Search found 817 matches

by jafs
Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond funds are deadly?
Replies: 24
Views: 8211

Re: Bond funds are deadly?

I think MG has a point about those.

They are required to buy back shares at any time and give cash back to sellers.  That cash has to come from somewhere, and if there are a lot of sellers and few other buyers of those shares, where would that money come from?
by jafs
Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Hillary Files
Replies: 67
Views: 10613

Re: The Hillary Files

I don't know for sure either way.

But, it seems possible to me that information that was previously not classified later gets classified for any number of reasons.
by jafs
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4312
Views: 661054

Re: Figuring Out Religion

I agree with most of that. Certainly that's one of the fundamental questions - why believe the Bible rather than some other religious texts? But I think that the nature of religious belief is outside of what can be "proven" or "correct" or "true" - it's just a choice to believe certain things, given...
by jafs
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:28 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Hillary Files
Replies: 67
Views: 10613

Re: The Hillary Files

Well, I'm not at all sure that's true.

It could easily have been determined to be classified well after those e-mails.

We'll see what the FBI investigation concludes - my guess is that she won't be found guilty of any major transgressions.
by jafs
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4312
Views: 661054

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Interesting thread. It's clear that believers have a self-reinforcing set of circular logic that sustains their beliefs, and that no challenges from outside that circle would be effective at challenging them.  Sometimes even challenges from inside the circle (ie. Bible passages) don't work at all. B...
by jafs
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond funds are deadly?
Replies: 24
Views: 8211

Re: Bond funds are deadly?

So, if I get this right, a bond etf is as safe as holding individual bonds?  Although that way, you don't have a guaranteed buyer if/when you want to sell.
by jafs
Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Hillary Files
Replies: 67
Views: 10613

Re: The Hillary Files

Well, the question there is whether or not those e-mails contained classified information back then.

If things have become classified since then, it's much less of an issue.
by jafs
Thu Dec 03, 2015 2:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

It seems to me that with any long-term investment strategy, following short-term trends too closely makes it harder to stay with your strategy. If you understand the volatility of the portfolio you've chosen, and are ok with that, then under a wide range of "normal" conditions, you should feel ok ju...
by jafs
Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

That makes sense, Fred.

Is this really a PP though?  The even split between the asset classes seems to be a major feature of the idea.
by jafs
Thu Dec 03, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

It seems extremely counter-intuitive that a very cash heavy portfolio would be the best way to beat inflation.
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 2:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Ok, so it looks like it started with high oil prices.  But, again, when prices go up, if people don't have a lot of money, they'll adjust their spending habits (although lots of stuff uses/needs energy).  So maybe people bought a lot less, and that pushed the economy downwards, And, then, because we...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Right, that's what I'm trying to understand - why that didn't happen, when it seems like the most likely/common sense outcome. And I wasn't arguing that the government should be able to fix the problem, in fact given the limited tools the Fed uses, it seems like a hard problem for them to deal with ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Well, that's where I started. Individually, people will generally have less income to spend (and be worried about the economy and their job), and so they won't be able to afford higher prices (or just tighten up spending due to fear).  Then businesses will either lower their prices, reducing inflati...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I'm still not quite understanding it.

Maybe it's just too complex for me to wrap my head around.
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Right, that's why I'm asking, sophie. I'm trying to figure what sort of risk is involved from this point on with a stock/bond portfolio, in a general sort of way. Not sure that government policies created stagflation, but I do think that they (especially the Fed) aren't particularly effective at dea...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why the U.S. Pays More Than Other Countries for Drugs
Replies: 13
Views: 2755

Re: Why the U.S. Pays More Than Other Countries for Drugs

Also, there was a law passed during the Bush II administration that prohibited the government from negotiating with drug companies.

So, whereas before, as a large buyer (Medicare), it could have negotiated prices downward, since then it can't do that.
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Sure, that makes sense. But, government policy wouldn't be aimed at producing/extending stagflation, since it sucks.  Fed policy has the dual mandate of unemployment/inflation - it wants to create conditions for higher employment and also control inflation. Stagflation would sort of be the opposite ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How to Help Your Teenage Daughter Stay Healthy and Confident
Replies: 2
Views: 973

Re: How to Help Your Teenage Daughter Stay Healthy and Confident

Well, that's only feasible for a small minority of the population. One can live in this country and question the cultural biases/pressures.  It takes being mindful and aware of them and how they affect us, and talking about it with children. Analyzing and understanding how advertising works and why ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I understand hyperinflation as another extreme economic condition.  But it doesn't explain why normal market forces wouldn't affect stagflation. And, that's sort of what I thought, that it would be very unusual, because of market forces.  And also that we might have learned from past mistakes about ...
by jafs
Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

I wonder if you can help me understand something.  It seems that when stocks and bonds (especially ltg bonds) both do badly the culprit is "stagflation", which I take to mean a combination of a poor economy with high inflation. What I don't get is how that can persist for very long - inflation is ge...
by jafs
Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

There was a study by some brokerage house showing that their clients had done best who had forgotten about their portfolio (some had even died). I'm very aware of the ways in which it's hard for people to stick to a strategy, given fluctuations in the markets and understandable psychological tendenc...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Well, the kld index etf performs virtually identically to vstmx in my idea.

The portfolio loses a little less in 2008, and has a slightly smaller max DD, and gets a very slightly lower cagr.

But it's probably a bit less risky as well.

Definitely worth considering - I appreciate your input.
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

Those are interesting - thanks for that. I'll definitely look into them, especially the KLD400 index fund.  But, it's been around for an even shorter time than PARWX, and PARWX has beaten it every year except one.  I already checked the tax stuff, and it's a non issue for us. I've done a fair amount...
by jafs
Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP
Replies: 192
Views: 32543

Re: This Forum & Dissenting Opinions of the HBPP

That's interesting - I'm not sure I'd agree that it's just human nature to be greedy. It does seem to be a major factor in this country, and it's sort of supported/promoted by our culture.  As far as systemic changes, the Taft-Hartley Act seems to have been a strong cause of the decline of unions, w...