Apologies if this was discussed when it first came out but it sure seems timely as ever given what has happened since (and the author points this out - there's been no need to revise it). The author has a more recent article on asset bubbles across the board that I'll post on the general PP forum. H...

Two editorials of possible interest in today's NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/opinion/debt-ceiling-congress-default-real.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-...

Larry Swedroe has been writing about the difference in SCV funds and ETFs quite a bit lately. In a recent post on Bogleheads he says that not just Vanguard but even his "alma mater" (so to speak) DFA's small value offerings have gotten too large, asset-wise, to invest in the truly "va...

Thanks rickb and Cortopassi for your comments and sentiments. I'm in the same boat vis-a-vis 2008, as I suspect a lot of us are. We all sign on for volatile individual assets when we take on the PP, but it is indeed difficult to see two of them getting hammered every day in unison with no end in sig...

Might as well require turning in all weapons that aren't musket-loaders and require the slaves to get back to their plantations while you're at it.

I'm not sure I'm understanding you correctly, but it seems you may be advocating more of a Boglehead type portfolio vs. a Browne type portfolio. Might a Boglehead portfolio, perhaps like one of the target retirement funds, deal with Black Swans a bit better, especially if one is in the distribution...

I'm very sanguine about the PP's ability to withstand interest rate increases, stock market crashes, etc. On the other hand, I'm skeptical of the PP's ability to withstand an idiot congress led by an ignoramus who together seem like the perfect storm that may end up with the US defaulting on Treasu...

By no means am I saying these esteemed authors are all wrong, but neither are Bernstein and the studies he references. Tyler's wise comments here and the great article (which I personally am going to print out and save!) he provided the link to speak eloquently to just how complex an asset gold real...

Re: gold not being an inflation hedge, Bernstein discusses this in detail in "Deep Risk." Here are a couple of highlights: "In an exhaustive review of gold's long-term performance, academics Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey noted that gold returns correlated poorly not only with inflati...

Thanks Tyler for doing the heat map for Desert's newer portfolio. Getting back to the OP's query: part of HB's genius was allocating not based on backtested performance or correlations but on having a meaningful slice of assets that would thrive in particular economic conditions. As we saw in '08, &...

The confusion here is that the OP and Desert are talking about the REVISED Desert Portfolio (which I nicknamed the "Desert Oasis" without dispensation from Desert) while Machine Ghost is talking about the original Desert portfolio - and the latter is what's on Tyler's site. The updated ver...

Weighted average maturity is 25.20 years Vanguard vs. 26.74 for TLT, average duration is 17.2 vs. 18. I think for the difference in expense ratio I'll stick with the Vanguard option. Interestingly though TLT has double the assets of the Vanguard fund, so those who prefer it have lots of company. Tha...

My IRA where I have the most room for bonds is at Vanguard (I took Craig R's advice about splitting assets between a couple of brokerages and have everything else at Schwab). I'm currently using VUSUX for the long-term treasury allocation but it seems that most here favor TLT (acknowledging of cours...

This is just brilliant Tyler, and so helpful! I thought that I was missing something obvious and it turns out I was missing multiple somethings! I really appreciate you taking the time to respond to the article. BTW Larry first shared the article over on Bogleheads and I see the from the responses t...

Larry Swedroe just posed this excellent article on mistakes most investors (including a lot of financial planners) make in portfolio choices: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2016/08/02/a-common-and-costly-mistake-investors-and-their-advisors-make PP adherents understandably take a lot of...

Along the same lines Dieter, the equity allocation from Bob Clyatt (you may know his book "Work Less, Live More") is a good showcase for an all-seasons portfolio arrived at by running all of the asset class valuations and historical returns through the DFA screens: The Sandwich Porfolio 20...

It can't be said too often: THANK YOU TYLER for the amazing gift of the Porfolio Charts site. I do agree with Desert and barrett that any backtesting of portfolios involving gold should start in 1975. Running the numbers as Desert suggested (his portfolio vs. GB and classic 60:40) I come up with thi...

Good to see you back! I disagree, cuz: Nope, Desert is correct. When you do the actual comparison he recommended it's very clear that the contribution of gold to the performance vs 60:40 when we came off the gold standard was a once-in-a-lifetime thing. Here's 1972-2015: https://www.portfoliovisual...

I agree. They are evidence based but you can debate about how strong the evidence is. I even believe in Small/Value having a higher expected return than a cap-weighted index. I also believe however, that the level of out-performance of small/value in all those backtest-tools is not likely to be rep...

Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. It can still make sense to hold SCV but there's no reason t...

Tyler actually replaced Small Cap Value with Small Cap Blend in the version of the GB he said he himself has implemented. Aside from the lengthy thread on GB here there are two other equally epic ones on the Mr. Money Mustache and Early Retirement Extreme forums and I don't recall on which of them h...

Thanks for making the time to reply Desert, and for sharing your insights on this forum. I really appreciate it!

I've been spending some more time looking at the GB and various iterations and am wondering why Desert's variation hasn't gotten more discussion. With the obvious caveat that backtesting only goes so far when I run the numbers comparing the GB with Desert's version the latter comes out well ahead on...

You'd have to decide if holding gold outside the U.S. actually provides another level of safety or not. Personally I think the always-formidable U.S. security and spy capabilities have certainly long since passed the point where - in the unlikely event the government wanted to confiscate your gold -...

Not sure if this is a dead thread since I see the last post was in April. Maybe this thread is dead but interest in the Golden Butterfly isn't. There was even a thread about it not long ago on Bogleheads ( https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=189431 ) I adopted it at the start of this y...