Search found 1944 matches

by Tyler
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold
Replies: 37
Views: 1868

Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Men working to start a bitcoin ETF promote bitcoin.

I don't completely dismiss Bitcoin as an upstart alternative currency. But I will say that if the only points in the section "the problem with gold" are asteroids and the third-best Die Hard, then I'm not too worried about gold in my lifetime.
by Tyler
Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tyler hits it out of the park - again!
Replies: 10
Views: 570

Re: Tyler hits it out of the park - again!

I figured the crew here would enjoy that one. :)

It took a while to put together, but I admit it's kinda nice to finally document everything. I'm glad to hear it makes sense!
by Tyler
Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 2512

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

Though I have one question: 1) For longer duration bonds, once the interest rate is getting lower and negative , their values can appreciate at a much greater pace, and act as a nice protection to the portfolio. But one concern raised by some investors like Ray Dalio is more about how low the yield...
by Tyler
Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: If you're planning to flee a blue state, don't wait too long
Replies: 12
Views: 392

Re: If you're planning to flee a blue state, don't wait too long

Yeah, I don't see how collecting state taxes from someone who hasn't set foot in the state for years can possibly be enforceable. But the simple fact that a state assemblyman thinks it's something he can pull off is sure to chase off even more taxpayers. It's a classic lose-lose political move. ::)
by Tyler
Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 2512

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

The problem is, what happened in the past wont necessarily happen in future. The backtesting result you and I see on the computer screen does not take sth in account: negative interest rate That's only partially true. If you look at real rates rather than nominal rates, the low rates today are not ...
by Tyler
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Noted gold hater has a change of heart
Replies: 7
Views: 585

Noted gold hater has a change of heart

In case you haven't heard, the most famous investor in the world and perhaps the most commonly quoted person in terms of why gold is not a worthwhile investment just bought 21 million shares of Barrick Gold. (BTW, the forum really needs a flying pig emoji). https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-14/Warr...
by Tyler
Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2945
Views: 658666

Re: The GOLD scream room

How kind of the markets to rebalance my portfolio by selling off gold so I don't have to. ;D
by Tyler
Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BelangP proves PP is the least volatile
Replies: 9
Views: 1527

Re: BelangP proves PP is the least volatile

Speaking of the above chart, I was really curious if you had ever researched a 35% Gold / 65% Stock allocation. I know you are a fan of PWR rates. It appears that the 65%/35% outperforms a PP in terms of Withdrawal Rates in both a US and Japan environment on your website (and was comparable to a Ja...
by Tyler
Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated
Replies: 14
Views: 985

Re: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated

No worries! I'm a huge supporter of independent data analysis and have an open mind. And I appreciate you guys thinking critically and asking good questions. It's how we keep each other honest.
by Tyler
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated
Replies: 14
Views: 985

Re: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated

The reality is gold data is missing from the 30s to the 70s for the US, but unless I missed something I think he is using the London price of gold throughout the study...so I don't think we should glibly toss the data because we don't like what it says. Here's the nominal gold price data taken dire...
by Tyler
Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated
Replies: 14
Views: 985

Re: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated

A follow up question would be how one would modify the PP under the conditions of a legitimate gold standard. Silver might be an interesting option. It's not the same as gold, but it's one of the closer assets to meeting the general Permanent Portfolio design intent under a gold standard. It's cert...
by Tyler
Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated
Replies: 14
Views: 985

Re: Big ERN Safe Withdrawal Rates - GB and PP Evaluated

A few forum thoughts from when it was first written: viewtopic.php?t=10365