well, at least we agree on the direction, but 50 % GLD is a bit optimistic. First inflation has to rock, before GLD will rise. IMO.Kshartle wrote: VTI +9%
TLT -18%
GLD +50%
SHY +.4%
HBPP +10.5%
Bonus - SLV +75%
Search found 176 matches
- Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:25 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
- Replies: 57
- Views: 31037
Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
- Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:15 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Predictions For 2013
- Replies: 95
- Views: 33844
Re: Predictions For 2013
I have proven in the past to be the worst prophet of all, so be aware VTI: +32 % TLT: - 8 % GLD -12 % SHY + 4 % makes + 4 % portfolio not to bad, but I have a crystal ball Spectacular getting direction right 4/4 and degree so spot on with VTI and close with TLT. I do have a question though.....wh...
- Wed Jan 01, 2014 4:26 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
- Replies: 57
- Views: 31037
Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
VTI +10%
TLT -8%
GLD +4%
SHY +1%
makes for the portfolio:+ 1,5 %
TLT -8%
GLD +4%
SHY +1%
makes for the portfolio:+ 1,5 %
- Wed Jan 01, 2014 3:54 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Predictions For 2013
- Replies: 95
- Views: 33844
Re: Predictions For 2013
not to bad, but I have a crystal ballThomas Hoog wrote: I have proven in the past to be the worst prophet of all, so be aware
VTI: +32 %
TLT: - 8 %
GLD -12 %
SHY + 4 %
makes + 4 % portfolio
- Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:04 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Book: Misconceptions of Risk: Terje Aven (Wiley)
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1971
- Fri Nov 22, 2013 4:46 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold and real interest rates
- Replies: 5
- Views: 4039
Re: Gold and real interest rates
That is, in the current environment, one would expect gold prices to be rising, and yet they aren't. Why not? Negative real interest rates have historically been present when the central banks are trying to use monetary policy to offset an economic dislocation (recession). Investor psychology at ...
- Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:42 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: sold s&p 500 today to rebalance
- Replies: 13
- Views: 10305
Re: sold s&p 500 today to rebalance
I have rebalanced one month ago. Every cell in my brain says: don''t. But it has works very well in the past. Just keep to your strategy.
It is the hardest aspect of investing.
It is the hardest aspect of investing.
- Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:38 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Value investing
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4021
Re: Value investing
You use the term "Value investing" and you reffer to sites concerning Dividend Growth.
These are different strategies. So I'm not sure what you want
These are different strategies. So I'm not sure what you want
- Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:55 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Changing to global stocks and gold only
- Replies: 137
- Views: 54003
Re: Changing to global stocks and gold only
It angers me because it is misleading and has costed me in missing an opportunity I clearly saw. But if you clearly saw it, then why didn't you do it? How did the PP interfere with the decision? I self attacked after failing with silver and precious mining stocks in 2008. I threw in the towel. Sai...
- Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:43 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Changing to global stocks and gold only
- Replies: 137
- Views: 54003
Re: Changing to global stocks and gold only
Reub, here you can see in detail what I was invested in in 2008 (it's dutch article but table is english): http://www.marcdemesel.be/2012/02/mijn-portefeuille-verliest-3-in-2011.html Basically I had a PP for the most part, and some speculations, a portfolio with stocks by Puplava securities as well...
- Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:11 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?
- Replies: 120
- Views: 49793
Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?
Well, back on topic I track my "wealth" grow since 2000. And I think I can retire if the portfolio growth exceeds my present income for 5 rolling years. So I don't calculate inflation, however I will have less costs due to morgage paying off and the kids leaving the house. According to the present f...
- Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:32 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Overcoming inflation for good
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4595
Re: Overcoming inflation for good
some cultural differences: we only have public schools You rather be dead then visiting the health care in the UK A bike is expensive Somehow I'm very unpractical, just can't can't fix anything But I do have 2 chickens, which provide me with 3 eggs in the week during spring and summer. But I agree w...
- Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:39 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
- Replies: 46
- Views: 28937
Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
http://dripinvesting.org/
and for coke it is 51 years
and i have started a dividend growth portfolio, just for fun and retirement income. I will tell in january
and for coke it is 51 years
and i have started a dividend growth portfolio, just for fun and retirement income. I will tell in january
- Mon Nov 04, 2013 8:03 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
- Replies: 46
- Views: 28937
Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Coca Cola gained 70 % in the last decade, 7 % average pro year Nice, it just doesn't make you rich. I made with a bit tweaked PP portfolio the last decade 7% pro year. Nice, but I'm not rich. Berkshire hathaway gained 116 %, 11,6 % average. He is good and he is rich. (and an execption). Bank of Amer...
- Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:52 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
- Replies: 46
- Views: 28937
Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
It is based on the Ivy timed model
See Mebane Faber
http://www.mebanefaber.com/
You only get rich if you start a succefull business
See Mebane Faber
http://www.mebanefaber.com/
You only get rich if you start a succefull business
- Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:39 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
- Replies: 46
- Views: 28937
Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Well, It is the first of the month. So here we go: Started april first: 2 changes since the first idea: to add commodities as a asset: to have more running horses to gambling on And to change the cash part from 1-3 years bond to 3-5 years bond: just add some more yield knowing you will have 20-40 % ...
- Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:33 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Changing to global stocks and gold only
- Replies: 137
- Views: 54003
Re: Changing to global stocks and gold only
PEAKtrough: HB balanced Years 32.85 CAGR 7.53% Starting Capital 10,000 Ending Capital 108,566 Total Return 985.66% Max Drawdown 14.37% (1981-01-06 - 1982-03-15) DD > 10% Count 4 Annualized Std. Dev 6.21% Sharpe Ratio 0.42 HB no balanced Years 32.85 CAGR 6.69% Starting Capital 10,000 Ending Capital 8...
- Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:03 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
- Replies: 348
- Views: 112194
Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
I have read all 21 pages and it confirms my own experience with investing . Investing is not an exact science any more than economics or predicting the weather. And figures, including the inflation figures are manipulated. But it is a balanced system. A high pressure area always flows to a low press...
- Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:24 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Equity Allocation to World Regions
- Replies: 5
- Views: 4568
Re: Equity Allocation to World Regions
They don't cover all stocks so I can't enter my portfolio
- Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:36 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP investors--stay the course
- Replies: 282
- Views: 124101
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Well, I just rebalanced into Gold & LTT from Cash & Stocks, so maybe that set the turning point
- Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:50 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Setting up the stock part of the PP
- Replies: 11
- Views: 7147
Re: Setting up the stock part of the PP
Just out of sympathie for HB:
25 % own country
25 % Europa
25 % USA
25 % other markets of which:
25% Pacific
25 % Asia
25 % EM
25 Latin America
25 % own country
25 % Europa
25 % USA
25 % other markets of which:
25% Pacific
25 % Asia
25 % EM
25 Latin America
- Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:40 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: You never know
- Replies: 38
- Views: 13462
Re: You never know
Just a quote:
"Inflation is like toothpaste. Once she is out of the tube, you will not get them there, ", former Bundesbank president Karl Otto Pohl once said.
"Inflation is like toothpaste. Once she is out of the tube, you will not get them there, ", former Bundesbank president Karl Otto Pohl once said.
- Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Taper Predictions?
- Replies: 37
- Views: 14991
Re: Taper Predictions?
:) I like the dog, maybe he/she wants to become our mascotte ? Does it has a name ? Name is "Spot." I hope he continues to rise. I thought maybe we could name it "Chaps." Quess that not being native English, I'm missing the clue. However "spotting": "alle asset classes are up" is more easy to prono...
- Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:20 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
- Replies: 60
- Views: 24807
Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
An idea, though not an advise. (who needs a phone).
"Telefonica SA, through its entity Telefonica Europe BV two perpetual bonds issued: the first perpetual bond has a fixed coupon of 6.5% during the first five years, ending on until September 18, 2018."
"Telefonica SA, through its entity Telefonica Europe BV two perpetual bonds issued: the first perpetual bond has a fixed coupon of 6.5% during the first five years, ending on until September 18, 2018."
- Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:10 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Taper Predictions?
- Replies: 37
- Views: 14991
Re: Taper Predictions?
I like the dog, maybe he/she wants to become our mascotte ? Does it has a name ?