Search found 817 matches

by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Well, that's where I started. Individually, people will generally have less income to spend (and be worried about the economy and their job), and so they won't be able to afford higher prices (or just tighten up spending due to fear).  Then businesses will either lower their prices, reducing inflati...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I'm still not quite understanding it.

Maybe it's just too complex for me to wrap my head around.
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Right, that's why I'm asking, sophie. I'm trying to figure what sort of risk is involved from this point on with a stock/bond portfolio, in a general sort of way. Not sure that government policies created stagflation, but I do think that they (especially the Fed) aren't particularly effective at dea...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why the U.S. Pays More Than Other Countries for Drugs
Replies: 13
Views: 2755

Re: Why the U.S. Pays More Than Other Countries for Drugs

Also, there was a law passed during the Bush II administration that prohibited the government from negotiating with drug companies.

So, whereas before, as a large buyer (Medicare), it could have negotiated prices downward, since then it can't do that.
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Sure, that makes sense. But, government policy wouldn't be aimed at producing/extending stagflation, since it sucks.  Fed policy has the dual mandate of unemployment/inflation - it wants to create conditions for higher employment and also control inflation. Stagflation would sort of be the opposite ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How to Help Your Teenage Daughter Stay Healthy and Confident
Replies: 2
Views: 973

Re: How to Help Your Teenage Daughter Stay Healthy and Confident

Well, that's only feasible for a small minority of the population. One can live in this country and question the cultural biases/pressures.  It takes being mindful and aware of them and how they affect us, and talking about it with children. Analyzing and understanding how advertising works and why ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I understand hyperinflation as another extreme economic condition.  But it doesn't explain why normal market forces wouldn't affect stagflation. And, that's sort of what I thought, that it would be very unusual, because of market forces.  And also that we might have learned from past mistakes about ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I wonder if you can help me understand something.  It seems that when stocks and bonds (especially ltg bonds) both do badly the culprit is "stagflation", which I take to mean a combination of a poor economy with high inflation. What I don't get is how that can persist for very long - inflation is ge...
by jafs
Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

There was a study by some brokerage house showing that their clients had done best who had forgotten about their portfolio (some had even died). I'm very aware of the ways in which it's hard for people to stick to a strategy, given fluctuations in the markets and understandable psychological tendenc...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Well, the kld index etf performs virtually identically to vstmx in my idea.

The portfolio loses a little less in 2008, and has a slightly smaller max DD, and gets a very slightly lower cagr.

But it's probably a bit less risky as well.

Definitely worth considering - I appreciate your input.
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Those are interesting - thanks for that. I'll definitely look into them, especially the KLD400 index fund.  But, it's been around for an even shorter time than PARWX, and PARWX has beaten it every year except one.  I already checked the tax stuff, and it's a non issue for us. I've done a fair amount...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

That's interesting - I'm not sure I'd agree that it's just human nature to be greedy. It does seem to be a major factor in this country, and it's sort of supported/promoted by our culture.  As far as systemic changes, the Taft-Hartley Act seems to have been a strong cause of the decline of unions, w...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I'd say greed and the diversion of gains to those at the top are a major factor. The average CEO in the 50's made about 30-50x an average employee, and today they make about 200x as much. If there were an index fund with lower costs that tracked the best companies to work for, that would be interest...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I'm sure that's true, and it would definitely be a concern. And, yes, you're right about the secondary market in that way - the thing I like about PARWX is that I'd be benefiting from companies that offer "outstanding workplaces", rather than ones that s***w their employees to do well.  I'm old enou...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Thanks for looking at it sophie. You could be right that the tech sector has done well for the reasons you give, of course.  I'm not good at analyzing things like that.  But if you look at the annual returns, they follow the general trend of the total market, just a bit better here and there, and th...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Thanks - I appreciate that. Being risk/loss averse as I am, any investment strategy makes me a bit nervous.  That's why I wouldn't use it for meeting any financial needs, just for fun.  One idea I've had is to donate gains in the portfolio to charities - the easy way to do that would be to take any ...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Maybe I should make that my forum name  :D Thanks - it's not a big deal for me, since I'm not even invested in my idea yet.  We just got an IRA out of all markets and into a money market, and will do the same with our other smaller one, as we're about a year out from retirement. It's been fun resear...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Maybe that's it.

I also found his comments odd, and generally missing the point of the PP.
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I understand that - I was just saying that PARWX looks like a good substitute for VTSAX to me, and matches HB's original idea for the stock part of the PP.  In my earlier posts, I called my idea a "boglehead/PP" hybrid - it uses the simple two fund approach of bogleheads, with the PP idea of combini...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

  ;D

I did think my posts were substantially better in terms of grammar/punctuation/etc. than his.

How do you edit a post on here after posting it?  I've been posting one after another because I didn't see how to do that.

Wait, I just figured it out!
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

In other online forums that I've participated in, moderators can look at members' ip addresses.

If they promise not to use/share that information in any other way, they have my permission to look at it, compare it with mathjak's, and report back to the forum that they're not the same.
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I would gladly do that, except for privacy concerns. What else would convince you?  It's odd to me, since I have very different views than he did, and a much more positive take on the PP.  In fact, I probably understated how exciting it was for me to come across it, and how it spurred a lot of resea...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Thanks. I get some of that, but some of it is still a bit murky for me - there have been a number of threads that questioned gold's relationship to some of those. If I understood it right, HB's idea was that gold would protect against hyperinflation or shtf scenarios - I'm pretty sure we won't have ...
by jafs
Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32540

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I swear on a Bible, or whatever book you want, that I am not mathjak (sp?)! And, I don't share his view of the PP, or his tendencies towards active trading/market timing in the least.  I'm very risk/loss averse, and willingly would trade off some return for lower volatility. Gold is a bit confusing ...