Search found 158 matches

by ozzy
Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 193497

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

FYI - a relevent article to this discussion:  A Different View of Double-Leveraged ETFs. "The authors go on to note that if a hypothetical double-leveraged broad market U.S. equity was held from 1951 through 2014, that make believe ETF would have generated returns 1.67 times better than its non-leve...
by ozzy
Sun Apr 12, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel
Replies: 47
Views: 12448

Re: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel

ochotona wrote: I think reduced gold is prudent also. I like 15%, but 20% is more attractive to me than 25%, certainly.
I use 15% for gold too.
by ozzy
Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 52% have no money in the stock market
Replies: 11
Views: 3078

52% have no money in the stock market

"More than half of Americans, 52 percent, are currently not investing in the stock market—either by buying individual stocks or mutual funds, or through a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a new Bankrate.com survey." "A study from the Federal Reserve found that only 13.8 perce...
by ozzy
Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 193497

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

internationalcanuck, Suggestion – Instead of replacing the 3x gold ETF with a 2x, why not just reduce the 3x gold allocation?  For example, my backtesting shows this has been a good mix for long-term stability: 38% UPRO 38% TMF 24% UGLD What I do is dollar-cost-average in every month.  This smooths ...
by ozzy
Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A Personal Note
Replies: 19
Views: 4910

Re: A Personal Note

Sorry to hear, stay strong bro.
by ozzy
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy
Replies: 78
Views: 23459

Re: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy

Hi Fish, I’ve updated my JuicyP website, it’s all ETFs now.  I dollar cost average in monthly so I’m only adding to the ETFs and will sell my remaining VWINX at year-end rebalance time.  Yes my JuicyP outperforms the pure PP (that’s the point), but it’s not really a fair comparison because my portfo...
by ozzy
Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What ETF best approximates a Boglehead-type portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 2709

Re: What ETF best approximates a Boglehead-type portfolio?

PS,

For free backtesting of various ETFs and/or mutual funds combination these 2 tools are the best: 

http://ezbacktest.blogspot.com

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio
by ozzy
Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Suffers Record Outflows
Replies: 30
Views: 9847

Re: TLT Suffers Record Outflows

I agree Barrett.  I’ll be buying TLT as it goes down for sure.  At Fidelity TLT is commission free, so I can place Buy-Limit orders for the smallest quantity (1 share).  This is very nice since I’m in the accumulation phase of my PP and constantly adding to it.  It lets me buy the dips.
by ozzy
Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorter Term Instead of LT Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 7178

Re: Shorter Term Instead of LT Bonds?

Hi D1984, The PP did just fine during 1977-1981. Also, let’s not forget the perceived flight to safety that LT US bonds represent.  For example, right you need to pay the German govt to hold their bonds (negative interest rates).  And you know what, people are paying it!  People will pay to keep the...
by ozzy
Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorter Term Instead of LT Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 7178

Re: Shorter Term Instead of LT Bonds?

One more thought.  Forgive me for sounding too cocky here, but I don’t think rising interests are going to hurt to PP much at all.  It may hurt overall performance for a year or two, but then the PP is likely to over-perform.  Here’s why I believe this.  Take a look at this historical chart of Inter...
by ozzy
Mon Mar 16, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Suffers Record Outflows
Replies: 30
Views: 9847

TLT Suffers Record Outflows

FYI - article: "The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TLT) experienced its worst three-week outflow since it began trading in 2002".

http://www.etftrends.com/2015/03/long-t ... -outflows/
by ozzy
Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy
Replies: 78
Views: 23459

Re: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy

Hi Fish, If you peruse this forum you'll find we don’t like TIPS.  They don't add any value to the portfolio.  I think CraigR said it best "buying TIPS is like buying arson insurance from an arsonist".  As for REITs, I don't see the value there either.  I already own all the REITs as part of my tota...