Search found 216 matches

by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 620
Views: 52233

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

When was the last time a sitting President who wished to run for a second term lost a primary?: 1.Taft lost a number of primaries to Teddy Roosevelt (and Robert LaFolette) in the campaign for the Republican nomination of 1912. The campaign was so bitter that TR walked out of the convention and ran a...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 620
Views: 52233

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

The Swiss had a national referendum and voted down joining the EU.

They know enough history to have good reason to distrust their neighbors.
by jhogue
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)
Replies: 11
Views: 1621

Re: Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)

SGOL is an American-based gold ETF, but its gold is held in Switzerland. It is not ideal, but it does provide some measure of geographical diversification. The net expense ratio (0.39%) is a little higher than IAU or GLD, but it has been in operation for a number of years and has total assets of abo...
by jhogue
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How to handle 529
Replies: 6
Views: 565

Re: How to handle 529

I came to a similar conclusion: don’t contribute to a 529 until you have fully funded every possible tax-deferred vehicle for retirement. You can always pull money from a retirement account later to pay off college loans, even after the child graduates from college. You can’t pull money from a 529 t...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 44
Views: 2603

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

Yup.

The Soviets also slaughtered anarchists in Barcelona during the Spanish Civil War in preference to fighting Franco and the fascists. See George Orwell's Homage to Catalonia.
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18
Replies: 47
Views: 10900

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18

In case of a return to deflation, LTTs and EE bonds will outperform STTs and I bonds. It’s the barbell effect. You won’t have to buy more long bonds; they will rise in price. However, unlike TIPS, which can (and have) gone into negative yield, I bonds are guaranteed by the US Treasury to not to go b...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 44
Views: 2603

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

I think KBG is right. Libertarianism may be theoretically satisfying, but it is practically problematic.

Centuries later, the Moors still mourn the loss of Andalusia and the Turks believe they should not have stopped at the gates of Vienna.
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18
Replies: 47
Views: 10900

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18

As a longer-term investor in I bonds (ie., over 5 and hopefully up to 30 years), I doubt that it will make much difference when I buy I bonds in 2019. At present, I buy-and-hold I bonds primarily for their guaranteed inflation protection, 30 year tax deferral, and state tax exemption. The I bond yie...
by jhogue
Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Max [maxmyinterest.com]
Replies: 41
Views: 6972

Re: Max [maxmyinterest.com]

I like using Fidelity to buy and own T-bills directly. It completely avoids the manager risk associated with ETFs and mutual funds. Also, the expense ratio (0.00% !!!) simply cannot be beat. When I first started buying T-bills, I wondered if Fidelity might be tempted to pump up the bid/ask spread to...
by jhogue
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Max [maxmyinterest.com]
Replies: 41
Views: 6972

Re: Max [maxmyinterest.com]

Note the effects of the FOMC’s deliberate flattening of the yield curve on investors’ Deep Cash choices: 3 month Treasury = 1.96% 1 year Treasury = 2.37% 30 year Treasury = 2.93% 1. Given that a 1 year T-bill now captures an astounding 93% of the yield of a 30 year T-bond, AND that the FOMC is trans...
by jhogue
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
Replies: 202
Views: 31313

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Yeah, I know.

My caveat emptor about munis and corporate bonds applies to holders of VPs as well as more orthodox holders of the HBPP.

Are you recommending investors buy munis and corporate bonds?
by jhogue
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 620
Views: 52233

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

Actually, I suspect that Obama regards his poor percentage with SCOTUS as a badge of honor. He probably told his attorney general and solicitor general to go out and "push the envelope" by taking as many cases as possible to the high court, on the plausible theory that at least some of these defeats...