Search found 3559 matches

by Kshartle
Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: High gold price, with low inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 5980

Re: High gold price, with low inflation?

I think most people really underestimate the amount of inflation we've suffered at the hands of the Fed this past decade. We often confuse inflation with price increases. Inflation is really the expansion of the money supply and we all know it's been expanded greatly in the past ten years, probably ...
by Kshartle
Thu Dec 01, 2011 7:34 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: World stock fund for equity portion?
Replies: 19
Views: 11122

Re: World stock fund for equity portion?

Sure, but a market crash happens due to inflation, deflation, or recession, and the PP already has other assets to protect against those problems. However, in the context of the PP, the international stocks water down the stock allocation's tie to domestic prosperity.  Which tilts the portfolio tow...
by Kshartle
Sun Oct 02, 2011 5:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do we need more protection than just the PP?
Replies: 94
Views: 37330

Re: Do we need more protection than just the PP?

What's universal about a PP with no U.S. equities at all?  Why TLT instead of long-term global treasuries? It's not universal. VT captures US markets and is a better reflection of global stocks but although the difference is probably minimal. I think stock or currency risk is bigger when you concen...
by Kshartle
Sun Oct 02, 2011 8:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do we need more protection than just the PP?
Replies: 94
Views: 37330

Re: Do we need more protection than just the PP?

I'll do a backtest of the portfolio I've been discussing with the cash split between Yen/Francs. This is kind of cherry-picking two currencies that have appreciated 400%+ against the dollar in 40 years though. Maybe I'll throw something else in there but other than the Zimbabwe dollar almost everyth...
by Kshartle
Sat Oct 01, 2011 11:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do we need more protection than just the PP?
Replies: 94
Views: 37330

Re: Do we need more protection than just the PP?

A few points: 1. The PP worked fine in Iceland. 2. Stocks aren't necessarily "rocked" in high inflation. 3. If runaway inflation is affecting the dollar, it may very well be affecting a lot or all other currencies too. 4. I don't feel like searching for something better than the HBPP. Why don't you...
by Kshartle
Sat Oct 01, 2011 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do we need more protection than just the PP?
Replies: 94
Views: 37330

Re: Do we need more protection than just the PP?

So we're all gathering here with the intent of improving our investments. In no way should we accept the HBPP as some sort of magical formula for success in any investing environment. HB was not a magician. He was a brilliant investor and philosopher. I've read most of his books and consider the HBP...
by Kshartle
Thu Sep 22, 2011 4:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do we need more protection than just the PP?
Replies: 94
Views: 37330

Re: Do we need more protection than just the PP?

The permanent portfolio has proved itself completely inadequate to deal with hyperinflation. Stocks will be crushed in both an inflationary collapse and a deflationary one. That leaves gold facing off against the home currency at 50% disadvantage. To be sure, the pp holds up well during deflation fo...