brings up my recent thoughts of just going all Treasury Bills or cash. My grandfather lived a sort of Dave Ramsey existence. He never borrowed money, never had credit cards and paid cash for all of his vehicles. The amount of interest he saved over his lifetime must have been stagger...

T-bills will keep up with inflation over the longer term, but it helps to shorten the maturity if the interest rate is starting to climb rapidly-- like right now. Also not helpful to get stuck at the front end of an inverted yield curve-- as in the last year. What is the longer term? I am pretty su...

I have been in the PP for some time and been reading this board for quite a while. I became intrigued by the Desert Portfolio a while ago and the more I look and study it, the more it seems to beat the PP over most periods of time both in an absolute and a risk-adjusted level. The major difference i...

I currently own a very basic 4x PP (TLT, IAU,VTI,SHV). Now that I am amassing a decent amount of money in each ETF, is it of any value to buy multiple ETFs for each asset to spread the risk of one ETF going under? For example instead of having all of my LT Treasury money in TLT I can split it betwee...

https://amplifyetfs.com/swan.html

Anyone every looked at this ETF? What is the difference (besides the expense ratio) between buying this and making my own Desert Portfolio using ETFs?

escafandro wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:43 pm 40 Stocks
40 Long Bond
20 Gold

May I ask what drew you to that portfolio?

Over 50% of NFL Revenue comes from television contracts. Ticket sales are a much smaller %. And since it costs nothing for people to sit at home and watch games on tv, they really aren’t feeling the hit of higher player salaries other than the incessant advertising that invades every part of the gam...

https://www.polygon.com/2019/2/16/18226581/activision-blizzard-layoffs-executive-pay-unions I have always been fascinated by stocks and owning a piece of a company etc. But recently I have had more friends and co-workers than I have ever heard from before tell me that investing in stocks is "im...

I need to be educated on the issue of low volumes but if I am going to buy and hold this ETF in my PP for many, many years (I hope), what is the issue for me purchasing this instead of a higher volume etf?

You need at least 20% gold to do well in a 1970s-like era - check the year by year real returns on Portfoliocharts.com and you'll see what I mean. I thought the whole point of the Desert Portfolio was to appeal to conservative investors who are skittish about gold. It fills that niche very well. It...

You still get good diversity with an index fund, but I wonder how much better than buying and holding a basket of stocks it really is. In the new era of zero commissions, this might be worth a rethink. You'd want to buy and hold as opposed to constantly rebalance though. I bet we will start seeing ...

You still get good diversity with an index fund, but I wonder how much better than buying and holding a basket of stocks it really is. In the new era of zero commissions, this might be worth a rethink. You'd want to buy and hold as opposed to constantly rebalance though. I bet we will start seeing ...

One way I tried for a while was on Jan 2 of each year, just look at the S&P 500, 400 and 600 etfs and buy the top 10 holdings in each one. That gives you 30 stocks diversified by market cap. Then next Jan sell the ones that are gone and buy the new ones. The few years I did it, I always outperfo...

The same things I like about the Desert Portfolio are the same things that worry me about it. One the one hand, it is so simple to have my entire portfolio in 3 funds (IEF, VTI, IAU) that seem to cover most economic scenarios. But on the other hand I look at my brokerage statement and think oh my go...

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1980&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annua...

Interesting article on stock buybacks and the current state of the market


https://www.epsilontheory.com/yeah-its-still-water/

I am interested to know from those who have been studying this a while, how many of you are still in the traditional vanilla 4x PP vs how many of you have done modifications (adding small caps or momentum etfs) or have changed your percentages entirely?

Here are a couple of articles he pointed me to. Although they are older articles.


http://blogmaverick.com/2010/08/25/the- ... -ever-get/

http://blogmaverick.com/2006/01/02/my-i ... -for-2006/

I have a question for everyone. I have a friend who may be called a minimalist and has amassed quite a bit of savings over the years. And he has never invested a penny in stocks, gold, etfs or really anything but cash in the bank. He has an interesting point of view and has given me articles written...

Ah, I see the problem. You split the barbell 50/50 between cash and long treasuries. To equate to a 10 year, you would use 40% long treasuries and 60% cash. Also you used SHV which returned near zero during most of your tested time period. Keeping cash gives you a lot of options that can do much be...

That's interesting, jalanlong. Can you post some numbers? I'd assumed the barbell is equivalent to IEF, but it is probably not simply a linear combination. I would expect it to be heavily dependent on the shape of the yield curve, and that difference in performance may not hold up in other time per...

I personally have a strong preference for the cash & long term treasury (barbell) combination, over the 10 year ladder or intermediate fund, because it's so much more flexible, and there are many good things about having a big chunk of cash. Assuming the barbell really is equivalent to the 10 y...

The difference is in the question. Here's what I want, how do I get it? vs What should I want, and how do I get it? Essentially I am running the Desert Portfolio and trying to keep as close to a 10 Year Treasury as possible. I am using M1 Finance so purchasing 10 year Treasuries directly is not pos...

I am currently using the Desert Portfolio as my savings vehicle: 60% IEF 10% AAAU 15% MTUM 15% USLV I am saving all of my spouse's paychecks each month in anticipation of buying a vacation home in 2-3 years (2 years being the absolute quickest it could happen). What are everyone's opinions on the ri...

If I wanted to get as close as possible to a constant 10 year Treasury in ETF form, how would I divvy up these ETFS? IEF 7-10 Treasury has an avg maturity of 8.49 years and an avg duration of 7.59 years TLH 10-20 Treasury has an avg maturity of 16.97 years and an avg duration of 12.50 years Do I wei...