Search found 55 matches

by var
Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 4
Views: 1681

Var - Crypto Variable Port

Hi Folks, I decided to track a simple crypto port. Let's see how it does. Just to keep it simple I am using BTC and ETH. I have other altcoins but I have excluded them to keep things simple. starting with 20k on 12.28.21 *formating is a little off. CRYPTO USD crypto price qty BTC 10000 48465 0.20633...
by var
Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 21327

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:55 am
var wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:28 pm
However, if you're going to buy something I suggest starting with BTC first like 5% allocation.
And now the question is when to rebalance out of crypto. What would be the rebalancing bands?
Good Question!

Rough guess 5%-10% higher than normal PP.
by var
Sat Dec 25, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?
Replies: 11
Views: 2517

Re: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?

Would it be crazy to put a significant % of your nest egg in yield farming Stablecoin crytpos (like USDC, USDT, TUSD, Dai, etc) instead of the PP? There are quite a few of these "farms" yielding around 20% or more a year on cryptos that theoretically stay put at $1/coin. Yes depends because securit...
by var
Sat Dec 25, 2021 11:48 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 21327

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

I spent 100+ hours trying to recover my BTC that was forever lost after losing my private key. All for naught. actually there only finite amount BTC ever to be mined. 20% will be lost... people forget the keys or throwing away the old computer,etc. I did the same with ETH took me 50+ hours to recov...
by var
Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 21327

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Some musings from Cullen Roche about how gold has failed to respond to the $6T the US gov pushed into the US economy, unlike bitcoin (maybe). PP allocation gets mentioned heavily. https://www.pragcap.com/did-bitcoin-kill-golds-monetary-utility/ Personally I still don't get cryptos, but I guess Marc...
by var
Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?
Replies: 6
Views: 1882

Re: PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?

This article covers the issue for you. ;) https://wiki.earlyretirementextreme.com/wiki/Permanent_Portfolio#401(k)_lemonade thanks >> 401(k) lemonade The PP can be difficult to implement in 401(k) plans. Stock index funds and money market funds are frequently available, but suitable bond funds are r...
by var
Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?
Replies: 6
Views: 1882

PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?

Hi guys,

My company IRA has no long term bond equivelant.....

most is 10 year equivalent? will that be sufficient?

what allocation do u suggest?

i know it wont be perfect.

i am thinking maybe 50 pct spy..25 pct 10 year 25 pct money market?

thoughts?
by var
Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423115

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Maybe charting was off that day.

No I don’t own it. It’s trading volume way to low.

I been watching it does have a lot of tracking errors.
by var
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423115

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Ubt imploded yesterday. -47 pct
C6EAFCB5-368A-459D-8E52-C70051354C4E.png
C6EAFCB5-368A-459D-8E52-C70051354C4E.png (551.96 KiB) Viewed 29065 times

Any news why?

Proshares usually good with other products.

One needs to be careful
by var
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423115

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Good heads up on ULGD... i sold it when it was in the OTC. I feel leveraged ETF to be safer then ETN. UGL might not be a perfect solution. but a little NUGT with it might add to the leverage. Otherwise, my Variable PP is doing pretty well. On the bond side. the 3X fund and 2X seem to have considerab...
by var
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1195
Views: 255407

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

That would be typical.....but so far futures down at least now and oil up ....I don’t hold these very long at all ......especially sdow that was down something like 22% today ..... Right now my one day a week of work is on hold so if I make a days pay I am happy what kind of gain are you holding fo...
by var
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423115

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I also noticed an tracking error with TLT and UBT today.

3.16.20
TLT +6.48%
UBT 9.94%
TMF +16.76
by var
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423115

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Great stuff.. I sort of legged in to Levaraged PP. I bought some UGLD and TMF. I didn't buy any 3X SPY because i thought the market was too high and weighted for a pullback. So far so good. I have been buy 3x SPY ETF as the market keeps dropping. What are people using as rebalance bands for 3x PP? s...
by var
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423115

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hi all, My 2019 leveraged PP results are in. I implemented this 5 years ago and have gotten a 14.93% CAGR. I rebalance yearly. Last year was spectacular, a whopping 67.71%! Here's a 5 year screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x2019.jpg Take care. -Ozzy ozzy, just to clarify you keep the same all...
by var
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
Replies: 17
Views: 10544

Re: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals

are u using real money to do this?
by var
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: XIV SVXY LEAP
Replies: 9
Views: 6302

Re: XIV SVXY LEAP

hey guys so far this is my experience but a  LEAP call i think in jan when market was in turmoil... sold got out even weeks ago. bought svxy shares instead (this thing moves like an option so u might as have shares to not worry about time decay) up 11% so far.... i prob gonna sell it soon when its u...
by var
Tue Feb 23, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown
Replies: 9
Views: 5147

Re: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown

If you use SH S&P500 SHORT ETF, in a Dual Momentum pairing with the S&P500 SPY LONG ETF, and just swap back and forth between the two based on the simple DM trading rules, you have better CAGR, Sharpe, and MaxDD than buy-and-hold SHY alone! That's just amazing to me, and completely surprising. Some...
by var
Tue Feb 23, 2016 6:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: LEAPS PP
Replies: 160
Views: 73505

Re: LEAPS PP

prob the best way to do it set up ameritrade account...

then enable paper trading with think or swim... (quotes are delayed, unless you have enough cash in ur trading account)

thinkorswim got the best interface for options.
by var
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: time to pick up gold/silver miners?
Replies: 11
Views: 6209

Re: time to pick up gold/silver miners?

looks like a good time to buy it... but only for trading i'd prob sell shortly after...
gold still looks like its in a down trend.
by var
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43438

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

depends on your wife spending habits...

but i think 4 million my number.... it really depends where you live... car you want to drive etc..
by var
Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43438

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

I will be fine that's what asset allocations about.  If spy goes down and Tlt will go up. That's not always the case, though it's been pretty consistent in the past few decades of declining interest rates.  Before that period, the correlations weren't negative, they were closer to zero. of course. ...
by var
Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43438

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

My guess.  We get a big nasty drop.  And we go right back up again. 
by var
Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43438

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

+1 Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying.  That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc.  then at some point You'll be. In panic. Also correct me if I am wrong.  Boggle heads don't use TLT.  they rather use diversified bond fund.  I think ...
by var
Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43438

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

CraigR has something to say about TIPS - check the Gold FAQ or his website.  Among other issues, TIPS won't compensate for losses in other assets the way gold will.  At best it will tread water, and that's if you have 100% faith in the CPI. The last several posts here should probably be moved to th...
by var
Sat Jan 16, 2016 6:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43438

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Why? If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them. Stocks are still insanely overvalued. But they are less overvalued than they were when everyone thought buying them was a good idea. The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates the stock market the most, but it'...