Search found 3483 matches

by Ad Orientem
Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: That Waits That Matter
Replies: 15
Views: 7829

Re: That Waits That Matter

Those of us who have dedicated our careers to health care must confront the fact that our inability (or, more likely, unwillingness) to reduce the waits and delays that bedevil emergency care is harming and even killing our patients. The Shakespearean warning “Defer no time, delays have dangerous e...
by Ad Orientem
Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:55 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Buffet's Alpha
Replies: 6
Views: 3495

Re: Buffet's Alpha

With all due respect to Buffet, I recall reading somewhere that his returns over the last decade were not that impressive.
by Ad Orientem
Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What if there was no gold?
Replies: 12
Views: 4772

Re: What if there was no gold?

Probably silver or whatever had taken gold's place as the most universally recognized store of value for the last 6000 years.
by Ad Orientem
Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Need a little guidance
Replies: 48
Views: 16354

Re: Need a little guidance

Good catch. I didn't read it that carefully.
by Ad Orientem
Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Need a little guidance
Replies: 48
Views: 16354

Re: Need a little guidance

stone wrote: I'm sure that if the UK hadn't had rationing post WWII, we would have had hyperinflation.
If you didn't have rationing you would have lost the war. I don't like rationing and as a rule I think it's a bad idea. But there are exceptions to every rule.
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Just found an interesting Gold prediction in Bogleheads
Replies: 14
Views: 6647

Re: Just found an interesting Gold prediction in Bogleheads

Rick Ferri is a very smart guy. Unfortunately he has a low tolerance for contrary opinions that sometimes comes across as snarky arrogance.
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:11 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Travel Guide From 1910
Replies: 6
Views: 3114

Re: Travel Guide From 1910

This is awesome, thanks for the link! "Passports are required only in Russia and Turkey." Oh how the times have changed! I know. I was reading about traveling on ocean steamships to get to Europe and realized that this was published just two years before the Titanic disaster. The pre-Worl...
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A Good Time To Buy SLV?
Replies: 17
Views: 6129

Re: A Good Time To Buy SLV?

Both gold and silver have been showing signs of life lately. And I agree that silver could be a very profitable long term speculative investment. I have doubts about owning it physically though. Storage costs for silver storage could be much higher than gold for obvious reasons. Although I am not a ...
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I still don't understand why you need to hold physical gold
Replies: 29
Views: 14432

Re: I still don't understand why you need to hold physical gold

Setting aside the arguments for gold as an inflation hedge the question seems to be why physical? Physical gold is the financial equivalent to catastrophic health insurance. Most people on this forum don't expect a major SHTF scenario. But we are all aware that such things have happened and can do s...
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1
Replies: 36
Views: 13086

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1

When were those historical periods? Well, of course, it wasn't as severe in the USA as compared to other countries.  The worst was a -25% or so real loss during the 9-year period between 1939 and 1948.  Bbreakeven was not reached until 1954, a total of 20 years being underwater.  Thats 42.5% of a 4...
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1
Replies: 36
Views: 13086

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1

There were several historical periods that would have left you very broke in real terms, not nominal.  Invested primarily in equity markets in the world's largest economy? Invested primarily in debt of the world's strongest military? With a full 25% allocation to gold? When were those historical pe...
by Ad Orientem
Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1
Replies: 36
Views: 13086

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1

Broke?  Stocks, bonds, gold, and cash all fall to zero?  What sort of scenario leaves you broke with a Permanent Portfolio? There were several historical periods that would have left you very broke in real terms, not nominal.  Nominal is an illusion if your purchasing power has dropped 50%-75%+.  I...
by Ad Orientem
Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Travel Guide From 1910
Replies: 6
Views: 3114

Travel Guide From 1910

For those with an interest in history and cultural norms a comprehensive guide for travelers published by the Scientific American...
http://www.gjenvick.com/HistoricalBroch ... index.html
Quite a few photos included.
by Ad Orientem
Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1
Replies: 36
Views: 13086

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1

I am not a fan of dogmatism (although I would not be comfortable if anyone omitted any of the asset classes entirely). But if you want to throw in a little silver with your gold, go for it. If using a global stock index fund as opposed to all US will help you sleep at night, knock yourself out. If y...
by Ad Orientem
Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is Modern Portfolio Theory Dead? Come On.
Replies: 2
Views: 1778

Is Modern Portfolio Theory Dead? Come On.

Given the voluminous threads on this subject that have popped up I'm almost afraid to post this link. But here goes...
http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/11/is-mod ... d-come-on/
by Ad Orientem
Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Storing physical gold
Replies: 30
Views: 13672

Re: Storing physical gold

A safe deposit box in a bank is the best way to store gold 98% of the time. Home storage is always high risk. I don't care where you hide it, or how many dogs with big teeth you have or if you keep loaded firearms in every room of the house including next to the crapper. The only exception I can thi...
by Ad Orientem
Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HBPP Near-Equivalents
Replies: 15
Views: 11140

Re: HBPP Near-Equivalents

Ok, so the purest HBPP in today's world might be: 25% Total Stock Market Fund/ETF 25% Long-Term Treasury Bonds 25% Treasury Bills 25% Physical Gold A less "pure" version might use ETFs for the gold, LTTs, and STTs. An even less pure version might use PRPFX and EDV. And an even less pure v...
by Ad Orientem
Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HBPP Near-Equivalents
Replies: 15
Views: 11140

Re: HBPP Near-Equivalents

25% total stock market ETF 25% gold bullion 50% intermediate term treasury fund If Cuggino dropped the expense ratio to say 0.5% from the current .71%, and dumped the now useless Swiss francs, would PRPFX be a more palatable option? Hugely. But I agree with Reub. It's about as likely as a blizzard ...
by Ad Orientem
Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HBPP Near-Equivalents
Replies: 15
Views: 11140

Re: HBPP Near-Equivalents

The purer you go, the more of a hassle it is to manage. For me, ETFs + physical bullion is good enough to let me sleep at night. I agree. For me one of the great attractions of the PP is its simplicity. I feel quite safe holding the bonds cash and stocks in ETF's. If you are proposing an investment...
by Ad Orientem
Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Updated PP Performance Charts
Replies: 21
Views: 8777

Re: Updated PP Performance Charts

Nice charts. Thanks for posting.
by Ad Orientem
Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Certificate
Replies: 14
Views: 8301

Re: Perth Mint Certificate

Pros and Cons as compared to IAU in an IRA? Gold is the last asset you want in tax deferred. IMO. Fill it first with bonds, cash and stocks. Keep some cash out for emergencies though. Gold can go in last, but don't put all of it in there. Frankly the level of trust I have for Perth Mint over an etf...
by Ad Orientem
Sat Aug 18, 2012 5:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: President Vladimir Putin’s cruel tyranny is driven by paranoia
Replies: 40
Views: 9455

Re: President Vladimir Putin’s cruel tyranny is driven by paranoia

The Russian Orthodox Church has issued a statement appealing for mercy for the band members.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012 ... mercy?lite
by Ad Orientem
Sat Aug 18, 2012 4:59 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Paulson is betting big on gold
Replies: 0
Views: 1194

Paulson is betting big on gold

Billionaire John Paulson raised his stake in an exchange-traded fund tracking the price of gold while selling other stocks during the second quarter, leaving his $21 billion hedge fund with more than 44 percent of its U.S. traded equities tied to bullion. Read the rest here... http://www.bloomberg....