Search found 100 matches

by tarentola
Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
Replies: 24
Views: 12301

Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??

Be careful with this line of thought. If you randomly bought 30 stocks across the range of sectors and market caps the odds are extremely high you are going to get your performance clock cleaned by a large cap index. You DO need a methodology for stock purchase if going to 30 individual stocks. Kbg...
by tarentola
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30967

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended.
Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%.
by tarentola
Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30967

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

Michael Kitces has an article which concludes that it is best to check frequently and rebalance opportunistically at 20% bands. A 2007 study in the Journal of Financial Planning by Gobind Daryanani entitled “Opportunistic Rebalancing” studied rolling 5-year periods from 1992 to 2004 and found that t...
by tarentola
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 31
Views: 14170

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

My intention a few posts back was not to talk up gold in particular, but rather to talk up asset diversification in general. Gold is an example of a diviersifier which is largely ignored by financial advisers - allegedly because they cannot make much money from advising you to invest in it. Meb Fabe...
by tarentola
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 31
Views: 14170

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

The view on most investing web sites seems to be that stocks are the main and perhaps the only asset class to invest in, because over an investing lifetime, stocks can go in only one direction. So when an investor suffers a loss, the forum reply is often: "Just stay the course, it will all come righ...
by tarentola
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP and PPeers
Replies: 13
Views: 7123

Re: EU-PP and PPeers

Frugal Why do you use C13 and MTH ? C13 is an ETF of 1-3 year bonds, and MTH is 25+ year bonds, the longest-bond Euro ETF I can find. If you have other suggestions I would love to hear them. CEU is the MSCI Europe index ETF, but there is also the Eurostoxx 600 as well as individual country ETFs like...
by tarentola
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP and PPeers
Replies: 13
Views: 7123

Re: EU-PP and PPeers

Figures for today (ETFs traded in Paris) and on 1 Jan 2020, with difference %. Vanilla EU PP in Euros: CEU 166.78 245.32 -32.02% MTH 131.00 125.16 4.67% GBS 131.08 127.04 3.18% C13 168.09 168.61 -0.31% Combined -6.12% EUR/USD 1.0673 1.12375 -5.28% The vanilla US PP in dollars seems to have done bett...
by tarentola
Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161387

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

I’m not sure what you are challenging, the fact that LTTs will respond best in a period of falling rates? The central tenet of the PP that I am challenging is that LTTs are the best bonds to use, due to their volatility. The backtesting I did indicates that LTTs are the best PP bonds only when inte...
by tarentola
Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161387

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Vinny Thanks for reviving this thread. This topic is more relevant than ever I guess. 1. A full three years later, after both this and your prior analysis, what have you been deciding to do during these past three years? For my PP, I ended up in a compromise, buying some medium and some long. 3 Jan ...
by tarentola
Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Replies: 18
Views: 8735

Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

My Euro PP of individual Euro HY shares, 15Y+ govt bond ETF, gold ETC and cash: +18%. Some of my Euro shares came good after years of underperformance, notably the bank Société Générale and the pharma Sanofi. Vanilla 4x25% Euro PP . ETFs traded in Paris, Google Finance symbols: EPA:CEU 21.61% MSCI ...
by tarentola
Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
Replies: 15
Views: 7596

Re: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help

SilentStoic I used to be in a similar position, with a number of possibly ill-chosen stocks and bonds and no clear strategy. The good thing is, I have cash. I need to buy more bonds and gold. So I need to figure out what is the total holdings, and buy some gold and bonds while leaving the rest in ca...
by tarentola
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is your current portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 27353

Re: What is your current portfolio?

I am in the Eurozone. Retired, so even my VP (20% of total) is pretty conservative. 1. PP 4x25% Stocks 50% individual Euro dividend shares (Sanofi, Vinci, Red Electrica, Renault, Air Liquide etc) 25% German Dax ETF (DAX from Lyxor) 12.5% each Nasdaq and Emerging Markets ETFs (ANX and AEEM from Amund...
by tarentola
Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio for European investor
Replies: 5
Views: 6805

Re: Portfolio for European investor

Yes, this year gold in Europe (GBS) has gained 19%, while gold in the US (GLD) has gained 15%. So this year at least, gold is doing ok.
by tarentola
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12015

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

For info again: Amundi started a gold ETC last May. Perhaps of interest to European PP investors as Amundi is owned by Crédit Agricole, which is the biggest bank in France and so relatively secure. Backed by physically allocated gold, held by HSBC.
by tarentola
Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A bond yield-based asset rotation strategy for the PP
Replies: 0
Views: 11329

A bond yield-based asset rotation strategy for the PP

Can anyone help me to understand this article : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4283733-simple-rules-based-asset-rotation-strategy. Without mentioning the Permanent Portfolio, the article describes a timing system to decide which of the three PP components SPY, TLT and GLD to buy. The back-tested r...
by tarentola
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12015

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

For info: since 1 January, a vanilla Euro PP of CEU, MTH, GBS and C13, all traded in Paris, is up 12.4%. A vanilla US dollar PP (SPY, TLT, GLD, SHY) is up 10.8%. EUR/USD rate is virtually unchanged since 1 January.
by tarentola
Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2018 Results Post Here
Replies: 26
Views: 17161

Re: 2018 Results Post Here

FTSE MTS Eurozone Government Bond IG 25Y+ (Mid Price) Index. Sold by Lyxor, traded in Paris. ISIN LU1686832194.

https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/track ... rs/1rTMTH/
by tarentola
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2018 Results Post Here
Replies: 26
Views: 17161

Re: 2018 Results Post Here

My Euro PP: -1.41% A generic Euro PP of four ETFs: CEU -12.14% MSCI Europe Index MTH 5.29% 25+year bonds GBS 3.09% Gold C13 -0.33% 1-3 year bonds Combined -1.02% Interesting that the best performer in Europe was long bonds, which many people (including me) thought should be abandoned because of risi...
by tarentola
Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: How to withdraw cash in retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 16051

Re: How to withdraw cash in retirement?

Thanks for the replies. For the first quarter of this year, I estimated the amount I would need for spending in Jan-Mar, and transferred a top-up from the PP to my checking account to complement the pension money I expect to receive in those three months. I will see how it looks on 1 April and adjus...
by tarentola
Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:44 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: How to withdraw cash in retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 16051

Re: How to withdraw cash in retirement?

That helped reinforce thinking about money once a year and spending the rest of my time enjoying retirement. :) Tyler: thanks, that is a useful idea. Recently I had to spend a lot of time and paperwork organising the payment of state and private pensions, so I would particularly like to stop thinki...
by tarentola
Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: How to withdraw cash in retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 16051

How to withdraw cash in retirement?

I have held a Permanent Portfolio for a several years and the time has come for me to draw on it. Up to now, all my cash reserve was in the PP in a short bond ETF and a bank deposit account. I use a current or checking account from the same bank for day-to-day expenses. To draw on the PP, I intend t...
by tarentola
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Purpose of the PP
Replies: 152
Views: 76517

Re: Purpose of the PP

Primary is Euro PP: 60% of savings
Also dividend growth portfolio: 25%
and Merriman-type multi-asset: 15%

Having several porfolios is just a way of diversifying, as different strategies do better at different times.
by tarentola
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Replies: 39
Views: 19888

Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance

Since 1 Jan: My Euro PP (includes blue chip shares so not completely conventional): -1.23% Conventional Euro PP which I track for comparison (25% each ETFs CEU, MTH, GBS, C13): -1.19% Similar to the US PPs. Gold in Euros is -7% since 1 Jan and the Euro is down relative to the dollar so the Euro pric...
by tarentola
Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: European PP
Replies: 11
Views: 8298

Re: European PP

Shaymor I have been running a European PP for a while, also in France. I cannot say the results are good this year. For example, year to date: 1. My PP. This contains individual French blue chips and a DAX ETF: -1.3%. A paper four-ETF PP of CEU, MTH, GBS and C13 (similar to yours) which I follow for...
by tarentola
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Dividend Growth Investing
Replies: 42
Views: 50663

Re: Dividend Growth Investing

A recent article on Seeking Alpha which provides a good classification of dividend growth shares to consider:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/415331 ... wth-stocks