Search found 817 matches

by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I swear on a Bible, or whatever book you want, that I am not mathjak (sp?)! And, I don't share his view of the PP, or his tendencies towards active trading/market timing in the least.  I'm very risk/loss averse, and willingly would trade off some return for lower volatility. Gold is a bit confusing ...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I'm not sure how you got the 1.45% figure (I don't know how to calculate distributions exactly and their effect on taxes), but let's assume it's correct. It would apply to half of the portfolio, so the net decrease would be about .75%, which would bring the CAGR down to about 9%, still quite respect...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

VTSAX lost 36.99% in 2008.
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Wouldn't those happen in any stock fund? So, if I had VTSAX instead, I'd pay similar taxes, right?  Although, according to Morningstar, the distributions from VTSAX look like dividend income, where the ones from PARWX are a mix of long-term capital gains and dividends.  Historically, I believe that ...
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

According to a cagr calculator I found, the cagr of the portfolio would be 9.79%, which sounds very decent to me, considering the safety of the portfolio.
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Ok. So, I ran them again, from 2006, using the 60/40 bands and subtracting the fees from each segment each year. At the end of the ten year period, $10,000 would have grown to $25,603, which translates to an average annual yield on the original investment of 15.456%.  I don't know how to get a CAGR ...
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Correction - the fees would only be on half of the portfolio, so they'd be lower than that.

I may run the numbers again, with the 60/40 re-balancing, and take the fees out, and re-calculate things - it's just a little tedious, but shouldn't be that hard.
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Yes, the fees grow with the investments - I do understand that.  But I wouldn't be likely to have a lot invested in my portfolio, or depending on it for income - it would just be for fun.  So, even if one got up to a $50,000 total, that would only be $500/yr in fees. And, as I said, I like the selec...
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Also, you have to compare apples to apples. Comparing results of a very active investment that requires frequent trading/market timing, and invests in higher risk assets with the PP isn't doing that. And, there's a lot of personal subjective stuff involved in making the judgement about what's "bette...
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Also, other possible downsides like storage, finding a reliable dealer/testing coins, etc.  But I didn't mean to pick on gold, I just used it as an example of downsides to investment choices.  People who invest in gold undoubtedly feel that the upsides outweigh the downsides. So, for me, the upside ...
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Thanks! It's designed to invest in companies that are good to their employees, and I like that a lot. All of your comments about actively managed funds are spot on, as far as I can tell, and the expense ratio is a bit high.  But, then again, with gold you pay over spot price initially+sales tax when...
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I mean that it hasn't had a single down year over that period.

And, if you re-balance annually, but only with 60/40 bands, you can do even better, but portfolio visualizer won't let you try that option.
by jafs
Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32544

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Hello to all! I've been reading/lurking for some time now, and this is my first post.  I'd like to offer my summary of what I've seen (hope it's respectful enough to long-time users). Most of the criticisms/complaints about the PP seem to be based on a misunderstanding of what it's supposed to do, a...